Special Reports Archives

The Weight (Peso) of Uncertainty.

February 11, 2021

Photo: A G Cuesta on iStock The preferential bill sent by the Mexican president to reform the electricity sector, which seeks to give the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) all kinds of undue advantages over private investment in electricity generation, in violation of the Trade Agreement with the United States and Canada (TMEC, USMCA or CUSMA, …

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México 2021: Risks and Opportunities

January 17, 2021

Image: Alpha Spirit on iStock It is hard to be optimistic about the Mexican economy considering the chaotic situation created by the pandemic efforts’ mismanagement. At best, giving the AMLO administration the benefit of the doubt, the official number of casualties for covid so far is 138,000 and growing fast, ranking as the third …

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Risks and Opportunities 2021

January 15, 2021January 15, 2021

Photo: Anni Roenkae on Pexels 2020 witnessed once-in-a-century swings in the economy, policy, and markets. The bosses of The Eurasia Group begin their new year salutation with the following statement: “At the start of 2021, the United States is the most powerful, politically divided, and economically unequal of the world’s industrial democracies. China is America’s …

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What went wrong with our forecast?

November 29, 2020November 28, 2020

Photo: Francescoch on iStock Four months ago, we published a report on the Mexican Economy that indicated the imminent collapse of the public finances and its consequences on the economy as a whole ( https://sepgra.com/mexico-on-the-verge-of-the-perfect-storm/ ). Still, it didn’t happen. What went wrong with our projections, or what caused a change in the government revenues’ …

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World Economic Outlook

October 15, 2020October 14, 2020

World Economic Outlook, October 2020: A Long and Difficult Ascent Share and Enjoy !Shares

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Post Conventions Spirit

February 22, 2021September 3, 2020

Photo: Richard Lee on Unsplash All signs indicate that the 2020 US presidential election will be contentious, and the result most likely be bitterly contested, regardless of who wins. The degree of polarization experienced nine weeks before the election, continues to be exacerbated by tweets, public statements, and actions taking place in different parts …

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Economy down, Market up, Does it make sense?

October 9, 2020August 17, 2020

Photo by Zdeněk Macháček on Unsplash While the economy registered a significant drop in this quarter, the market indexes skyrocketed. The fastest 30% drawdown in the history of global equities in the first quarter, followed by the most substantial 50-day advance in market history in the second quarter. It proves that markets are driven …

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Mexico on the Verge of the Perfect Storm.

February 9, 2021August 1, 2020

Photo by Michael Rogers at Unsplash Mexico on the Verge of the Perfect Storm Contrary to the official view, the worst is not over. As a matter of fact, it is about to begin. Springtime arrived, and with it, the effects of a lockdown caused by a tiny virus. Whole industries shut down, leaving …

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Economic Policy in times of Coronavirus, two approaches

February 22, 2021June 27, 2020

Economic policy in times of Coronavirus, two approaches It is interesting to observe in a graph the correlation between the deluge of money released by the Federal Reserve Board since March, and its effect on the S&P 500 index. The moment the funds start to flow, the direction of the curve reverses its course …

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