An enraged mob attacks a military garrison; the soldiers surrender and hand over their weapons and the military installation to the aggressors. In another part of the country, an army platoon is attacked by residents who do not accept their presence in that area; the soldiers are beaten, insulted, humiliated, and disarmed by the enraged residents who capture them; they are held hostage until the authority satisfies their demands, one of which is that they do not return to that area either as an army or as a National Guard.
A road is blocked with rocks by 20 people camped on the sides. The blockade is 25 days old and is added to another of the same duration of the railway line that connects the main port of the Pacific with the rest of the country and the northern border. The National Guard, the army, and the state police are nowhere to be found.
Three hundred miles away, a railroad has been stopped and looted by residents engaged in huachicol (theft of fuel from the pipelines they drill). At the same time, a soldier on board, with his rifle in his arms, watches them entertained, without saying anything, perhaps grateful that at least he is not attacked.
In Tierra Caliente (hot land) region, one cartel uses heavy machinery to destroy a segment of both sides of the highways that connect Aguililla to other cities, blocking incoming and outgoing transit of persons and goods, causing shortages of everything. Aguililla, is where two drug cartels dispute that territory where chemical precursors pass to make fentanyl and synthetic drugs such as ecstasy, LSD, and methamphetamines: the United Cartels, which emerged from self-defense groups, and the fearsome Jalisco New Generation Cartel(CJNG).[1]
Aranza Ramos, 29, was looking for her husband, who disappeared seven months ago in Guaymas, in the northwestern state of Sonora. The murderers did not like that, so they killed her. The same day, a convoy of 45 trucks (the State government acknowledges 20), each carrying ten heavily armed thugs, breaks into the Michoacán State lake-city of Pátzcuaro around noon. The locals pretend to ignore their presence, fearful that any of the hoodlums may think they are not welcome, and begin shooting left and right.
The CJNG and Sinaloa Cartels clash throughout the state of Zacatecas, only in the municipalities of Jerez and Valparaíso in the last 10 days have accumulated more than 50 homicides. The attack of these cartels exceeded the authorities and the police and military forces deployed in the area; the inhabitants had to abandon their homes and property to take shelter in the municipal capitals because “it is taken by gunmen”[2]
The previous scenes are not part of a Netflix series; they are regular reports on a television newscast that reviews the events without showing surprise. They are so frequent that they are hardly news anymore.[3]
“Criminal organizations have cracked down on federal authorities in an obscene, insulting, and deeply humiliating way for the results. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador proposed a negotiation table in Aguililla to end the blockade and the confrontations. The response was a direct attack on Army facilities by the CJNG, and an affront in the Buenavista Tomatlán prison, where members of the United Cartels are trying to rescue Miguel Ángel Treviño, the Z-40, the legendary head of Los Zetas.” [4]
Coincidentally, one of the most celebrated films in the emblematic Cannes Film Festival, “Noche de Fuego,” is a docufilm about how organized crime operates in the State of Guerrero, kidnaps and sells young females to human traffickers. Also, Netflix just released a new series called “Somos” Based on Ginger Thompson’s 2017 oral history, “How the U.S. Triggered a Massacre in Mexico,” tells the story of a 2011 mass killing in Allende, in the Mexican state of Coahuila about 40 miles from the Texas border town of Eagle Pass, where nothing has changed.
