It is challenging to define what a recession is. The dictionary explains it as a contraction of the economic cycle and a decline in consumption, while economists require two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP.
Last year we already had this situation of 2 quarters of decline. Still, exceptions were sought to justify the economic reports and assert that there was no recession. Today, the opposite, with no negative figures since the Q4 GDP grew 2.9% in the U.S., there is already talk of the famous R.
There is no doubt that the economy is slowing down, and all the most reliable reports of the U.S. economy, such as housing construction, manufacturing, and services, are below 50, which indicates a setback, however, the reopening of China after the closing of COVID suggests that the expected recession may not occur.
The International Monetary Fund revised its global growth outlook from 2.7% to 2.9% for 2023 and 3.1% for 2024, lower than 2019, pre-pandemic but comfortably positive.
Personally I think Q2 and Q3 of this year will be weak, but not dramatic, as unemployment is still very low, and if it rises from 3.5% to 5-5.5%, it is not that bad. The banks are very solid and overcapitalized, and people still have their stash of what the government gave them during the pandemic when they received extra money and did not consume normal things as they could not travel, go to restaurants and shows, etc.
The political situation in the United States is hot, first with the discovery of classified documents in possession of President Biden; secondly because of a Republican Congress with internal fights, to the extent of needing 15 rounds of voting to be able to elect the leader of the lower house and thirdly the imminent crisis that will arise in the discussion on the increase of the debt that the federal government may have. Once before, in 2011, this discussion reached such a serious level that it shut down the government for a few days and caused the U.S. debt to go from AAA to AA+.
On the one hand, the Democrats begin with the projects they want to implement and consider that generating the necessary resources is unnecessary since the country’s borrowing capacity is unlimited. In contrast, the Republicans begin the other way around, saying that, with the money available, what can be done without borrowing more.
The country has enough maneuvers available to make it until June without problems, even though it has already reached the previous ceiling. Still, in case the congressmen do not reach an agreement, we will see the possibility of not paying Social Security pensions, government employees’ salaries, and other obligations, causing a serious crisis at a global level.
The Congress that began on January 3 seeks to impeach Hunter Biden, son of the President, a corrupt man full of vices. Hopefully, we will not fall into a situation similar to the one experienced during the Clinton era, where the President’s ethics and honesty were questioned. However, on that occasion it was not due to economic issues or corruption.
Mexico is also going through a difficult period with strong economic pressures due to lack of income, as well as an uncomfortable situation in the CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC where the meeting between the three presidents did not reach any solution on the main issues such as energy, corn exports, and the border.
The beginning of the presidential succession rumors, 18 months before the elections are, in my opinion, a perfect way to create controversy and create sometimes illogical alliances, but it is obvious that there is widespread discontent, which is not yet reflected in a drop in President Lopez Obrador’s popularity.
As I have said before, Morena is not a party, but a movement headed by AMLO, and I do not feel that the popular support is with the “party” but with the individual.
The survival of INE and the election of Justice Piña as President of the Supreme Court are clear examples that there is no absolute power and that democracy still “has a wiggle in its paw”.
The famous Culiacanazo with the capture of Ovidio Guzman, a couple of days before the CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC meeting, is, in my opinion, a clear example that there is much more knowledge of the operation of drug trafficking by the government and that the balance of forces depends a lot on the political needs of the moment.
The war in Ukraine is still very intense, and with the agreement of Germany and the USA to send tanks to Kyiv, the conflict may go on for much longer. Fortunately, the winter has not been as severe, and the rest of Europe has not had the expected energy crisis due to the lack of natural gas.
Israel’s drone attack on Iran, destroying a strategic military installation, does not allow us to forget the risk of a conflagration in that part of the world. The US-Israel military exercise, the largest in history, brings to the forefront the need to prevent Iran from having a nuclear bomb at all costs.
Israel is having problems with the new coalition government, to the extent that Netanyahu had to remove the Secretary of Public Security, a representative of the extreme right who was not approved for the post by the Supreme Court on charges of party corruption.
