Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
How are the Russian war and Mexico similar? In ideological imposition, the promotion of hatred, and the refusal to dialogue. Of course, that is where the obvious similarities end. Mexico does not face an invading army that destroys its cities, the genocide committed by Russian troops, nor the threats of using “tactical” nuclear weapons.
But the dynamic trend is similar. The leaders of Mexico and Russia share the idea of wanting to be seen as the bearers of a “historic mission”, albeit a self-assigned one. But the context of each country is different. Putin wants to create a new pan-Russian empire. At the same time, López Obrador intends to leave his name inscribed in gold letters and textbooks as the ruler who rescued threatened national sovereignty with nationalizations. Each one with the respective fantasies that accompany their government actions.
Putin warns the West that it could stop supplying oil and gas while threatening to use nuclear bombs against countries that support Ukraine with weapons, food, and money. The Russian general leading the invasion of Ukraine has announced that his army intends to conquer not only the region known as Donbas, but the whole of southern Ukraine on the Black Sea, thus forcing other Baltic states to align and submit to Moscow’s designs.
The war in Ukraine is entering a dangerous phase because it will be like a great battle of World War II, with large armies, tanks, and planes attacking each other on the plains of the central Eurasian plateau and flatlands. The Ukrainian military is reported to have more tanks than the Russians ready for combat. And neither has air superiority: the Stinger missiles in the Ukrainians’ possession have kept the Russian air force contained and severely limited in its attack actions. This forces many Russian missile attacks against Ukrainian targets to start from Russian territory due to the danger of Ukrainian military resistance. On the other hand, the modern Switchblade drones that the Ukrainians have in abundance offer, in aggregate, enough dangerous weapons to contain and even eventually wear down and slow down the Russian military. A protracted, stalemated war is anticipated.
Threats against the West succeed, more than anything else, in radicalizing internal Ukrainian resistance and strengthening NATO’s resolve to use the war initiated by Putin as a pretext to destroy him economically and militarily. The polarization, the declared hatred between Russians and Ukrainians due to the invasion, and the inability to dialogue to agree on a temporary ceasefire are the ultimate expressions of the failure of politics and diplomacy. That is Putin’s strategic mistake.
At the same time, and in a strange coincidence, the Mexican government is determined to forcefully impose its ideology and political project on the country, even if it is not to the liking of a majority of Mexicans, while promoting polarization and even hatred by declaring “traitors to the homeland” those who disagree with its ideas. In addition to this, the Mexican President refuses to dialogue with opposing sectors of society. A week ago, his initiative to change the country’s electricity industry fundamentals failed because he refused to change “even one comma”.
By refusing to negotiate aspects of his initiative, he became the first Mexican president to put a constitutional amendment initiative before Congress and lose the vote. In other cases, when a President calculated that he did not have enough votes to get his initiative approved, he would either not submit it to a vote or simply withdraw it.
But López Obrador insisted on submitting it, knowing that it would not pass. Now he has started a campaign to declare the legislators who voted against it as traitors to the homeland. So, in addition to failing in his legislative purpose, he is taking advantage of the moment to foster polarization, hatred, and violence in the country. He prepares the ground to declare the opposition illegal since, according to him, the opposition places itself outside of the Constitution by opposing his actions. Since the President considers himself the reincarnation of “La Patria” (The Homeland), whoever opposes him acts illegally. The punishment for offending La Patria is jail.
It has been said that this coming Wednesday, AMLO will submit two additional constitutional amendment initiatives: the reform to the National Electoral Institute and another one on the National Guard. In both cases, it is foreseeable that the opposition bloc that rejected the electricity bill will also unify to reject these two presidential initiatives. And it is foreseeable that the same thing will happen as it happened with the previous reform. Namely, the President will refuse to change the texts presented; the opposition will unify to vote against and, therefore, will reject both proposals. Given this, the President will promote an even more profound and more severe radicalization of the country, under the conviction that this confrontation is his duty and, curiously, it is electorally convenient for him.
The campaign to declare the opposition as “traitors” initiated by López Obrador serves to begin testing the limits of possible legal actions against the opposition, which could claim the traitors as actors against the law deserving prison sentences.
Thus, he will use this new rejection of his future constitutional initiatives to start a war between rich and poor, privileged and non-privileged, good and bad, patriots and traitors, narcos and civil society. Initially, it was a war of ideas. But, given human nature, that war of ideas will turn into a confrontation of words, actions, and eventually conflict between people. In other words, physical violence. That is why he wants total control of weapons with the reform of the National Guard. To have his personal army that will be able to go against the “illegal” opposition: that treacherous rival that violates the Constitution and, therefore, does not deserve consideration and much less dialogue.
For the President, the society that criticizes him (environmentalists, women, human rights, constitutionalists, legislators, opposition parties, among others) is much more his enemy than drug trafficking and organized crime.
On that path, the cancellation of the 2024 presidential elections is a project that turns around in the head of a President who wants all the power. The justification of its cancellation as a patriotic act to ensure the homeland’s salvation is perfectly understandable within López Obrador’s political path.
Finally, there is very little that separates Putin from López Obrador. Geography, yes, but the totalitarian intentionality of the ruler is precisely the same. Such are kindred spirits.
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