“The short version is that having obtained inside intelligence on the leaders of the deadly Zetas cartel, the Drug Enforcement Administration shared information with Mexican counterparts, who passed it on to the leaders themselves, brothers Miguel and Omar Treviño. As the traffickers who provided the intel fled across the border with $5 million of Zetas money, gangs arrived in Allende and kidnapped and killed anyone suspected of betrayal, along with family members and people who happened to be in the way. It was not a surgical strike but a battering ram.[5]
Also, in Cannes, a documentary “La Civil” about a Mexican activist mother looking for her kidnaped daughter receives a special award for bravery. Sad coincidences of fiction and reality. The level of the savagery of criminal groups is unheard of. These outlaws not only have no remorse for their dehumanization, but incredibly, they like to show off their atrocities. ( The reader who has the right stomach and enough morbidity, can confirm it by watching the videos they proudly present on their blog: ( https://elblogdelnarco.com/2014/08/11/lista-de-videos-de-ejecuciones-interrogatorios-y-balaceras/ )
Also noticeable is the article published last weekend by the prestigious French newspaper Le Monde under the title “Mexico, an expanding mafiocracy.” The article argues that the June elections led to an avalanche of crimes. “The drug cartels have spread blood not only to infiltrate the State a little more but to govern with it,” it summarizes.[6]
The government of Mexico operates hand in hand with the two branches of organized crime: the one that shows off physical violence (the violent), and; the one that uses corporate disguise, pretends to be socially responsible, and makes use of institutional violence (the pretenders).
The violent enjoy an unrequested truce that allows them to operate freely and without consequences, stimulating their criminal activity, geographical expansion, and its areas of business. ( For a full picture of these groups, see attachment at the end: Mapa Criminal de México 2019-2020 by Lantia Intelligence)
The narcos used to control “territories”; now they rule whole counties and states, which is well known to AMLO and his military establishment, which seem to enjoy co-existing with them. Otherwise, it is inexplicable that the president said after the election that “the narcos had behaved well” when their criminal groups operated an electoral fraud with the tacit consent of the government.”[7]
“But it is true that, if one looks carefully at the maps, it will be evident that it is not that the narco has bought a political party but that it does not need it. It gives the impression that what the narco has bought is the entire country.” [8]
The pretenders receive large contracts, positions in the cabinet, bills that favor them, concealment and protection against prosecution, condonations, and all kinds of concessions and benefits. They even act as advisers to the president in economic matters.
“…more than 80% of the purchases and contracts of his government are assigned directly by the top bureaucrats, dodging procedures in place to conduct competitive bidding. A growing number of cases have been documented where suppliers and contractors are new in the business and have non-existent official addresses.”[9]
In return, the violent support the operatives of the ruling party in their campaigning efforts by chasing, intimidating, and executing opposition candidates and their supporters. They operate during the days leading up to, during, and after the elections to ensure that the votes cast and counted in the polling places favor candidates of the ruling party, either by “lifting” ( kidnapping) polling officers and representatives of opposing parties the day of the election or by disappearing tally sheets and ballot boxes or altering their content.
“However, the elections were marred by being the most violent in history in terms of the number of politicians assassinated and the massive coercion and kidnappings of operatives and candidates of opposition parties, particularly where narco-criminal gangs dominate.
“Thus, Morena won all but one of the states up for grabs abutting the Pacific Ocean, with the ostensible support of organized crime, which has enormous power in that region, in what the sitting governor of the state of Michoacán called a “blatant narco election.” ”[10]
The pretenders make public statements in support of the actions undertaken by the president, creating trends and controversies to discredit opposition voices; they support the operation of welfare programs, legitimizing them and publicizing their scope and benefits as part of the official propaganda machinery, and use their structures for the dispersal of funds and with in-kind support to electoral operators during the campaigns. They conceal illicit activities of those in power and their relatives in exchange for the same the other way around, leaving the door open for extortion.
Yet, in this installment, the analysis will focus only on the violent.
The president and his team aim their attacks on those who hold a microphone, a camera, or a pen; never mind those who carry an AK47, since “most likely they are good people seeking justice, which is above the law.”
“Armed conflicts between organized crime groups and the reaction of residents have generated, in recent weeks, insecurity crisis in Zacatecas, Chiapas, Michoacán, Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Tamaulipas, despite the presence of the National Guard, Army, and local Police. In Zacatecas, where at least 51 people have been killed in the last 10 days, the dispute between the Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel (CJNG) and the Sinaloa Cartel worsened after the elections.