China is a different case. Inflation is at only 1.8%, and its economy is expected to grow 6.7% by 2023. For almost two years, the country was closed in a fight against COVID, basically motivated by its total rejection of Western vaccines and that its Sinovac is not very effective.
The sudden reopening generated almost 60,000 cases of COVID in the first month, but for them the economic decision was more important than the health of their people.
International trade between China and the United States reached $770 billion, one of the main reasons the U.S. trade deficit reached $972 billion.
Another region of the world worth commenting on in passing is NATO, where Turkey is opposing Finland and Sweden joining the organization, apparently protesting what they see as an anti-Muslim stance.
Moving into the economic arena, the U.S. has seen a reduction in inflation from 9.1% in August to 6.1% in January. A sustained unemployment rate of only 3.5%, with 1.7 times more job openings than unemployed people, and a serious contraction in home and auto sales, the two main drivers of the economy.
The total jobs created from March 2022 to January 2023 were in companies with fewer than 250 workers. Big tech companies have announced layoffs of more than 150,000 employees, most of whom earned above national average wages.
Some curious examples that describe the current economic situation are that the average age of cars on the road in the U.S. is 12.2 years, the highest since that statistic has been kept. Another is that consumption of cardboard boxes plummeted 55% from 2021 to 2022.
A representative example of what is happening with real estate in some cities where home prices skyrocketed, the average in San Diego in December 2021 was $743,000; in May 2022, it reached $851,000, and in January 2023, it had returned to $756,000.
An investor who put money into the stock market in 1926 has earned 10.2% annually, 39% from dividends received and reinvested, and 61% from stock appreciation.
In Mexico, public finances continue to be complicated, as there is a strong need for resources to service debt and social commitments. There is not enough money for the government to meet all of its obligations.
The SAT collected 64.7% more than in 2021, $12.1 billion from the so-called major taxpayers, and 375 billion pesos in total, but still not enough. I feel we are running out of cases against “evaders” in perhaps unjustified incidents by the Secretary of the Treasury. It will be difficult to find companies like Bimbo or Walmart that decide to pay what they must pay without fighting it in the tax court.
The increase in CETES interest rates to 10.70% makes the cost of servicing the debt enormously expensive. If we remember that for every dollar that reaches the reserves (which finally reached 200 billion dollars), CETES are issued to pay them, we understand the burden this represents for the State.
The World Bank forecasts that Mexico’s GDP will grow 0.9% in 2023 despite PEMEX reporting a small drop in production to 1.665 million barrels per day and 953,000 barrels of exports, the first time below 1 million barrels per day in more than five years.
I feel that the agreement of no price increase in the basic food basket for all of 2023 is dangerous because of the risk of shortages, since producers will not want to sell at the same price if their inputs become more expensive with inflation. We see that fuel subsidies are another hole in public finances.
The business confidence index stood at 45, the lowest level in the last 22 months, a clear example of the private sector’s concern in the country’s management.
AMLO’s comment about converting PEMEX’s debt to sovereign debt was fascinating. I have suggested this for two years, since the country cannot default on what the oil company owes without affecting its sovereign credit. The change from implicit to explicit guarantee, could reduce the cost of financing by almost 3 billion dollars per year, increasing the sovereign debt to 68% of GDP, still an acceptable figure compared to other countries (121% in the U.S.).
In Israel, the Prime Minister and the Secretary of Finance agreed on the budget for 2023 and 2024 to maintain a restrictive and responsible fiscal policy to stabilize the economy for the next four years.
Projected growth for 2023 is 2.8%, with inflation of 2.7%. In 2022 the country had its first surplus in public finances (0.6%) but projected a deficit of 2% by 2023.
In January, the markets were very good, with stock markets up over 5% and bonds up almost 3% on lower interest rates.
Gold hit a 2-year high ($1,956.00/oz), and bitcoin returned above $23,000.
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