Antonio Navalón
The America that rules, the one that financially dominates the planet, has a very complicated agenda. The other America, that of the South, has lived amidst the convulsions of populism.
From the beginning, there have always been two Americas. From the time of James Monroe, America, led by the United States, ruled, commanded, in a sense, also enslaved and intervened whenever its interests were at stake in the other Americas. Throughout the 20th century, the United States was the dominant hub of non-English speaking America. From Tierra del Fuego to the Rio Grande, the flag that truly flew above the rest was that of the stars and stripes.
The America that rules, that of the North, that of the Marines, that of the Trumps, that of nuclear weapons, the one that wants to be preserved without the help of immigration, but, above all, the America that financially dominates the planet, has a very complicated schedule. Today debts are still counted in dollars, and the consequences of the economic order that existed in the past continue to be those that govern this era.
By now, when Joe Biden’s administration is not even half a year into the game, it is easy to see that within the Democratic Party, there is a deep debate about the fiscal and economic model to follow. Depending on how the Democrats act from here and if their actions are not accompanied by another series of political measures that, for example, limit the responsibilities of Trumpism, it will not take a rocket scientist to predict that the Democratic dream may last less than what was foreseen. Despite their squalid majority in Congress and the Senate, if the Democrats do not wake up and if they do not begin to act with force and political efficiency, their power could begin to be harmed in the midterm elections of 2022. But thinking about the worst-case scenario, if they don’t make up the way, in 2024, we can see Mr. Trump sitting back – this time with historical reason, and we’ll see who brings him down – inside the command bridge of the so-called civilized world.
The Big Stick policy implemented by the United States in Latin America has disappeared. Since September 11, 2001, Americans have increasingly lost interest in Latin America. It is impossible to be fighting in the mountains of Afghanistan while trying to control the Sierra Maestra, the Sierra Madre, or just take a look at what is happening in Brazil.
The other America, that of the South, has lived between the convulsions of populism, the dreams of Chavismo, the appearances of Kirchnerism, and the need to have its own political ideologies. Ideologies that since colonial times have been marked by the failure of social distribution. There are such resounding victories that not even the numerical modification of the parliamentary sphere from which they are produced has the strength to change them. In this sense, we face the largest, most spontaneous, and lacking political direction of the changes in Latin America in recent years. And I’m afraid it’s not a change for the better. Remembering Eduardo Galeano, the veins of Latin America are indeed open, and, what is worse, blood continues to flow. All these American countries promise to recover that America that one day Néstor Kirchner, Hugo Chávez, and Lula Da Silva represented. An America characterized by a populist model accompanied by the search for social equality and an economic model – except in the Brazilian case – would sustain that situation.
In Colombia, it is evident that being as it is, a country with such a defined, serious and dangerous personality, the game that has been unleashed is the sum of the Covid-19 crisis with an attempt at the rationality of the so-called neoliberal model. This has produced an explosion that, at this point, no one can say how it will end. It gives the impression that the arrival of Gustavo Petro to the Casa de Nariño would be the least bad thing that could happen to them. Meanwhile, Colombia has become an ungoverned country today, and I don’t know if it is even ungovernable.
Chile is the big surprise. The Chile that occupied, bloodied, and killed Augusto Pinochet was a very poor Chile, with great social imbalances, in need of respecting the popular vote, but, above all, with great popular hunger. On that occasion, the Chilean story ended in the middle, not of a great bloodbath, but of a great demonstration of violation of legalities and with the ugliest face of the slope of the military dictatorships in the Southern Cone. From there, processes have been experienced that could explain how – despite the undeniable economic success that Chile once had – the failure of the social model, inequality, economic racism, and separation have been the factors that make it necessary to rewrite its Constitution. In addition to the above factors, it has also been the Covid-19 crisis and the errors of the Sebastián Piñera government that have caused it to reach a point where it is indispensable to establish the points to promote a more just and equitable society. Of course, without losing footing on what the cycles of economic growth and a social adjustment that allow us to move forward mean.
The result of the Chilean election and referendum obscures the sad and mediocre unfolding of Peronism’s return to Argentina under President Alberto Fernández. But the truth is that Kirchner is not still alive and that, just as the Alba countries overcome a political circumstance, at this time Fernández’s role is a role that aims to divert attention from the money they owe and the problems that have. For the rest, it is evident that from Juan Domingo Perón to Néstor Kirchner, in this coming and going from populism towards the impossible dream, Argentina occupies an enormous place.
Brazil already knows and has already experienced the failure of a far-right populist model such as Jair Bolsonaro. Brazilians know what it means and what someone who would like to be a military dictator can offer them, as is the case with Bolsonaro. In Brazil, neither Bolsonaro nor Lula Da Silva has developed their own growth model for their country. In this regard, you don’t have to be a genius to suppose that – as things are – probably the time has come, I don’t know if for a third term for Lula, but certainly for a change.
On June 6, Peru will elect a new president. Regardless of whether Keiko Fujimori ends up winning by a small minority or not, what seems evident is that in the implosion of the Peruvian political system – as is the proof of the irruption of Pedro Castillo – Juan Velasco Alvarado’s unredeemed dream has once again won. In Peru, it is evident that the rejection of the socioeconomic models that have governed societies has once again triumphed.
In Mexico, wherever you see it, also on June 6, the lopezobradorismo and the 4T bet all to one card. When the game is so extreme, it is not enough to have a small minority that gives you the numbers to get the laws out. When the game is so decisive, you need the ability and power not only to promote the laws you want but to discourage societies from fighting them by land, by sea, or by air.
On paper, and if it were not as it is, the President of Mexico would have a historic opportunity. López Obrador should be the great leader of that America that emerges and has a great word in common with him. And it is that when one listens to the new Chilean constituents, it realizes that the great common enemy is neoliberalism. The responsibility for our unhappiness, the failure of our social model, and the failure to build equitable societies with the capacity for growth is neoliberalism. And in this sense, the brand and copyright are held by the protagonist of the “mañaneras” or early “press conferences” and the way he governs.
For López Obrador, there is no global or regional temptation. Unlike other Mexican presidents, he will not try to be the leader who channels a moment of the American continent. A continent that, if it resembles something, is itself. In addition, there is a new factor, and it is that before, the struggle was between communism and capitalism, colored by the bloody hand of the guerrillas and the military uprisings in Latin America. Today, America’s external game is forged at the heel and under the domination of raw materials. And here comes a player who – despite counting on it – is not characterized by showing his political game. From this moment on, a player has acquired a determining weight in the future of the Americas. A player who has taken advantage of the fact that the United States is not in a position to deal with, redefine, or understand the extent of change the Americas are undergoing. That player is called China, and it will be imperative to know how much, how, and where will be used by the Chinese to continue weakening the backyard of the country that was once the world’s leading power.
We will never know what the world would be like if the pandemic had not existed. We know that the pandemic has been the great fire test and of resistance of States and governments. Also, just as it is not good for a man to be alone, having too much time to reflect, dream, and really see what one’s life is like generally has dire consequences. That is what I fear is beginning to happen with the individual and collective balance sheets redefined in the American peoples, especially after the Covid-19 crisis.
We already have a new enemy that is neither capitalism nor communism nor imperialism. The enemy of these times is neoliberalism. Now what we are missing is a new hero, a real one. A hero who, despite the failure of governments, is not consumed by words or good intentions. Everything starts over. And that’s what the emerging America is focusing on right now.