“The municipalities of Villanueva, Fresnillo, Zacatecas, Guadalupe, Jerez, and Valparaíso have been the scenes of shootings, massacres, hanging bodies, murders of doctors, families, and police. In Michoacán, the alleged support of the police for “Los Viagras” triggered a streak of violence in that state, carried out by its rivals from the CJNG, revealed military sources. In addition, residents of Aguililla, who have suffered drug blockades since last year, reproach the inaction of the Army against criminals.”
“”The soldiers must patrol, or there is no dialogue,” the Aguililla parish priest told REFORMA. In Chiapas, there are thousands of people displaced by violence. There is an increase in armed groups dedicated to extortion, kidnapping, trafficking, and the passage of drugs. In Tamaulipas, the shootings due to the fight for the territory have turned cities like Reynosa into fields of war. The Northeast Cartel (CDN) is in dispute with the Gulf Cartel (CDG) for control of customs, drug trafficking, and migrant smuggling.”[11]
The Mexican drug cartels have been acting as terrorist groups in recent years. Are the Mexican drug cartels considered truly terrorist groups?
The alarm bells and the red flashing lights have not been distracting Jake Sullivan and his staff. That is because the terrorist actions taking place next door aim at Mexicans. The violent groups are conscientious not to mess with any American, for they know the consequences.
But maybe this should: the drug overdose deaths rose nearly 30% in 2020, to a record of 93,331 according to preliminary data of the CDC. How many of these deaths were from drugs that somehow managed to cross the southern border? This number represents one-third of the total number of homicides in Mexico in the same period.
Those 93,331 overdose deaths were mostly of young Americans, the largest single-year increase in the record; the most drug overdose deaths in a year; the most overdose deaths from stimulants like methamphetamine; the most deaths from opioid overdoses; the most deaths from the deadly class of synthetic opioids known as fentanyl, mostly coming from China, which are easier to manufacture and ship than traditional heroin, replacing or mixing it and other drugs with fentanyl in many cities, and finding their way into other drugs like meth, some of it crossing the southern border and making its way to cities and suburbs through the distribution networks of the Mexican cartels, those who act freely in their country[12].
The massive involvement of the violent in the past election was notorious, at least that is the main argument of those challenging the electoral results for three governorships and hundreds of federal and state congressional positions, mayors, and city officials’ posts.
Recent Context:
On June 4th, Mexican citizens voted in the popularly called “the biggest election” in modern times for more than 21 thousand popularly elected posts across the country. Unfortunately, 102[13] to 179[14] candidates or postulants for a public position were murdered within the electoral process (September 7, 2020, to June 6, 2021). In addition, a total of 1,066 crimes were reported during this period, including kidnapping and threats against candidates, postulants, family members of politicians, and government workers.
More violent acts during election day
One person threw a human head into a polling place in Tijuana; in Mexicali, Baja California, men fired at Morena’s offices; in Metepec, State of Mexico, armed men shot and stole ballots; In Naucalpan, also in the State of Mexico, armed men threw a fragmentation grenade at a square; In San Luis Potosí, an armed attack on a square; In Los Mochis, Sinaloa, an armed group stole ballot boxes. These are examples of events that happened only on Election Day.
Other data on the participation of Mexican organized crime groups in terror activities
Another characteristic, perhaps less visible to the naked eye like that observed in violent acts such as homicides, is the pressure exerted by organized crime groups with terrorist activities on a population segment. Through threats, armed presence in the community or even through what John Kenneth Galbraith called condigious power, “winning submission by the ability to impose an alternative to the preferences of the individual or group that is sufficiently unpleasant so that these preferences are abandoned, there is an overtone of punishment.”[15]
For example, it was recorded that citizen participation in some of the most violent municipalities or those with criminal presence was up to 20 percentage points higher than the national average. This means that up to 20% of the population voted the most in those municipalities with a high criminal presence, in contrast to the national average participation that was registered on June 4. This situation was reported in municipalities such as Tantoyuca, Veracruz, in which 72.7% participated when the state average of participation was 59%. The same case is in Río Verde and Matehuala in San Luis Potosí, which had 58 and 59 percent respectively when the state average was 48%. A similar case in municipalities of Tamaulipas, as was the case of Ciudad Mante, which registered participation of 67%, when at the state level it was 52%. This is also the case in Guerrero, in municipalities such as Ciudad Altamirano, or in La Huacana in Michoacán, to name a few.
