摩根大通的戴维·凯利：简而言之，关税的麻烦在于它们会推高物价、减缓经济增长、削减利润、增加失业、加剧不平等、降低生产率并加剧全球紧张局势。除此之外，它们都还不错。

特朗普的关税政策=（通货膨胀+经济衰退）=（滞胀）²

特朗普的关税政策对美国和世界经济产生了重大影响。关税只是对进口商品征收的税款，据称是为了保护美国工业和就业。然而，其影响在全球范围内是深远的、多方面的

首先，特朗普及其经济顾问将关税与贸易平衡混为一谈。他所说的其他国家对美国征收的关税实际上是两国之间商品和服务贸易差额的结果；例如，如果X国向美国出口的商品和服务总额为10美元，而美国仅出口商品和服务总额为5美元，则X国占5美元的贸易顺差（或顺差），而X国向美国的出口占其总产量的特定百分比（GDP）。 这与X国对美国出口产品征收y%关税无关；计算结果不包括X国对美国征收的关税（如果有的话），正如他在提出“善意”互惠关税所依据的数字时暗示的那样。

一种所谓复杂的方法来确定适用于每个国家的关税水平，只考虑进口和美国与每个国家的贸易逆差。贸易逆差除以进口。得出百分比，欧盟为39%（贸易逆差为2355. 571亿美元，美国从欧洲的进口额为6067.6亿美元），或中国的67%（贸易逆差为2950亿美元，美国进口额为4380亿美元），然后除以2，以证明他有多么“宽容”，在之前的31%关税的基础上，欧盟和中国的关税分别上调至20%和34%。这是美国贸易代表办公室给出的解释：

基本上，这意味着一个国家的保护主义水平等于其与美国贸易顺差（superavit）除以对美国的出口。截至上个月，中国对美国的总体关税约为23%，而白宫的图表显示中国的关税和贸易壁垒为67%。作为回应，白宫在已对该国征收的关税基础上又增加了34%的新关税。将美国2024年对华商品贸易逆差（2950亿美元）除以美国从中国进口的商品金额，得出白宫的67%。

对美国经济的影响。

关税将导致美国GDP下降，预计降幅为-1.8%至-4.8%（由于疫情，2020年GDP为-2.21%）。 这一下降归因于进口商品成本增加，从而减少了消费者支出和企业投资。 此外，由于其他国家对美国商品征收关税进行报复，关税将减少美国出口。

尽管对经济造成了负面影响，但关税预计将为美国政府带来可观的收入。据估计，在未来十年内，关税将带来近3.2万亿美元的财政收入。然而，这种收入是有代价的，因为关税将减少美国的经济产出和收入。关税对某些行业的影响尤其大，例如农业和制造业。农民受到的打击尤为严重，因为他们严重依赖对其他国家的出口。关税还将导致依赖进口商品和零部件的制造商成本增加。

在股票市场交易的技术公司的价值是人为的；它并不反映公司资产的实际价值或其在特定时期内为投资者创造回报的能力（除非他们以盈利的价格出售股票），而是对股价还能上涨多少的投机结果。这是疫情期间为提振世界经济而采取的反周期措施导致大量资金涌入的结果，这导致科技公司的股价飞涨，突破万亿美元大关。

2020年和2021年，除了接近零或负利率之外，人类历史上还出现了最广泛的货币创造。在短短两年内，全球货币供应量增长了61%。2022年4月，美联储将其资产负债表规模从4.1万亿美元增加到8.9万亿美元。仅仅两年就增加了3.3万亿美元。欧洲中央银行（ECB）在此期间将其资产规模从4.7万亿欧元增加到8.2万亿欧元。以美元计算，全球货币供应量增加了约11.3万亿美元，而2022年的全球GDP达到了100万亿美元。如果再加上各国政府在极端财政政策计划中增加的财政支出，那么我们对经济活动的迅速复苏、全球通货膨胀现象以及各种金融市场产生的泡沫（现在正在收缩）和全球供应链中断就不应该感到惊讶了。

影响世界经济。

特朗普对几乎所有国家征收关税，扰乱了全球贸易，引发了人们对贸易战的担忧。我们很可能会因此经历一场全球性衰退。花费数年时间建立的供应链将在美国以外的地方继续生存，但难免会受到一些干扰。据路透社报道，关税“给正在从疫情后通货膨胀激增中复苏的脆弱世界经济带来了压力”。欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯·德莱恩称这是“对世界经济的一次重大打击”，中国、欧盟和日本等国家受到的打击尤为严重。特朗普的关税将使中国更加繁荣。尽管新征收的34%关税将总关税提高到了65%，但它促使中国将其产品推向多元化市场，尤其是那些受特朗普政策重创的国家，如欧洲、澳大利亚、亚洲（包括日本和韩国）以及加拿大和墨西哥，这些国家的产品质量上乘，价格却比美国人提供的更低。

尽管中国已成为全球最重要的制造业国家，但其出口仅占GDP的20%。中国人口收入增加，消费随之增长，许多产品的国内市场也随之扩大。创新在各个层面和领域都得到优先考虑和推动，这使得西方产品变得过时且昂贵，而本地产品则相反。此外，《经济学人》杂志明确指出，“随着美国筑起高墙，中国将有机会通过向伙伴国家提供制造业投资，而不是向它们出口产品，来重新建立全球贸易关系”。

由于这只是风暴的开始，我们将继续分析、调整预测并向订阅者报告结果，因此，这个故事是，

未完待续……

Global Trade, Special Reports, World Economy

The Real Cost of Tariffs on US and World Economies.

