Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
Tomorrow, 14 December, the Senate of the Republic’s commissions will begin deliberations on the already questioned “Plan B” for reforming the structure, responsibilities, and powers of the National Electoral Institute (INE). It is not an electoral reform, strictly speaking. It is, instead, an attempt to dismember the hitherto autonomous body in charge of directing and conducting the country’s electoral processes. The President’s idea is to weaken the body as much as possible so that it cannot adequately oversee the process and, more than anything else, so that it cannot impose its control over candidates and parties that ignore and violate the law before, during, and after the electoral process.
The INE reform’s centerpiece is the permission for public officials to participate in the electoral process, supposedly promoting their achievements as governments at the federal, state, and municipal levels. What is the real interest here? Simple. López Obrador wants authorization to campaign day and night in favor of Morena’s presidential candidate throughout the national territory in a legal manner.
AMLO is convinced that if he does not campaign, and legally, it is very likely that his candidate will not win the elections. He wants to accompany and direct Morena’s campaign personally. Still, he does not want to be facing permanent legal trials questioning the legality of his conduct and facing the discredit that this could bring. He knows that such actions could jeopardize the national and international legitimacy of the electoral result with political and legal questioning.
This is the president’s genuine interest in his reform proposal. To legalize his direct, daily, and permanent intervention in the 2024 campaign. But it also uncovers his fears. It is becoming clear to him several facts that he must take into account in the face of a problematic election if he wants to win.
Firstly, as we have all seen, he has seen that his popularity in the polls does not save him from the majority’s negative opinions regarding his government’s programs and setbacks. The same poll that gives him a thumbs-up vote personally does not save him from failing on issues of security, health, the economy, corruption, women’s rights, violence, and education. In other words, his position is clearly fragile in the eyes of the electorate, and he knows it. He seems to consider himself unassailable. That is why he wants to go out campaigning, even with the intention of “carrying” his presidential candidate.
Secondly, the President has surely also seen, looking at the performance of Morena’s presidential pre-candidates, that their collective appeal and roots in the electorate’s social imaginary are extremely fragile. None of the three fascinates. Morena’s members go out of their way for one or the other, but that is actually of little relevance to their impact on addressing the electorate at large. In reality, they are of little interest because none of them outlines a policy proposal. They are engaged in a popularity contest, not a political debate. And, from the point of view of their respective physical appearances, none of them attract attention. Quite the opposite, in fact.
Seeing the cost-benefit of starting the succession process so early may have served the President well for his theatrical purposes. Still, for the pre-candidates, it represents an attrition that reveals them as poor thinkers, lacking imagination and tied to the leash of the circus owner. It is an unflattering image.
These considerations, and perhaps some others, have led the President to propose reforms that will allow him to campaign openly and legally in support of Morena’s presidential candidate. He is convinced that he can win the election. What happens to the country during and after the election is irrelevant to him. And the only thing he is interested in is winning in 2024, by hook or by crook.
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