These situations were not isolated events during the Mexican electoral process; Mexico is facing an increasing trend of violence. The murders of candidates or postulants for a public position show only a part and the magnitude of the problem.
Facts: In the past electoral process, armed groups of civilians (militia) are identified by the witnesses in 66 % of the murders of politicians. Of those murders, 76 % of the victims were in opposition to the local authority.[16] Organized crime was involved in the electoral process, as the numbers show. Integralia reported 239 violent actions, with the specific intent to influence the way people voted. The purpose of these violent groups is to keep access to privileged information, control municipal and local police forces, and preference in public works contracts.[17]
Definition of Terrorism: The meaning according to the law, both in Mexican and the United States laws.
In Mexico, the Criminal Federal Code states that a terrorist is anyone using toxic substances, chemical, biological or similar weapons, radioactive material, nuclear material, nuclear fuel, radioactive mineral, source of radiation or instruments that emit radiation, explosives, or firearms, or by fire, flood or any other violent means, who intentionally performs acts against goods or services, whether public or private, or against the physical, emotional, or life of persons, that cause alarm, fear or terror in the population or in a group or sector of it, to undermine national security or pressure the authority or an individual, or compel the latter to make a determination.”[18]
In the United States, the U.S. Code states in title 18, section 2331 “international terrorism” means activities that involve violent acts or acts dangerous to human life that is a violation of the criminal laws of the United States or of any State, or that would be a criminal violation if committed within the jurisdiction of the United States or of any State;…appear to be intended: to intimidate or coerce a civilian population; to influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion; or to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping; and occur primarily outside the territorial jurisdiction of the United States, or transcend national boundaries in terms of the means by which they are accomplished, ….”[19]
What do the laws in both countries have in common? Both legislations state that terrorism includes, among other actions, the one using violence against other people to influence the civilian population or government in some way. After this brief comparison, the question is, what are the main criteria to determine who a terrorist is?
Comparison: Homeland Security and the US Intelligence Community classify the Mexican organized crime that has been doing terrorist acts as “transnational criminal organizations,” not as “foreign terrorist organizations” or even as “global terrorism.”[20] [21] The question allows us to analyze some aspects of known groups already considered terrorists versus Mexican organized crime groups doing terrorist actions (MOCGTA).
Note: The following comparison uses public data of the government of the United States[22], statistics from Statista,[23] public data of the government of Mexico[24], and media references.[25]
| DATA / NAME | ISIS | MOCGTA |
| Money reserve estimated | USD 100M | $50 MMM USD (estimated income in 2 years) |
| Average yearly deaths rate | +5,000 people | +22,000 people |
| Activities | Oil, gas, donor, extortion, money laundering. | Money laundering, extortion, narcotics, and human trafficking, Huachicol. |
| Countries presence activity | Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Algeria, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and other 15 countries. | Mexico, United States, Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela |
| Strength | 8,000 to 16,000 estimated fighters | 500,000 estimated fighters |
Latest reports
Law enforcement fatalities: During 2020, more than 500 police officers were killed in Mexico, one of the highest rates recorded. In 2021, 218 police officers until July 9th.[26] This data just gives more evidence about the actual situation.
Public attacks: June 20th, Reynosa, Tamaulipas (19 people killed in streets); January 8th, Celaya Guanajuato (9 people killed in a funeral); March 18th, Coatepec, Estado de Mexico (13 law enforcement officers killed in an ambush); February 27th, Tonalá, Jalisco (11 people killed in a bar); July 1st, 2020, Guanajuato (27 people killed in a rehab center); June 26th, 2020 (attack against Police Chief of Mexico City by a command using automatic rifles and Barrett caliber 50, 2 bodyguards and a civilian were killed); November 4th, 2019, Bavispe, Sonora (9 people including 6 kids were killed in a road, LeBaron family, a Mexican-American family); October 14th, 2019, Aguililla, Michoacan (13 law enforcement officer killed), among others.