April 5, 2025

 Trump’s Tariffs = (Inflation + Recession) = (Stagflation)²

Trump’s tariffs significantly affect the US and the world’s economy. Tariffs are simply taxes on imported goods, allegedly imposed to protect American industries and jobs. However, their impact has been far-reaching and multifaceted globally. 

To begin with, Trump and his economic advisers confuse tariffs with trade balance. What he calls tariffs imposed by other countries on the US is actually the result of the difference between the goods and services traded between the two countries; for example, if country X exported to the US goods and services for a total of $10 and the US only exported goods and services for a total of $5, that gives a trade imbalance (or surplus) of $5 in favor of country X, whose exports to the US represent a given percentage of its total production (GDP).  That has nothing to do with country X imposing y% tariffs to the US exports to that country; the calculation does not include what country X charges the US as a tariff, if any, as he implied when presenting the figures on which he based “in good faith” his reciprocal tariffs.

A supposedly sophisticated methodology to determine the tariff level to be applied to each country only considered imports and the trade deficit the United States maintains with each country. The trade deficit is divided by imports. That gives a percentage, 39% in the case of the European Union (with a trade deficit of 235.571 Billion and US Imports from Europe of $606.76 Billion), or 67% in the case of China (with a trade deficit of $295 Billion and US Imports of $438 Billion), which is then divided by two as proof of how “lenient” he has been, rounding up 20% for the European Union and 34% for China in addition to previous tariffs of 31%. This is the explanation provided by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative:

  Basically, this says that the assumed level of a country’s protectionism is equal to its trade surplus (superavit) with the U.S. divided by its exports to the U.S. As of last month, Chinese tariffs against the U.S. were about 23% overall, and the White House chart said China’s tariffs and trade barriers were 67%. In response, the White House added new tariffs of 34% atop levies already charged to that country. Dividing the U.S.’s 2024 goods-trade deficit with China—$295 billion—by the amount the U.S. imported from China resulted in the White House’s 67%.

Economic Impact on the US Economy.

The tariffs will cause a decline in US GDP, with estimates suggesting a reduction of -1.8 % to -4.8 % (It was -2.21 negative in 2020 due to the pandemic). This decline is attributed to the increased costs of imported goods, which reduce consumer spending and business investment. Additionally, the tariffs will decrease US exports as other countries retaliate with their own tariffs on American goods.

Despite the negative economic impact, the tariffs supposedly will generate significant revenue for the US government. The tariffs are estimated to raise nearly $3.2 trillion in revenue over the next decade. However, this revenue comes at a cost, as the tariffs will reduce US economic output and incomes. The tariffs disproportionately impact certain industries, such as agriculture and manufacturing. Farmers have been particularly hard hit, as they rely heavily on exports to other countries. The tariffs will also lead to increased costs for manufacturers dependent on imported goods and components.

The value of tech companies trading in the stock market is artificial; it does not reflect the actual value of a company’s assets or its ability to generate returns to investors in a given period (unless they sell their stock at a profit), but the result of speculation as to how much more the stock price can increase. This is a result of the deluge of funds dispersed as a countercyclical measure to boost the world economy during the pandemic, which sent sky-high rocketing the stock prices of tech companies, making them break the trillion-dollar benchmark.

The years 2020 and 2021, in addition to interest rates around zero or negative, saw the most extensive money creation in human history. In just two years, the global money supply grew by 61 percent. The Federal Reserve increased the size of its balance sheet from $4.1 trillion to $8.9 trillion in April 2022. An increase of $3.3 trillion in just two years. The European Central Bank (ECB) increased the size of its assets from 4.7 trillion to 8.2 trillion euros in the period. In dollar terms, the increase in the global money supply was around 11.3 trillion dollars for a world GDP that in 2022 reached 100 trillion dollars. If we add to this the increase in fiscal spending by governments in their extreme fiscal policy programs, then we should not be surprised by the rapid recovery in economic activity and the phenomenon of global inflation that we experienced, along with the bubbles that were generated in the various financial markets, which are now deflating, and the disruption in global supply chains.

Impacting the world economy.

The effects of Trump’s tariffs on nearly every nation have disrupted global trade and sparked fears of a trade war. Most likely, we will live through a global recession as a result. The supply chains that took years to build will survive outside the US, but not without some disruptions. According to Reuters, the tariffs have “piled stress on an ailing world economy” still recovering from the post-pandemic inflation surge. The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen calls them a “major blow to the world economy”, with countries such as China, the European Union, and Japan being hit particularly hard. Trump’s tariffs will make China prosper a lot. Even though the new levy of 34% increases the total duties to 65%, it is inducing China to diversify the markets for its products, especially with those countries heavily punished by Trump’s policies, like those in Europe, Australia, Asia, including Japan and South Korea, and even Canada and Mexico, with products of superior quality and lower prices than those offered by Americans.

Even though China became the most prominent world manufacturer, its exports represent only 20% of its GDP. Its population has received a boost in income, translated in increased consumption, expanding the domestic market for many of its products. Innovation is prioritized and promoted at all levels and sectors, making Western products obsolete and expensive compared to local offerings. Also, as clearly pointed out in The Economist, “as the US puts up walls, China will have a chance to reset trade relations around the world by offering to invest in manufacturing in partner countries rather than flooding them with exports”.

As this is just the beginning of the storm, we will continue to analyze, adjust projections and report the findings to our subscribers, hence this story is,

SEPGRA Economic Analysis Group

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