Raudel Avila*
Dr. Luis Rubio is among the most prestigious Mexican political analysts in our country and abroad. In his new book just published, “En sus marcas! Mexico Towards 2024”, he addresses, among many other things, the challenges that the country will face once the current administration ends.
1.- This book reflects a relatively pessimistic tone. Have your long-term expectations for Mexico’s future diminished?
The country changed course in its eagerness to develop since the 1980s, but it encountered multiple obstacles, essentially of a political nature, which those governments proved incapable of dealing with. President López Obrador came to power without those commitments or ties, which gave him the enormous opportunity to undertake crucial political reforms that would effectively free the country to join the most prosperous nations in the world. Still, he missed the opportunity by trying to return to an ungraspable but also undesirable past. Hence the concerns that the book reflects.
2.- Your confidence in the validity of liberalism as a proposal for a dignified life is maintained in this book. How to ensure sustainability and popular support for the liberal model in the 21st century?
It is enough to observe the creativity of Mexicans and their eagerness to develop to realize that the country’s potential as a liberal society and market economy is immense. Street vendors, migrants searching for better opportunities, and the milusos (handymen) are tangible examples of both the spirit and the enormous shortcomings and inadequacies of the education system, health care, and the government in general. The problem is not one of popular support but of governmental capacity (and willingness) to create conditions for development.
3.- You have spent a lifetime studying relations between Mexico and the United States. What is your assessment of the outlook for these relations after 2024 and for the coming years?
The United States continues to be the world’s largest market and, therefore, our great opportunity to produce and export goods and services. The relationship will always be complex, but as we have seen in past decades, this complexity can be managed when there is the will to do so but, above all, when there is clarity about the objective being pursued. If Mexico “gets its act together,” as the advert says, and advances its development in part by exploiting the advantages of the neighborhood, we would gradually reduce the gaps in levels of growth and, therefore, the sources of conflict. The opportunity is immense; the question is whether we will seize it.
4.- What can Mexico do to maintain healthy relations with China and the United States in the context of such a deep conflict between these two countries?
The US-China conflict has no prospect of a solution, which raises global risks. Still, this is an excellent opportunity for Mexico to attract investment that would otherwise have gone to the Asian giant. On the other hand, geopolitical circumstances make the Mexico-China relationship a triangular factor: it is no coincidence that Chinese investment in Mexico is proportionally much lower than in other countries in the region. Mexico is located in the North American zone of influence, and it is in this context that this complex triangle must be understood.
5.- In your book, you detail a series of proposals for the next government to get back on track. What are the most urgent measures you would propose to the presidential candidates?
It seems to me that the crucial thing is not to return to a past that was rejected by the electorate but to adopt a transcendental objective that brings the whole population together and, therefore, contributes not only to the country’s progress but also to reducing or eliminating the political tensions that characterize us. I would propose that we acquire a real obsession with accelerated growth. Once we are on that track, all problems and obstacles can be identified and addressed. A big goal, which attracts and excites everyone, would force problem-solving and focus the entire population, from the president down to the most modest citizen, on problem-solving.
6.- You detail the ideological and administrative inertia hindering the country’s development. Why have they not been overcome in so many decades, and how can they be overcome?
It is not so much the inertia as the small interests that become enormous obstacles by distorting both political and economic processes. Electoral law enshrines three parties in a world of privilege that removes any incentive for them to seek power, supposedly their raison d’être. One union can hinder investment in the entire southern part of the country, condemning it to poverty. Tax or tariff favors distort all production processes. The country is full of these elements that seem small but become insurmountable obstacles when added together.
7.- In this book, you address the dispute between democracies and autocracies. Do you feel confident that democracies will win? What role does Mexico play in this conflict?
Mexico has an extraordinarily fragile democracy that has been further weakened in this six-year term, making us one of the examples of the battle in this area. But progress and setbacks in democracy depend not only on the will of politicians but also on citizens assuming their role and forcing politicians to submit to the law, be accountable and stop violating their rights. Mexico has progressed, but its democratic future is still doubtful.
8.- Some people set apocalyptic scenarios around artificial intelligence. What is your assessment of this issue?
I only read about it, and I am far from having understood all its implications, but it is clear that it is a force that will change the world. It will undoubtedly alter labor markets, how we produce, and how people interact. What is extraordinarily worrying, and I say this as a layman, is the potential for distortion of political exchanges. I mean, if you can put into the mouth of a president words that he never said or create an atmosphere of hostility, all artificially, we enter a space where nothing is real, and politics is no longer comprehensible. In other words, we enter a world of manipulation in which, in the end, no one knows what or who they work for or, ultimately, why we exist. I don’t say this in an apocalyptic tone, but the immense creative potential also has its flip side. The truth is that we still know nothing about this new world.
9.- Educational modernization is one of the priorities in your book. How can education be brought up to date hand in hand with the teachers union?
The problem is not unionism. That is an obstacle everyone tolerates because those who require the training and skills education should provide don’t demand it. The country is very unproductive and adds little value because education prevents that from changing. As long as we do not have a generalized movement to transform the education system, that minor impediment, the union, will continue to be an overwhelming wall. That is why I say that what is urgent is an obsession with growth.
10.- You underline the unacceptable inequality between the country’s North and south. Is it possible to overcome this inequality in our lifetimes?
Of course, it is possible, but it is a political challenge, which is defeating the chiefdoms that benefit from keeping the entire south of the country oppressed. These chiefdoms are not being confronted, and the infrastructure is not being developed. It is not the fault of the North: it is the responsibility of those who tolerate, or benefit from, the preservation of the status quo in that region. And that has been going on for decades. The many successful Oaxacans in Chicago prove that the impediment is not citizenship but the political environment that allows it to exist.
Thank you very much for the interview, Dr. Rubio.
*This interview was published in Spanish today by El Universal.
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