Reducing cartel recruitment is the only way to lower violence in Mexico*.

Rafael Prieto Curiel, Gian Maria Campedelli and Alejandro Hope.

Homicides in Latin America are driven by violent cartels. The impact of Mexican cartels is especially far-reaching because they prey upon undocumented migrants along the US-Mexico border, violate human rights, and weaken political and economic institutions. However, cartels remain mysterious despite being major employers. Because understanding how Mexican cartels function is essential to attenuating their power, Prieto-Curiel et al. conducted a sophisticated analysis that estimated their population size and examined factors driving cartel growth and shrinkage (see the Policy Forum by Caulkins et al.). Factors included “recruitment” (new cartel members join), “incapacitation” (police incarcerate or arrest members), “conflict” (cartels fight other cartels), and “saturation” (members leave). Findings suggest that reducing “recruitment” instead of increasing “incapacitation” is a much more effective policy to decrease violence. —Ekeoma Uzogara

Abstract

Mexican cartels lose many members as a result of conflict with other cartels and incarcerations. Yet, despite their losses, cartels managed to increase violence for years. We address this puzzle by leveraging data on homicides, missing persons, and incarcerations in Mexico for the past decade, along with information on cartel interactions. We model recruitment, state incapacitation, conflict, and saturation as sources of cartel size variation. Results show that by 2022, cartels counted 160,000 to 185,000 units, becoming one of the country’s top employers. Recruiting between 350 and 370 people per week is essential to avoid their collapse because of aggregate losses. Furthermore, we show that increasing incapacitation would increase both homicides and cartel members. Conversely, reducing recruitment could substantially curtail violence and lower cartel size.

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*Originally published by SCIENCE on September 21, 2023, Vol 381, Issue 6664, pp. 1312-1316

DOI: 10.1126/science.adh28

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