SEPGRA welcomes CSIS with this report on the current situation and potential risks of one of the countries where we place a priority focus, and its implications for another of the three countries that mostly captures our attention.
As our purpose is to provide our readers with relevant information and quality analysis, based on the observation of events combined with data from reliable sources, we proudly present this thorough analysis of the relevance for both the United States and for México of a careful review of the relationship beyond commerce, such as cooperation in matters of security, health, and the economy, particularly in view of the geopolitical challenge to the United States posed by China’s involvement in several countries in the world, and particularly in Latin America.
The report reviews the problems faced by México before and during the pandemic with emphasis on the economy and its effects on employment, industrial activity, particularly in the energy sector where restrictions on private investment have added uncertainty in the business environment for both local and foreign investors.
On top of it, there was already a mounting fiscal crisis that became worse when the pandemic forced the government to increase spending in credits for vulnerable population and consumption, and for refurbishing a collapsing health infrastructure incapable to satisfy the needs of fast-growing demand for services. To make things worse, the price of oil collapsed, and a legendary internal inefficiency caused production to fall becoming a major revenue drain.
Next the attention goes to Mexico’s security crisis, a major problem not under control and advancing, growing geographically and in the number of illegal activities, with one cartel becoming a major criminal actor in over half of Mexican territory, showing off it capabilities in videos that circulated extensively in social media, acting with relative impunity. The report analyses the security sector response.
The next section is related to political chaos and drift, describing the natural response to the previously reported, concluding that the governing party’s loss of its supermajority in the Chamber of Deputies is no longer unthinkable.
The deteriorating situation in Mexico threatens to impact the United States in multiple ways, says the first paragraph of the section that examines the implications for the United States and the region. Then the focus shifts to an extensive analysis of China’s advance, and the report concludes with a set of policy recommendations for the United States with the reasoning that it is in the United States’ strategic interest to support Mexico in the present time of crisis with respect and
generosity.
We encourage our readers to read the report in its original version following this link, or to download it from the website in the same link:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/neighbor-risk-mexicos-deepening-crisis