Antonio Navalón
We live in an era in which we will eventually have to look back to understand exactly what happened when the memes were gone and the few remaining newsprint papers take on their characteristic yellowish color. For now, however, we must focus on what is happening around us. We are now living and witnessing the beginning of the Mexican presidential succession campaign, which will result in the election of who will serve as the champion of the Fourth Transformation for the next six years.
The contest over who will succeed President López Obrador by Morena’s presidential pre-candidates could not have begun in a more curious or, in the end, more shocking way. However, this new electoral dispute -if it can be called that- has not brought any surprises. The political proposals and programs offered by the so-called “corcholatas” are nothing new and nothing that can truly offer a change that will ensure the development of the country. They are more concerned about how to make the president happy and win his approval than to obtain the trust and approval of those who will go to the polls on June 2, 2024.
Situations are arising in which the change of government is once again surprising everyone, as it happens when Andrés Manuel López Obrador is involved in some way or another. First, because deep down, nobody knows what is going to happen, and second, because there is no apparent logic about the process that will take place. A point in his favor is the changes of government officials representing everything in Morena. They are not momentary appointments or focused only on taking care of the chair for those who decided to leave it to aspire to something else. Two of the three new appointments have been granted to women, and, in the case of the new Secretary of the Interior, it is a surprising woman.
To occupy the Secretary of the Interior post requires a strong political experience, a lot of personal balance, and extraordinary ability and skill to manage the entire State apparatus. Whoever occupies this position is in charge – among many other functions – of managing and coordinating the different governors of the Republic and is the one who receives all the information about what is happening in the country at all times. Furthermore, according to our structure and hierarchy, she is the second authority in the country. She is the one who is in charge of mediating or trying to resolve conflicts before the waters get out of control. Undoubtedly, for some reason unknown to us but known to the President’s central core, Lopez Obrador chose a young Secretary of the Interior who previously served as Secretary of Labor without becoming news in itself.
As for the Secretary of Foreign Affairs appointment, it is curious since the entire career of diplomat and biologist Alicia Bárcena has been in the international arena. Although the new Secretary Bárcena is clearly a person with a leftist background and tendencies, her work at ECLAC and the UN and the tendencies present in developing her functions do not seem to fit with the ideological tendencies of our president.
Now let’s talk about the corcholatas. On the first day, apparently, everyone was happy. President López Obrador was seen to be satisfied with what had been accomplished, but, above all, calm in the knowledge that the continuity of his leadership and his 4T was practically assured – without omitting that the surprise and the miracle could still happen -. Then came the first attacks and notes that gave people something to discuss.
What was the need for Marcelo Ebrard to propose the creation of the Secretariat of the 4T and, even worse, to propose that the President’s son head it? Although vulgar and inaccurate, all interpretations are admissible. However, such action was a clear political failure and unacceptable for someone with the experience and trajectory of the former Chancellor and former head of government of Mexico City. As for the favorite, Claudia Sheinbaum, it could be said that although the beginning of her pre-candidacy was not optimal – considering the video in which she was captured having a confrontation with Alfonso Durazo – it is true that she has recomposed the path and that she is apparently doing things well. There is not much to talk about Ricardo Monreal; we must not forget that just a few months ago, he was willing to dissociate himself from Morena and seek candidacy elsewhere. But, besides that, everything seems to indicate that he does not look like the one who will win the election, nor is he the “ace up the president’s sleeve”.
And last but not least, it is necessary to acknowledge the performance of the Secretary of the Interior, Adán Augusto López. The man who has served as the president’s right-hand man for the last two years can be the surprise candidate. First, because of his political biography – and here I am not referring to the years of brotherhood and political companionship with the president – but since he was appointed Secretary of the Interior, it is logical, on the one hand, and surprising on the other, that he has turned out to be a credible corcholata and also with a program and a way of campaigning utterly different from the others.
Morena, which is nothing more than the platform through which the political designs of Mr. President are executed, will live in a very intense way the tensions and problems that will appear as the race for the presidential candidacy develops. With no other program than the presidential plans and with no political asset than to comply with the boss’s will, the National Regeneration Movement only seeks to materialize the end and substitution of the old regime. Other leaders or movements have needed to use Marxism or liberal theory to produce such a deep and transcendental change as the 4T is doing. It was enough for us to have a president with more willpower than ideology and who, himself, represents the most significant asset, the most excellent proposal, and the most remarkable element of political coherence in the country.
The dice are in the air, and it is not very difficult to know that somewhere, there is already a preconceived plan for all this to end on September 6, the day the next defender of the Fourth Transformation will be appointed. In the meantime, I recognize that this system of making the elections early – far from any regulation – and concentrating or limiting them to one of the players, which are those who are at the head of the government due to the notorious incapacity of their political opponents, is a curious exercise that will be worth analyzing in depth. If it were not for the indispensable need of human beings to always have a glimmer of hope for the unexpected to happen – as may be currently represented by opposition players such as Senator Xóchitl Gálvez – we would actually already be living a whole political operation that would make the electoral campaign in 2024 useless, irresponsible and wasteful.
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