Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
Tomorrow, Sunday, we will vote for the renewal of the governorships of Coahuila and the State of Mexico (Edomex). Both states are important, but the State of Mexico is the jewel in the crown in electoral terms. Its importance is reflected, among other things, by the number of potential voters (almost 13 million). It is the largest electoral roll in the country. According to the National Intelligence Center, the election is technically tied. Therefore, its impact on next year’s federal elections will be crucial to define the national electoral outcome.
The State of Mexico and Mexico City are the two largest electoral rolls in the country. Next come Veracruz, Jalisco, Nuevo Leon, Puebla and Michoacan. In these states, the outcome of the 2024 presidential election will be decided and defined.
The election in Edomex has all the features of what Mexico will face in 2024. In essence, the debate is between a democratic coalition (PAN, PRI, PRD), with all the ups and downs that democracy imposes on different parties, versus a one-voice coalition with a vertical and authoritarian structure (Morena Verde, PT). Democracy versus authoritarianism. That is the dilemma.
On the ground and in the heat of the campaign debates and the confrontations between the candidates, the discussion between democracy and authoritarianism is not so clear when both candidates make offers, promises, and plans. But the debate between two models in a frank clash within Mexican society is present, even if it is not so evident or obvious.
If Alejandra del Moral is elected governor of the State of Mexico, she will be the product of an unusual coalition of parties finally more interested in advancing the agenda of democracy and freedom. In the case of the PAN, PRI, PRD, Nueva Alianza, and civil society coalition, there is a signed commitment to form the first coalition government in the history of Mexico. And the promise of the political parties, together with civil society organizations that accompany her, is the formation of a plural and coalition cabinet because her government will be based on a program of commitments and objectives previously disseminated and accepted by all the members of the effort.
Something very different happens in the other corner of the ring. The Morenista bloc is the conjunction of parties that exist to blackmail and threaten each other mutually. This is the only way to understand the tragicomedy of Coahuila, with the forced but not accepted resignations of the PT and the Green Party to have candidacies different from the official candidate of Morena, which served as blackmail to Morena so that it would agree to approve “the law of the eternal life of the parties”. A law that is the antithesis of a democratic exercise and respect for the citizen vote. It is evident that there is neither the idea of creating a coalition government nor a true platform of commitment between them. What exists between them is a relationship to see which of the three can outdo the others. It is a relationship between mafiosi, where the spirit of stabbing at any moment and at the slightest pretext reigns. That is the “government program” they offer.
What Morena offers in Edomex is a poorly done and poorly presented mimicry of what López Obrador offers daily in the morning press conference (mañanera). Mainly his narrative is to blame others for all the ills afflicting the State of Mexico and the country. This is how the President presents things. In one of the most recent mañaneras, he blamed the past for the fact that there have been more violent deaths during his administration than in the two previous six-year terms. For him, there is “Calderon’s war,” but he does not recognize his war as much more violent, cruel, and out of control. The method of blaming others for his own mistakes is the same method that Morena has transferred to its campaign in the State of Mexico. It blames the PRI for all the current ills because of its past management.
This method of accusing the ruling parties of the past of being responsible for all the current ills is a test to prove its effectiveness in the election of 2024.
The Morena candidate for the governorship of the State of Mexico promised to solve all education problems in the state. She obliviously ignored the fact that she was the Federal Secretary of Education for years and did not solve any of those problems. She employs the same method as AMLO: she blames the previous ones as many times as necessary to at least confuse the listeners if she fails to convince them. She accuses others of being corrupt, while she is the only one with proven corruption crimes against her. In this, Morena is also rehearsing for 2024.
The interest is also to test the electoral effectiveness of electoral support programs. While the State of Mexico government distributes support to 450 thousand households, the Morenista federal government distributes it to a little less than 3 million households in the State of Mexico. This Sunday’s election is a clash of trains between two models of social assistance: punctual support to poorer families with the pink card or Morena’s massive shotgun attack regardless of their socio-economic condition. Morena adds the threat: “You will lose your support if you don’t vote for me”.
The narrative disseminated by Alejandra del Moral during her campaign also has messages for the 2024 elections and the opposition bloc. First, it promotes the idea that the PAN-PRI-PRD-NA bloc and citizen organizations represent a new national governing bloc that recognizes past mistakes and is committed to creating a new future for all. Hence the notion of the coalition government and its concrete consequence: the plural cabinet with a government program agreed upon by all parties and citizens.
Secondly, she represents a new generation of women willing to break with the past of oppression to build a better future for their families, communities, municipalities, and the State of Mexico. Thirdly, she rejects the politics of polarization and confrontation promoted by Morena. She offers tolerance, dialogue, and agreement instead of conflict between ideologies and groups. She offers reconciliation to build a better Mexico for all. Finally, she confirms her rejection of corruption and favoritism and offers transparency and accountability.
In the State of Mexico, two Mexicos are facing each other. The one of polarization and the promotion of hatred among citizens is one. The other poses reconciliation, tolerance, and accountability.
These two Mexicos are looking at each other face to face. The stakes could not be higher. And the risk for Mexico is immense.
The outcome of the State of Mexico will have lessons for strategists and their strategies on both sides of this divided Mexico. Can polarization outweigh reconciliation? Can exclusion be more powerful than tolerance? These questions underlie the background of an election that is in a technical tie. The answers to these questions will significantly impact the outcome of the 2024 elections. It will even define, to some extent, who will be Mexico’s next President.
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