Antonio Navalón
From the origins of Sun Tzu’s “The Art of War” to the present day, it has always been known that wars are fought between people and people – regardless of their ethnic, religious, social, or any other origin – we have a repertoire of actions and reactions derived from our feelings and moods. In other words, humans are often driven more by what we feel than logic and reason. To give some examples, anger, envy, resentment, and hatred are feelings that have initiated and triggered countless wars and battles throughout our history.
Everyone who is a good warrior knows that war can only be total and that it is one thing to use war drums to scare people and another thing that once the battle starts, there is no room for doubt, and everything boils down to two possibilities: defeat or be defeated. Either all means are used to achieve victory, or the enemy will take advantage of the lukewarmness shown and will not think twice to be victorious. That said, it is necessary to change the perspective on what is happening in our country and stop arguing or trying to interpret the current scenario or where things are headed.
We are in the middle of a total war where the first mandate is to annul the triumph, the will, and any possibility of enemy victory. Secondly, it is necessary to make scorched land and make it clear that there will be no forgiveness, forgetfulness, mercy, or commiseration for those who are or are part of the opposing side. Before the arrival of Hernán Cortés, the wars in Mexico were savage and brutal, such as the battles fought between Aztecs, Toltecs, and Tlaxcalans and the confrontations between the different pre-Hispanic and pre-colonial tribes and civilizations. It was not until the colonizing and invading power, the Spain of the Catholic Monarchs and Hernán Cortés, set foot on Mexican soil for the first time and changed the course of history. The arrival of the Spaniards in Mexico is a topic that remains debatable in Europe because it is still unclear which country acted more cruelly, Spain or Turkey.
There are so many books written about the Spanish Civil War and the traces it left with time that it is not complicated to understand why it was necessary not only to win – which is obvious – but also why it was necessary to eliminate any possibility of retaliation by those who were being defeated. It was not enough to kill them; it was also required to hang them from the telegraph poles and expose them in the public streets so that everyone could witness the fate of anyone not part of the victorious side.
Let no one be mistaken; from today until June 2, 2024, the war is total and without a quarter. There will be no law or instrument of the State or anything that can protect us from the needs and interests of power. We have no other possibility and hope than that the problems and operational needs of those who want to win at the expense or making use of the resources of the State will multiply so much that they will not have time or capacity to carry out everything they have planned. Therefore, I am not surprised that the main leaders of the political parties that make up the Frente por México have an enormous temptation. To win the presidency? I doubt it. To prevent Morena from gaining a majority in Congress? If they can avoid it, they will do it without thinking about it. In the end, the great temptation is to continue occupying their seats in the Senate and in the Chamber of Deputies, which – as things currently stand – seems to depend more on whoever is in charge of the country’s direction than on the will of the Mexican people.
No one should be deceived since everything that happens in the political evolution of our country will be accompanied by the specter of not obtaining the 30 million votes – which is practically impossible to achieve and something that President López Obrador would neither forgive nor allow. For this reason, it is indispensable to achieve a resounding and indisputable victory. To consummate the transition desired by the leader of Morena and leave no doubt about his mandate and legacy, Claudia Sheinbaum has the responsibility and task of winning in such a way that there are no doubts, leaving the opposition with no chance.
For many years, there has been a pending issue in Mexican democracy, which is the issue related to migrants. I have witnessed the tragedies suffered by Mexicans who emigrate from the country, especially those who seek new opportunities in the United States. But beyond the importance of this issue, what is most relevant for next year’s elections is the ability, freedom, and, above all, the voting preference of Mexicans who do not reside in our territory.
Since the creation of the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE), there has been a constant debate on the Mexican population census and the capacities and rights of Mexicans living abroad. Under these circumstances and being aware that Sheinbaum will have to obtain a total victory, it will be indispensable that all Mexican Consulates abroad serve as electoral offices of the National Electoral Institute (INE) and that the passport be cataloged as a valid document to vote. With so many millions of Mexicans living specifically in the United States, this is and will be crucial to tip the balance to either side. To achieve this, it is essential to create a narrative capable of giving a sense of identity and belonging to those who live abroad with reality and with whoever wins the election.
Having said the above, something that may have surprised many but I saw as logical was the appearance of the slogan #EsClaudia on the screens in Times Square of the Big Apple last Tuesday, September 26. Indeed, it was a simulation or a test, but what is not a test is her desire to monopolize the will and vote of migrants. While this is happening in the Big Apple, the discussion continues to rage as to whether the Frente por México members want to beat the odds and win the electoral race. So far, The presidential election that has been directed from the National Palace and entrusted by Claudia Sheinbaum does not waste a second in consolidating the economic and political territorial dominance over the electoral body.
Given the importance that remittances have acquired, which means the significant failure of the migratory issue for Mexico and the United States, it does not surprise me that there is a whole strategy and plan of action to get all the votes from abroad. But, above all, it made them believe that not only were they guilty of forcing them to look for more and better opportunities across the borders, but that they intended to accompany them in this pseudo-migratory revolution that has been underway for years.
To achieve this, the first part of the plan consists of dominating the electoral process; for that, it is essential first to control the INE. Then, the multiplication of all the elements of development and infrastructure, using the Consulates located mainly in the United States. And finally, it is necessary to create a collaboration mechanism between the Mexican and U.S. governments to give an excellent solution to the migratory future. Morena and, mainly, Sheinbaum, as the Advocate of the Fourth Transformation, are looking for migrants to be a decisive factor that allows continuity and consolidates the movement initiated by López Obrador.
I am not surprised that the campaign has started on the super screens of Times Square; what it is really about is that no law, precondition, or any situation can bring doubt that the victory will have to be unappealable. That is why #EsClaudia.
In any case, it is necessary to understand that this campaign is one in which not only all precedents are being broken. It is an unprecedented campaign that started in 2018 – or even earlier – and is still ongoing. And there will hardly be any doubt that, with each and every mañanera, this administration has been more about words and speeches than facts and results. Claudia Sheinbaum comes and does so, first, trying to live up to her predecessor. Despite being aware of the difficulty of reaching the more than thirty million votes obtained by Lopez Obrador, she has the illusion and the hope of achieving victory. Dr. Sheinbaum is also aware that, to reach her plans and goals next year, she will have to earn a resounding triumph that leaves no doubts and allows her to govern freely. Sheinbaum will not be able to achieve the historic support obtained by López Obrador; however, she knows that she has to take advantage of the opportunity represented by the vote of migrants in the United States and will do everything possible to count on them. These are millions of votes that will make it impossible to prove their validity or origin. Not only that, the upcoming elections are also exciting and unique because, on the one hand, there is the adjustment of the new INE and, on the other hand, the coincidence with the U.S. electoral process.
The war begins; who will win it, and how?
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