EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report analyzes the ten main risks that may affect the business environment and
democratic governance of the country in 2024. The analysis is based on an original
methodology from Integralia that assesses the potential impact and probability of occurrence
of each risk using quantitative and qualitative indicators. Each risk has a different probability
of occurrence, which may change during the year.
Since presidential, legislative, and local elections will be held in Mexico in 2024, most of the
risks we foresee are related, in one way or another, to the electoral process. The attacks of
President López Obrador against the electoral institutions, the fact that organized crime takes
advantage of the elections to expand their networks of impunity, the atmosphere of political
polarization, the coincidence of elections in Mexico and the United States, and the actions that
López Obrador will undertake to consolidate his political project and ensure his legacy make
2024 a year of high political risk. Below, we present the main ten risks that we foresee for the
year ahead:
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Further Reading: