How to constrain AMLO?

, August 13, 2023

Ricardo Pascoe Pierce

There is a discussion among opposing forces of different signs on how to limit or manage López Obrador politically. The debate concerns how to counteract his populist discourse when populism is advancing worldwide, threatening democratic liberalism. More recently, the discussion revolves around whether it is convenient to attack the President head-on during the presidential campaign or to ignore him entirely and focus on the political proposals offered by the opposition as the best option to beat Morena at the polls.

In Mexico, the idea permeated, since 2000, that the democratic and autonomous institutions in formation were strong and consolidated enough to face the challenges of populism, whose primary function is always the destruction of institutions.

AMLO came to power and called for a popular consultation lacking all representativeness and legality, which allowed him to justify canceling the Texcoco airport project. This has been the norm in his government ever since.

However, his style of governing through the “mañaneras“, denouncing and polarizing opponents and agreeing on courses of action only with the members of his legislative benches, has served to sustain his level of approval, comparable to the level maintained by Calderón during his presidential term. This is so despite leading a government of scarce and meager achievements.

What has marked the difference between his government and the previous ones is that he gained control over the Congress of the Union. He started with a qualified majority in 2018, the same that he lost in 2021 in the Chamber of Deputies.

Polls indicate that his party is still in the first place of preferences, although Xóchitl Gálvez is getting closer to his presidential pre-candidates. The big question is: will it be necessary to attack AMLO in the campaign even if he is not a candidate? Or, due to his popularity, will it be better not to inflate his presence in the campaign, keeping the debate with the Morenista candidate, who will be a lesser contender?

Both arguments have their virtues and defects. It is not a simple question. In principle, not allowing the presidential presence and popularity to become central to the campaign is an obvious necessity. But, how to avoid his presence in the campaign if, knowing AMLO, he will seek to be present all the time, publicly debating and ordering government actions in favor of Morena, even against the law, as he does now?

It is even possible that AMLO will deliberately promote his illegal intervention in the campaign, looking for a justification to object to the political conditions of the process, to enable the cancellation of the elections before, during, or after the recount of the votes, depending on how the results are going for his candidate. Having the Army on his side will allow him to declare a State of Exception in the country and rule by decree. With AMLO, anything is possible. His addiction to power is psychopathic.

Inevitably, the opposing candidacy will have to constrain a president determined to intervene in the electoral process, using his popularity to make his candidate win. (And, by the way, to be totally indebted to him). But, on the other hand, the opposition will have to emphasize its democratic, tolerant, and inclusive agenda before the Morenista candidate to try to make this the campaign’s central debate, not the presidential delimitation.