Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
The temporary nature of his power is beginning to anguish him. Entering the second, and last, three years of his six-year term, with so few tangible results and so much left to do, has caused him to try to exaggerate his progress while announcing the end of his administration in advance. However, the problems created by conditions external to the country, such as the Covid 19 pandemic and the global economic slowdown, have been compounded by internal mismanagement on several fronts.
The cabinet appointed by the President is virtually non-existent and characterized by genuinely remarkable incompetence. His staff, in general, are ineffective and oscillate between fear, corruption, and ignorance of their duties. They all collect salaries, but no one is efficient in their performance, with few exceptions. The President governs through his morning press conferences known popularly as mañaneras, which are theatrical and loquacious acts that serve as containment dikes to the social overflow. But, how long will this ruse serve him?
The distraction has served him well during the beginning of his government. But the last three years require something else. They demand tangible solutions. He intends to put into operation, as soon as possible and working at a fast pace, the Felipe Angeles airport, the Dos Bocas refinery, and the Mayan Train just as Ebrard did with Metro Line 12, for publicity and glory, regardless of the dangerous consequences on the safety of society due to the haste.
The political crisis created by Line 12 that politically weakens Ebrard and Sheinbaum alike is a product of the desperation to cut the ribbon “of success, of mission accomplished.” The idea is to shield society with showy works and an outpouring of public money given away hand over fist. But are these actions real solutions to the problems that citizens experience daily?
The Secretary of the Interior acknowledged that, due to the Covid 19 pandemic and the economic recession, there were 4 million more poor people in Mexico during this administration. Despite the money given away, and while the new governor of Banxico (central bank) affirms proudly that 65% of Mexican households receive some type of stimulus, the social regression suffered during this term is evident.
The results are negative, and no amount of money given away will solve the social problem of poverty because that is not the way to address that problem. The fact that 65% of households receive some support cannot be read as a positive achievement of this government but as a sign of its profound failure. The right path would be creating productive and well-paid jobs for all.
The best social program is one that creates jobs, not one that gives away money. As the outgoing governor of the Bank of Mexico said, it is essential to attract and stimulate productive investment to create the jobs Mexico needs. The government must establish the legal, social, legislative, and political bases for investment to come into the country. The government is not the great investor but the creator of the infrastructure necessary for investors to create productive activities that, in turn, generate the jobs that are needed in Mexico to reduce poverty.
That is an effective anti-poverty policy, not the gift of money because it does not stimulate consumption or economic growth. Giving money away tends to keep people in a position of prostration, submission, and vulnerability. This government has discouraged the arrival of domestic and foreign private investment needed to create jobs.
The data is absolutely devastating. It seems that its policy is deliberately aimed at scaring away private investment under the mistaken idea that the State can supply that wealth by encouraging the use and burning of fossil energy sources to “stimulate the economy” along with the hand-out of cash throughout the country that supposedly will be another economic stimulus. It does not create jobs or generate welfare.
The President desperately thinks that his political legacy will last forever with the three measures he proposes to Congress. He fantasizes that by controlling the electoral apparatus -INE-, militarizing the country’s police and dominating the energy sector, his presence in national life will be enough to glorify him in the textbooks. But he no longer has the support in Congress or the credibility he had during the previous three years to get his measures approved.
What will it be like to live with such unrealistic fantasies? The President is indeed maneuvering to use the recall vote as a blackmail lever to intimidate the opposition into supporting his legislative measures.
That, too, is the background underlying the conflict between PRI President Moreno and Governor Fayad. When has there ever been such an open and public conflict between PRI members? It seems that the PRI is becoming a real political party for the first time in its long life, with open and public substantive disagreements and debates on the political course to follow. This can be taken as a positive sign for the country’s democratization. A government is democratic when it lives and fosters diverse opinions and national projects.
This is what the President hates and rejects: diversity and debate. He does not want a variety of opinions. He wants only his opinion to prevail throughout the nation. He does not get his hands dirty and allows himself to be cornered into direct discussions with opposition leaders and legislators. Some of his supporters suggest he get closer to the opposition, and his response is to have his Secretary of the Interior meet with “them.” The Interior Department bullies and dodges the opposition. At the same time, the President finances the purchase of support and votes for the Revocation of Mandate to better pressure opponents to align with him in Congress.
While the Government dialogues, the President attacks opposition political leaders, legislators, intellectuals, journalists, higher education institutions, academics, professors, researchers, scientists, students, middle classes, women, environmentalists, human rights defenders, native peoples’ movements, peasants. The President says he seeks concord, but his behavior confirms that this is not. Who understands him?
To agree, to make pacts, to negotiate: these are concepts included neither in the vocabulary nor in the President’s political style. He wants everything for himself: the votes, the elections, the decisions, the phrases, the clapping. It will be difficult for him to recognize the need to negotiate. He wants to impose his terms on any compromise. He recognizes neither the diversity of ideas nor the validity of “another opinion,” which he despises. He only recognizes his own. This is how it will be during the last three years of this government.
But he no longer has the strength, authority, or support he had during the first three years. So López Obrador has one of two paths to follow in the last stretch of his government. He can get either dialogue with the opposition to reach agreements (which would imply concessions from both sides) or attack the opponent in earnest, seeking to weaken it until it is totally destroyed, polarizing society even more, and installing a much more authoritarian regime.
It is not pleasant to be a prophet of doom in turbulent times, like the witches of Macbeth. Still, AMLO’s history inevitably defines him: it is difficult to imagine him negotiating. It is even less difficult to imagine him honoring agreements.
This column was originally published in Spanish on January 2nd, 2022, by El Heraldo de México.
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