Antonio Navalón
The various modifications of European borders throughout history can be likened to open-heart surgery. Since the Greeks and since the time of the Roman Empire, there has never been a peaceful alteration of Europe’s geographical boundaries. Today, the case is no different. Europe is currently bleeding and afraid. In the last week, the European continent has taken a qualitative leap that only the very special conditions of the times we are living in can justify.
I am astonished to see the Ukrainian debt game already unpayable, whichever way you look at it. It is very worrying to have a war with Russia by proxy, especially since Russia’s great fear is an invasion. The essence of Russians is composed of a strange mixture of sentimentality, tears, and extreme violence. Since their birth and throughout their history, they have always been the ones who, either to defend themselves or to attack, have played in that macabre dance that involves altering borders.
The fault is not only theirs but also valid that Ukraine is the latest manifestation of hundreds of years old trends. But, after what happened last week and the essential and accumulated failure of Vladimir Putin and his armed forces in Ukraine for more than sixteen months, it remains to be asked how far we will go. Could the thesis be true that the whole set-up of the Wagner group was nothing more than a ruse to settle in Belarus and, from there, attack Kyiv directly? Could it be true that the successive defeats of the Russian army are nothing more than the repetition of those that, at some point, the Soviet army had and that, after a Dantesque exhibition of death, allowed them to be the first force to enter Adolf Hitler’s fallen Berlin? It is difficult to know this, but it is unquestionable that since he came to power more than fifteen years ago, Putin is going through one of his worst moments.
Everyone considers Putin to be capable of anything; however, what we never calculated is that the same genius who can create – as the excellent spy that he is – the best hacking techniques, the best operations to poison people stealthily, or everything he has done covertly, has let himself grow old and has significantly neglected the commitment and the fight in favor of his society and his country. The Putin we see today is unrecognizable and a far cry from the strategist who was once capable of even putting an American president in the White House. But not only is he in an unknown state, but – as has been demonstrated since the first day he launched the operation over Ukraine – so is his army.
The war in Ukraine is unaffordable for the Ukrainian state, although the reality is that for other countries, that conflict is proving to be one of the best deals they have made in recent years. Ukraine owes so much to the United States and Europe that the collection can only be in kind or, in other words, the collection of Ukraine’s debt can only be through the weakening of Putin and Russia, despite the risk that this entails. A risk that, knowing Russia’s history, it is necessary to take into consideration that no one can guarantee that after Putin or once Putin has fallen, what comes next will not be much worse.
Joe Biden has not yet made the mistake of giving planes to the Ukrainian president. I hope, for everyone’s sake, that he does not do so because no matter how much they promise him that they will not use them to attack Russian territory, it would undoubtedly be a provocation that could produce nothing but the contagion of war and, of course, an escalation of military actions. I would be afraid if I were a Pole, a Hungarian, or in Belarus. Not afraid of Russia but of the chain reaction that may occur as a result of the Ukrainian movement, either accidentally or provoked. The fact is that we are currently in a situation where Russia is weakened both externally and internally. Its political leadership, which – due to the conditions and global role of the country – necessarily has to be strong and almost unbeatable, is suffering wear and tear that in Russian history has usually been paid for with the lives of its rulers.
The question here is where and how this will end: what would be the scenario of a war in which Ukraine brings Russia to its knees and not only does not lose any territory but proves that Russia can lose wars? And that it can lose them simply because the Russians are no longer willing to fight for their country and, secondly because their army is in terrible condition.
In the meantime, all the former dictators and all the rulers swarming around Western Europe and the more Easternized Europe – everyone involved in this dance – can and should be panicking about what may happen from here on. A Kremlin in the hands of an uncontested ruler as authoritarian as Putin is very dangerous, although a Kremlin with no one to rule and with the door open to any adventurer who might happen to succeed him is even more dangerous and frightening.
The United States is living its own internal war and with a polarization that is getting stronger every day. While all this is happening, Abraham Lincoln’s words that it is impossible to maintain or win with a house divided – and very divided indeed – are more valid than ever. The business of the military-industrial complex that Dwight Eisenhower disclosed in 1961, moments before ceding the presidency to John Fitzgerald Kennedy, that business is growing. We are currently having an exercise in modernization and arms purchases that inevitably puts China in a position where they either oppose and fight against the sale of that weaponry or do what they do best, which is to sell and add a new item of wealth to their production sources.
Speaking of Europe, another issue needs to be addressed: what is happening in France. France is currently in the midst of a situation that, in many ways, marks the consequences and gravity of the migratory crisis that has been developing in recent years on the European continent. With the overflow of migrants entering the major European countries, but, above all, with the lack of policies that would genuinely contribute to adequately managing this phenomenon, the situation has become untenable.
Eleven days before commemorating a new anniversary of the storming of the Bastille, curiously, an event arises that reminds us of the long tradition that the French has of solving their problems by means of uprisings. Today France is burning, and it is burning far beyond the social conflicts that are brewing. What is happening now resembles all the social hatred engendered by the multiple migratory movements that have taken place throughout the world. If the recent events in France can be compared to anything, it is the murder of George Floyd, which was the flame that sparked the tremendous social outburst in the United States and the emergence of the “Black Lives Matter” movement and provoked the necessary attention to a sector that has been marginalized for more than 400 years in the United States.
In this case, it was a 17-year-old young man named Nahel, whose family was of Algerian origin and who was killed by a policeman. An unforgivable event that has marked the beginning of protests and social discontent that we do not know how far they will go. It is not the first time this has happened in France; something similar happened in 2005 with the death of two teenagers at the hands of a policeman. However, now it seems to have greater depth and social discontent on the part of French society.
The migration issue is a pending subject to be solved. Above all, being aware that, especially in Europe, the majority of societies will be inherited by the children of migrants, changing from being a minority to becoming the majority and who will have the great responsibility to forge a better future. Unfortunately, there are other countries such as Russia, Hungary, Poland, and some other countries that – being on the verge of being democratic nations – have not yet recognized the gravity and current state of the circumstance. And the fact is that, at the end of the day, while Putin has become all of those mentioned above, one of the serious problems from here on is knowing what will stabilize Europe.
Summers in Europe are difficult and are usually accompanied by turbulence either in the form of heat waves or, as in this case, latent threats that can explode at any moment. In the summers, people tend to rest and seek distraction; however, it should not be forgotten that, on a summer like this one, in 1939, everything got out of control, and a step was taken with no turning back. Let us hope that this is not the case.
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