Homicides:2019 was the worst year in homicides with 29,483; 2020 had a modest decrease to 28,831. And in 2021, the homicides registered 12,101 until June.
U.S. Opinion: Last May, the Air Force General Glen D. VanHerck, Commander, U.S. Northern Command, said: “they’re all symptoms of transnational criminal organizations who are oftentimes operating in ungoverned areas — 30 percent to 35 percent of Mexico”.[27]
In recent days, some of the highest-level positions of the government of the United States visited Mexico: May 26th, David Cohen, Deputy Director of CIA; June 8th, Vice-President Kamala Harris; June 15th, Alejandro Mayorkas, Secretary of Homeland Security; and July 7th, Air Force General Glen D. VanHerck, Commander, U.S. Northern Command.
Both countries have national security threats with different effects. While Mexico is facing the highest rates of violence, the United States is struggling with a record number of deaths caused by an overdose of narcotics. In addition to migration, money laundering, and others, these threats are the core of the need for cooperation. Other legal aspects have to be reviewed, modernized, and homologated, such as Mexico’s recently reformed laws.[28]
All these data leads to a complicated decision for the U.S. government; whether to recognize these groups for what they are and consequently redefine the strategy against these violent organized crime groups’ terrorist activities on foreign soil, or continue to ignore the growing problem. Not to mention that Mexico’s Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard did the same when in response to the attack against Mexicans in El Paso, Texas, stated that it was an “act of terrorism.”
The president wants an agreement to be reached in Michoacán through a negotiating table, without understanding the phenomenon he faces. Drug cartels do not respond to a cause – he regularly mistakes criminals for guerrillas, who respond to political reasons and projects – but money. They have no ideology but rather an expansionary ambition to increase their markets and illicit profits. Setting up a negotiating table where drug traffickers participate is absurd. The government could say in public that it does not negotiate with criminals. Still, this is what it tried to do in practice, without knowing who they would have among their interlocutors. The result of the terrible strategy followed by the federal authorities is the anxiety they caused and the violence of which, even in that region, there was no memory.[29]
More than one member of the high command in the army privately recognizes that far from being grateful or pampered by the president, they feel humiliated and annoyed by orders not to act against criminals or in self-defense; they are concerned that, in situations of risk to the life of the troops, they are forbidden of acting under penalty of being accused and prosecuted for “massacring the good people who only seek justice.”
Sadly, the president has no ears for anything he does not want to hear. He lives surrounded by ideological ghosts, fearful of being remembered for genocide; as a candidate, he accused the Army of the massacre of children when a Navy unit in a helicopter was responding fire to a group of criminals who were firing their Barrets. By the way, all the criminals were adults. He still considers that a massacre is committed only by law enforcement forces; he does not acknowledge a shooting against the civilian population perpetrated by criminals as a massacre. He gets excited when he brags rhetorically, “There are no more massacres.” The fact is, there are; massacres in the past few months are mentioned in the previous paragraphs.
In response to the announcement of the launch of the self-defense forces in Chiapas, the next morning, July 20, the president declared, “… the State has an obligation to guarantee peace and tranquility, you cannot do justice by your own hand, no one can do that, that is illegal, and that should not be accepted. No one should arm themselves to accept a supposed situation of insecurity,” he stressed.”[30] The surge of self-defense forces in many parts of the country is in response to the State’s lack of action. Then the question is: Who is in charge in México?
SEPGRA Political Analysis Group.
