Antonio Navalón
The middle class cast approximately half the thirty million votes in 2018. The upper middle class and the upper class, those with an instinct for self-preservation and a certain ethical sense, were disgusted to live in a kleptocracy such as the one at the end of Enrique Peña Nieto’s six-year term. There were many leaders of the so-called Mexican society – the one so reviled and hated during that period – who stepped forward and voted with their eyes closed for Andrés Manuel López Obrador. They did so thinking that they would be giving an opportunity to the new, to the different, but, above all, to the unknown. They also voted to believe this would eradicate corruption, abuse, and institutional dishonesty in exercising power.
Now, President López Obrador is aware that to achieve his wishes, he needs the collaboration of the middle class once again. In this sense – and recognizing his enormous power to seduce, persuade, and even kidnap public opinion – organizing and filtering everything that happened with Marcelo Ebrard is essential. Between when he was leaving and when he is now staying, it is necessary to analyze the context and background of what the former Secretary of Foreign Affairs represents for Morena, for Sheinbaum, and, above all, for President López Obrador. First, he was his Secretary of Public Security, a position from which he was removed in 2004 by then-President Vicente Fox after the violence in Tláhuac. Then, in 2005, he returned to López Obrador’s team as Secretary of Social Development to set the course for his candidacy and subsequent victory as Head of Government of Mexico City. The key to being elected as Lopez Obrador’s successor was the budgetary management and resources at his disposal, which were vital for the investment, protection, and consolidation of Lopez Obrador’s political performance.
More than eighteen years of sustained campaigning are humanly complicated and economically impossible. Without the financing facilitated by Marcelo Ebrard, the movement led by current president López Obrador for so many years would have hardly survived. Not only that, in 2012, Ebrard contested as a pre-candidate and conceded to then-candidate López Obrador, who lost the election to Enrique Peña Nieto.
According to Ebrard’s statement, Morena admitted irregularities in the party’s internal election that would determine who would be chosen to run for the presidency of Mexico. He also argues that he had up to three conversations with Dr. Sheinbaum in which both agreed that it was more important to ensure the continuity and unity of Morena in power than to be right or wrong about the internal election process. Meanwhile, President López Obrador – as befits the father, the Messiah, and the unquestionable man of the movement – had welcomed Marcelo back without anyone explaining what they had admitted or their conclusion about their conversation with Sheinbaum.
In regimes with such strong personalities, much of the game is to hijack what one can see. And what you are told you should feel is above everything visible. So, it’s imperative to go back and reconstruct that moment. Dr. Sheinbaum – demonstrating that everything will be more serious, academic, and professional from now on- dedicated herself to destroying the passing dream of harmonizing the different powers within Morena. First, she argued that in Morena, there is simply no room for factions or tribes. Then, she ignored the supposed talks and agreement reached with Marcelo Ebrard. And finally, she made it clear that there is already a new leader in charge and that everyone must align themselves with what she decides from here on.
Dr. Claudia Sheinbaum said everything that President López Obrador did not say. But, above all, if the political benefit of being elected is that she would be supported and approved by all the people around her, she was in charge of destroying everything from the first minute.
Marcelo remained silent and refrained from arguing any further and – as if it were an extension of his wife’s triumphant face – continued to live and contain what is undoubtedly the best-kept secret, which is what he talked and agreed with López Obrador. To better understand the situation, it is necessary to mention that no politician has had a deeper, more dependent, and riskier relationship than the one Marcelo Ebrard has had with President López Obrador. Many questions still do not have a clear answer, such as, for example, who will finally be the face that will lead the 4T or who will be able to gather enough votes to continue in power. Undoubtedly, the one who fulfilled – or may continue to fulfill – the desired characteristics is Marcelo Ebrard. A character who could have been Dante Delgado’s candidate and the one who could get the desired votes for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
With everything happening, it is clear that the Fourth Transformation – and always following the President’s instructions – is making changes and adjustments that have everything to do with the final electoral result that will be revealed in June of next year. With all this, I am not saying that Marcelo may be the candidate in the end. Or maybe he will? What is clear is that it is becoming challenging to project what may happen from this moment on. We all have a huge deficit, and we are at a clear disadvantage since no one knows the real will of the President of the Republic. And make no mistake, the baton of command for the moment may be held by Dr. Sheinbaum, but the one who really has the command is called Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Politics can be fun, provided it contains excitement, challenge, and mystery. Probably President López Obrador realized he was tired; maybe Ebrard realized that outside the president’s umbrella and the 4T, the sun is merciless; or, maybe what happened is that the one who holds the baton – and I don’t know if she is also in charge – was having one of those difficult days. Whatever the case may have been, what is certain is that there is no choice but to analyze well what Marcelo’s return to the 4T fold means. And above all, it is necessary to pay close attention to what will happen during this time in which it is already beginning to be outlined with whom, how, and with what offer it will be possible to hook the voters to exercise their vote next year in their favor.
For the corresponding political analysis demanded by the situation, it will be necessary to consider what will be done, on the one hand, by the one elected and designated by the internal poll of Morena as a candidate and also what will be the strategy adopted by the opposition. In any case, it is essential to know that in the end, the only decision subject to a permanent poll – in the sense that it has all the possibilities of winning – is what President López Obrador will want to do. Therefore, it is essential to analyze what kind of power the current Mexican president really wants for the immediate future and what kind of consistency not only his candidate should have but also those who accompany her on her way to power, as is the case of Ebrard himself.
The 2024 presidential elections will show, to a great extent, whether everything that has happened so far was a mistake or a success. From this point of view, whatever they tell you and, even if he is not part of the front page, from this point on, dedicate yourself to following Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Marcelo Ebrard Casaubón. They have a shared history and a bond so consolidated for so many years that no one else inside or outside the movement can boast. Marcelo and Andrés Manuel, a history that goes beyond an election.
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