Antonio Navalón
Politicians can be considered extraterritorial beings and immune to the impact that time has on others. They are not affected by the laws of gravity or those of nature. A politician in full bloom is someone who is – like some antibiotics of the past – in suspension and in whom not even a solid and sustained dialectical argument can shake them or threaten their position of power.
This is a crucial year for the political class. To begin with, one of the problems that has not yet acquired the full force it hopes to achieve but is beginning to be projected is the impact, education, and the way the new generations behave. Let’s suppose I focus on talking about Mexico; now it turns out that everything will depend on what happens in a debate in which we have long since abandoned common sense. If you look at the polls and the overwhelming difference between the two candidates, you might wonder who the real enemy of the 4T will be. In addition to what the polls and projections show, Dr. Sheinbaum’s headquarters have insisted – over and over again – on repeating the message that the difference between her and Gálvez is so significant that it seems that what they are really trying to say is that, with such an advantage, it is practically unnecessary to hold the elections.
Maintaining an advantage of between 20 and 25 points over her closest rival means that the electoral tension has disappeared and that the real problem is to start doing the math. The fact is that, as things stand beyond the interesting and interested opinion, the situation requires a more thorough analysis that considers other factors, such as the real electoral intention or the methodology and the way polls are conducted. I am not saying that the big polling houses sell their results, but it is always more challenging to say no or not to be affectionate with the one who pays for it than with the opponent. In any case, what matters is the political result.
The conquest for power is almost divine. Basically, holding power and being the one who rules over others means having the possibility of becoming a nearly divine representation. Since the rise of the Caesars, there has been a constant concern about humanizing the gods and deifying men. All literature, all democratic construction, and all the right and wrong in the exercise of power are based on the fact that, although one is in charge, we should all be equal. Democracy is an exercise and a system intended to establish equal conditions and prevent those who have little or a lot of power – obtained by the very election of those they will govern – from being tempted to misuse or abuse the opportunity they have been given.
In democracies, the exercise of governing is an opportunity granted by the people to a person or group of persons to demonstrate their leadership capacity and lead the country along the path of growth and development. When power is conquered by votes and not by bullets, it is vital to understand the human condition. In this sense, I respectfully suggest that the doctor’s campaign team allow the campaign to be a little more human. In what sense? In the sense that whoever wants to win the elections needs to mobilize the physical act of going to vote. But, if everything is already so won and the rice is so cooked that it gives the impression that we are in the dessert, how will they manage to mobilize and convince more than thirty million Mexicans to go and vote for them? It is very strange, and what is more, up to now, nobody has thought why it is necessary to melt, disappear, anticipate, and structurally change the organization of the State and the world of law if it is so clear that we are not about to announce, but just about to inaugurate the second floor of the Fourth Transformation.
Quantity changes quality, and naturally, I find it contradictory to be so sure and to make, like Thor’s hammer, the numerical superiority of the polls with what is the becoming and coexistence of every day. Besides, I have not yet fallen into the temptation – although I promise I will do it after tonight’s debate – to add up and draw the estimated number of possible voters because, in reality, have you ever thought about where they get the numbers from to reach the idyllic figure of more than thirty million votes? No doubt, maintaining Morena’s leadership in Mexico City is becoming increasingly uncertain and is already beginning to look like a possible battle lost. There is also no doubt that getting Rocío Nahle to win the governorship of Veracruz would be a miraculous feat. I fear that the crisis in Veracruz, one of the most important electoral rolls in the country, is a consequence -among other things- of the bad governance by Governor Cuitláhuac García. Apparently, Alfaro and what is left or managed by the new Movimiento Ciudadano, Jalisco, will be maintained by the party led by Dante Delgado.
Ergo, the big question for the upcoming elections is: Who will vote, and where will the millions of votes come from? It was a good exercise to concentrate on today’s debate, but the real concern and essential issue is the real panorama that the governing party has—for better or worse—and, more importantly, to identify the real enemy to beat. And the fact is that, based on polling data, its enemy is not the opposition.
Several things are new, as it was new to inaugurate the six-year term with thirty million votes, as it happened to Andrés Manuel López Obrador. But, in politics, the most important thing is not to choose the wrong enemy; often, the enemy is oneself. Often, the enemy is what one has done, and it is absurd to expect the recognition of the people without a couple of decades or years to evaluate what has been done objectively. Who said that politics or human beings are characterized by being grateful or responsible? Therefore, the outcome of the debate, at least, has to produce electoral tension. But electoral tension – we must be wrong – affects both parties equally. The debate’s effect should be like a tornado to displace the false moon and raise the kind of country that, beyond simplifications, we could still be in time to rebuild.
We must be aware that people, by definition, have short comprehension and deep feelings. That is why it is not enough to promise them more of the same. The first thing to check is whether what they have already had is enough to win or not, and, secondly, at the end of the day—as it happens in every self-respecting honest house—to define who will be in charge.
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