[1] (Francisco Garfias, Excelsior, https://www.excelsior.com.mx/opinion/francisco-garfias/abrazos-no-balazos-eso-no-sirve-en-aguililla/1460461)
[2] Proceso 170721 p.6
[3] https://youtu.be/rFZlQxK9DSw
[4] https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/opinion/raymundo-riva-palacio/2021/07/15/aguililla-nueva-derrota-del-ejercito/)
[5] https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/tv/story/2021-06-30/somos-netflix-review-allende-massacre
[6] https://www.lemonde.fr/series-d-ete/article/2021/07/16/le-mexique-sous-l-emprise-tentaculaire-de-la-mafiocratie_6088486_3451060.html
[7] (https://sepgra.com/mexicos-demolition-derby-new-areas-to-obliterate/)
[8] (https://sepgra.com/the-republic-of-words/)
[9] (https://sepgra.com/mexicos-demolition-derby-new-areas-to-obliterate/)
[10] idem
[11] Reforma 7/16/2021 https://www.reforma.com/desbordanconflictos/ar2221750?v=4
[12] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/07/14/upshot/drug-overdose-deaths.html?smid=url-share
[13] Political Violence in Mexico, Seventh Report, Etellekt Consultores. Available at: https://www.etellekt.com/informe-de-violencia-politica-en-mexico-2021-J21-etellekt.html
[14] Organized Crime and the Electoral Process 2020 – 2021, Integralia Consultores. Available at: https://integralia.com.mx/web/index.php/2021/06/25/reporte-especial-crimen-organizado-y-el-proceso-electoral-2020-2021/
[15] John Kenneth Galbraith, “The Anatomy of Power”
[16] Political Violence in Mexico, Seventh Report, Etellekt Consultores. Available at: https://www.etellekt.com/informe-de-violencia-politica-en-mexico-2021-J21-etellekt.html
[17] Integralia, “Crimen organizado y el proceso electoral de 2020 – 2021”. Available at: https://integralia.com.mx/web/index.php/2021/06/25/reporte-especial-crimen-organizado-y-el-proceso-electoral-2020-2021/
[18] Article 139, Fraction I, Criminal Federal Code of Mexico. Available at: http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf_mov/Codigo_Penal_Federal.pdf
[19] U.S. Code Title 18, Section 2331. Available at: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331
[20] Homeland Security, “Homeland Threat Assessment,” October 2020. Available at: https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/2020_10_06_homeland-threat-assessment.pdf
[21] Office of the Director of National Intelligence, “Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community for 2021”. Available at: https://www.hsdl.org/c/2021-annual-threat-assessment-released/
[22] Available at: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/references/terrorist-organizations/ and ]DEA, “National Drug Threat Assessment 2020”. Available at: https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-02/DIR-008-21%202020%20National%20Drug%20Threat%20Assessment_WEB.pdf
[23] Available at: https://www.statista.com/chart/20255/the-rise-and-fall-of-isis/
[24] Available at: https://www.gob.mx/sesnsp/acciones-y-programas/incidencia-delictiva-del-fuero-comun-nueva-metodologia?state=published
[25] Available at https://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/14/world/isis-everything-you-need-to-know/index.html and https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/25/world/map-isis-attacks-around-the-world.html, https://www.reporteindigo.com/reporte/la-geografia-del-crimen-en-mexico-informes-desactualizados-diferencias-seguridad/ Conflict Armament Research, “Weapons of the Islamic State.” Available at:https://www.conflictarm.com/reports/weapons-of-the-islamic-state/ https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2017/jul/19/islamic-state-customised-car-bombs-iraq-pictures
[26] Causa en Común, “Registro de policías asesinados”. Available at: http://causaencomun.org.mx/beta/registro-de-policias-asesinados-2020/
[27] Press Briefing available at: https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2539561/usnorthcom-ussouthcom-joint-press-briefing/
[28] National Security Law, available at: https://www.dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5608287&fecha=18%2F12%2F2020
[29] https://www.ejecentral.com.mx/estrictamente-personal-aguililla-nueva-derrota-del-ejercito/
[30] https://www.milenio.com/politica/amlo-autodefensas-chiapas-delincuentes-pleitos-caciques
Attachment, Criminal Map of Mexico 1989-2019 by Lantia Intelligence
(To see graphs and tables in full, reduce the size to 80% using the buttons at the bottom)
Mapa-criminal-de-México-2019-2020-versión-ejecutiva-Lantia-Intelligence-bis