Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
The “campaigns” of the corcholatas (a derogatory term applied from the presidential subconscious to his potential successors) coincide in time and form: they do not postulate anything other than what AMLO says in his mañaneras. They assume that they are doomed to win. That is the prevailing assumption within the official party and the National Palace.
They have erased from their analysis of the political reality of the country the possibility that they could lose power in 2024, how seductive and blinding the exercise of power, that they think that their permanence in government has no end!
They forget that it was only in the federal elections of 2015 that their irruption in the capital and national politics occurred. The 2018 elections were his highest point, electorally speaking, and the mid-term elections of 2021 began to mark his decline. The recall vote in April 2022 was a numerical fiasco for Morena. This, despite its electoral victories in governorships. A contradictory phenomenon can be perceived there, oscillating between disappointment in the face of bad results and the hope that something might improve.
Governance and its results will play a central role in defining the continuity, or not, of the Morenista team in power. They will probably weigh more than the candidacy because that is what AMLO seeks. He wants the debate to be about himself and not about his successor. The decision for the corcholatas not to debate responds to this reality: they do not want to open the barrage of criticism they will receive for the poor results of AMLO’s presidency.
The controversy over the textbooks has opened a new front that will alienate many social sectors of “soft” voters who would have voted for Morena inertially but will now vote against Morena or abstain from voting. The textbooks offend vast sectors of Mexican families in public schools, not in private schools. Those who developed these books think that those who attend public schools in Mexico admire Marx, Lenin, Che Guevara, and Fidel Castro as much as they do. With the textbook controversy, Morena will discover a Mexico very different from what they imagined.
This will be so no matter how many intelligence agents from Cuba and Venezuela fill the halls of government. They are spies and experts in creating violent situations; they are not intellectuals or sociologists. Their ideological distortion does not allow them to understand Mexico.
The same happens with the relatives of that population of almost one million dead due to the cynical handling of the Covid pandemic by the Ministry of Health and the 4T. And what can we say about the grieving and expressive relatives of the children who died of cancer due to the lack of medicines, a shortage attributable exclusively to the government of López Obrador.
The list of social sectors negatively affected by the government’s destructive policies grows daily. And what Morena is left with are the sectors that receive social support in the form of cash in hand, with the express signal that comes personally from Mr. Andrés Manuel López Obrador. They may be loyal to AMLO, but will they be faithful to a cold and distant character like Sheinbaum or the sinister and manipulative faces of Ebrard or Adán? No matter how much AMLO shouts in favor of the corcholatas, the coin of his electoral loyalty will always be in the air.
If the corcholatas think they are doomed to win, their blindness will lead them to the precipice. Because power is never forever.
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