Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
His actions and public words make it easy to make out AMLO’s strategy for the 2024 elections. And also how he changes his route as things happen that he did not anticipate.
Until a month ago, AMLO enjoyed a certainty: if the political situation continued as it was going, Morena’s victory in the 2024 presidential election was a foregone conclusion. And it also seemed feasible for him to dream of winning a qualified majority in both federal legislative chambers.
Several recent events, however, changed his perspective. The first notorious fact is that his corcholatas (candidates to succeed him) have turned out to be of unexpected mediocrity. Despite the gigantic public money invested in their campaigns, they simply do not connect with the general population. In any case, their events are attended only by people from social programs. There is doubt as to whether they participate because they have been forced to or because they are “faithful believers” of the 4T. There is no certainty of their vote at the time of an election. The “citizenry in general” has lost interest in the internal Morenista process, if they ever had it.
Another revealing fact is that the corcholatas are mere repeaters of presidential slogans and affirmations and do not seem to have their own proposals. What the President says in the morning, they repeat in the afternoon in his events. Every day it is evident that they are a presidential mockery.
The opposition woke up and started to act. Then Xóchitl Gálvez appeared on the scene, and the electoral game changed completely. In a few weeks, she became a competitive candidate against any Morena candidate. How was that possible, Morenistas and analysts wondered, if the corcholatas have been promoting themselves with public money through their positions in the federal government for the entire six-year term?
Xóchitl turned out to be immediately competitive, thanks to the presidential aggression. She has characteristics that connect to the broad social spectrums of the country. She comes from an economically disadvantaged background, has grown up economically through self-effort, does not belong to any opposition political party, is quick to answer the President, is not afraid of public debate, and can work as part of a team. And she is a woman.
Suddenly, all certainties were clouded for the President. The victory of his presidential candidate is in doubt, and even more so, the possibility of winning and exercising control over Congress. Existential doubt is the mother of anguish and depression. The President launched a furious attack against Xochitl. What does he intend to achieve with his very personal campaign against a woman of the opposition?
Undoubtedly, he would like to derail Xochitl’s candidacy entirely and make her disappear. He trembles at the specter of a debate between Claudia and Xochitl. In agreement with Peña Nieto, he derailed Ricardo Anaya’s candidacy in 2018 with unsubstantiated judicial accusations. He knows that, under certain conditions, this is possible. Anaya was a propitious victim. Xóchitl is not, however. The current situation is very different. Now AMLO would be the one throwing the guillotine. She would be the victim of persecution by the oppressive State.
If he cannot stop Xóchitl’s candidacy, AMLO has an evident second intention. He thinks he has 60% of the population, and the opposition has 40%. What he wants to avoid is that swathes of Morenista voters feel attracted to the opposition candidacy, and Xóchitl in particular, during the campaign and abandon the 4T on the spot. Therefore, his campaign against Xóchitl also serves to refresh the minds of his followers as to why to vote for Morena: against the conservatives, the rich, the looters, the classists, racists, and fascists. And against a phony like Xóchitl, who went from selling jelly to being a millionaire. How does that happen without corruption? the President asks.
He knows that the Morenista soft vote is fickle. So much so that in the 2021 elections, the opposition (with MC) won 2 million votes more than the Morena bloc. Suddenly, the possibility of being defeated in 2024 appeared as a ghost in the President’s mind. And he is panicked.
[email protected]
@rpascoep
Further Reading: