Executive Summary
The 2024 election consolidated the realignment of the party system
that began in 2018. A hegemonic party system of uncertain
duration is being created, and the three parties of the so-called
Mexican transition to democracy is displaced from the center of the
electoral map.
● Morena, Partido Verde (PVEM), and Movimiento Ciudadano won
more votes in most states than they did in 2018; in contrast, PAN lost
votes in 26 states and PRI in 31. PRD lost registration by failing to
reach the threshold of three percent of the national vote.
● Claudia Sheinbaum became the first female president of Mexico and
North America. With her victory, she got the largest number of votes
in the history of the country and the widest victory margin.
● Sheinbaum received majorities in all entities of the country (except
Aguascalientes) and in most economic and educational levels of the
electorate. There is no cleavage in this election: Neither regional as in
2006 (when the country split into North-South) nor socioeconomic
(as was slightly the case in 2018). Sheinbaum gave an upward push to
all of Morena’s candidacies. She won more votes than her coalition’s
congressional candidacies (approximately five points).
● In contrast, Xóchitl Gálvez received almost one million fewer votes
than her coalition for Congress. More voters cast their votes for
opposition parties than for their presidential candidate.
● Morena’s cross-vote (the president-deputies vote difference) fell
from 7.2 percentage points in 2018 to 4.7 in 2024; that is, the
strategy of mass voting in favor of continuity worked.
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