On February 5, President López Obrador is expected to present a batch of ten
constitutional amendments before Congress that will propose changes regarding
pensions, minimum wage, the electoral and judicial systems, autonomous bodies, the
recall of mandate, and the armed forces, among others.
In our view, these proposals will lack enough support to move forward in Congress,
as MORENA and its allies don’t reach the two-thirds majority needed to pass them,
whereas opposition leaders have already stated they will not endorse any of the bills to
be announced.
Given that the presidential candidate for MORENA Claudia Sheinbaum holds an
overwhelming lead in the polls, the attention is on the Congress election, as it will
be fully renewed in June. Currently, MORENA and its allies have a simple majority in
Congress, which allows them to control the budget but not to change the Constitution.
We see recent government proposals as an electoral strategy since a social agenda
could help MORENA connect with voters while dividing the opposition coalition and
pursuing the next administration’s agenda.
Regarding the proposals, on the labor side, the President will attempt to guarantee
that all workers affiliated with IMSS or ISSSTE receive a pension equivalent to 100%
of their salary at the moment of retirement, while promoting that the minimum wage
grows annually beyond Mexico’s inflation rate. Both proposals have revived concerns
about public finances and inflationary pressures, if approved.
On the institutional side, the judicial and electoral reforms will aim to appoint judges,
Supreme Court justices, National Electoral Institute’s (INE) board members, and
Electoral Court’s (TEPJF) high-ranking judges through a direct popular vote. Concerns
about the judiciary’s independence, the autonomy of electoral institutions, and the
impartiality of electoral processes could heighten.
As we await the proposed amendments and their details, we review in this document
what to expect from them.
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