Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
“Miscalculation” refers to the repercussions of misguided strategic decisions by rulers that disrupt the peace of entire societies.
Current examples of “miscalculations” refer to the possibility of a devastating war if Russia uses nuclear weapons to sustain its invasion of Ukraine, also deploying those weapons to Belarus. Or if China decides to invade Taiwan as a “historical issue,” provoking an armed reaction from opposing alliances. In these cases, the “miscalculation” of the rulers would be to think that others will remain with their arms crossed, without reacting, when probably a war situation will be created with catastrophic consequences for all humanity, not only for the countries directly involved.
In Mexico, we are facing the possibility of a severe “miscalculation” by President López Obrador. And that possibility arises from the same phenomenon that happens to leaders of Russia or China: an overconfidence in their strength that prevents them from seeing and assuming the risks and weaknesses they have to make mistakes in their political or war adventures.
The personal conduct, the public policies applied, and the continued electoral activities of the President may lead Mexico to acute polarization, severe social confrontation, and, as a result, the formation of an illegal and illegitimate government. Or worse: a conflict of severe and violent internal social confrontation with no signs of reconciliation in sight.
The President’s party is currently at the pinnacle of its power, presence, and occupation of all newscasts and media spaces. This moment of power and presence naturally project the impression of unbeatable power. This perception is intended to create a social idea about the “inevitability” of Morena’s victory in the 2024 presidential elections. Not satisfied with the idea of winning the Presidency, López Obrador demands an avalanche of votes to have a qualified majority to impose his militarization projects, destruction of autonomous bodies, and distancing Mexico from the CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC.
That “avalanche of votes” he is asking for is a strange dream of a President who had a qualified majority of the Congress in 2018-2021 and did not know how to take advantage of it. There is an explanation for that presidential wastage: in reality, he did not know what he wanted to do while in government, much less how to achieve it. The waste of his qualified majority is the most irrefutable proof of his mediocrity as President: he came to government and did not know what to do with his power except to enjoy it narcissistically. And now, a year away from leaving power, he believes he has already designed a brilliant government program, wants to militarize the political control of the country, eliminate all oversight of government acts and expenditures, eliminate electoral competition, and alienate Mexico from the international economic controls of the CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC.
He heads a government that, despite claims to the contrary, is in agony and losing strength. An extraordinarily strong President is now reluctant to relinquish power. He wants to impose his candidate for the Presidency. And he wants to impose on that candidate his government program, however rustic, impractical, and counterproductive it may be. Moreover, it demands from the electorate a new qualified majority for a government that will not be his. And he still does not recognize that he had a qualified majority and did not know what to do with it.
Then, the rough road of miscalculations resurfaces. The President finds himself trapped between his inability to recognize that he had the power of decision but did not know what to do nor understand it, and the specter of an end of six years with questioned and incomplete public works, a destroyed health system, blatant acts of corruption and militarization that borders on coup d’état. This is where the problem of miscalculation begins.
Power blinds. But absolute power stultifies. Putin and Xi may think that leading the world into catastrophic wars will allow them to emerge victorious, and their people will be happy and satisfied. That smell of gunpowder seems deceptive from the other side of the world, not to say insane.
From the seat of power he occupies, López Obrador is convinced that he can violate all the laws of the country, use all the instruments and resources of public power, and pressure society into its poverty and desperation to emerge victorious from the presidential elections with a legally elected government with complete legitimacy. The presidential pretension is wrong. That is where he makes his miscalculation.
Despite Morena’s undeniable electoral advances, it is an objective and undeniable fact that the country is deeply divided. The middle classes abandoned Morena en masse. Many sectors doubt the reliability of Morena’s promises, and there is no certainty that Morena’s pre-candidates will be attractive to the general population, whether or not they are recipients of social programs.
If the country were not so divided and the electoral outcome so uncertain, the President would not feel the need to violate, every day, the legal and constitutional framework to try to ensure victory for his party. Despite all the regrets, INE claims to Morena its blatant illegal conduct in managing its internal electoral processes. INE’s Complaints Commission has warned Morena that the official pre-campaign time has not yet begun, much less the campaign time, and has therefore ordered the six Morena aspirants not to make calls to vote, not to promote Morena’s platform or make electoral promises, as established by law. They were also warned that violating these guidelines may result in losing the right to legally register as pre-candidates and participate in the 2024 presidential elections. But all the Morenista pre-candidates insist on ignoring INE’s instructions, the electoral law, and the Constitution.
Magistrate Janine Otálora, a member of the Federal Electoral Tribuna (TEPJF), pointed out that the previous and current acts promoting the pre-candidates (“corcholatas”) represent severe challenges for the electoral judicial system. She pointed out, “We must ensure that the political actors respect the electoral rules that they have established through the legislative representatives, and this particularly calls for not carrying out pre-campaign and campaign acts in advance. Respect for the legal electoral times is fundamental in our democratic system.” The Magistrate added: “We cannot allow that in parallel to a constitutional and legal system, an illegal or paralegal system, invented by political actors that, finally, translates into a fraud to the law, be permitted to advance.”
The electoral result resulting from a “fraud to the law” will be illegal and, therefore, illegitimate. President López Obrador’s acts and statements constitute fraud to the electoral law, leading the 2024 election dangerously to an illegitimate result. The President’s effort is systematic, daily, constant, and visible. Whoever affirms otherwise suffers from the same blindness.
This is the most severe miscalculation that the President is making today. He believes that he has the political strength to impose on Mexican society an electoral result arising from “a fraud to the electoral law” and, therefore, illegitimate. He also believes he can impose that result by force of arms, if necessary.
AMLO, like Putin and Xi, is wrong. The miscalculation of authoritarian leaders, blinded by the temporary power they wield, is to assume that power is all theirs. It is not. Power belongs to society, and it is temporarily borrowed. But insisting on this miscalculation will make Mexican society pay a high price in the short and medium term in violence and nonconformity due to the blindness of the authoritarian leader.
[email protected]
@rpascoep
Further Reading: