This date will define whether Mexicans choose to end the political party regime in the face of the emergence of an empowered citizenry or whether they choose to end the democratic experience and submit to an autocracy that concentrates all the power of the State in a single person. That is all there is to it.
In the first case, the political parties that have had control of the system of government with alternations for more than two decades will have to reinvent themselves in order to attract the support of a citizenry that has had enough of their power games. There are some that evolved through almost a century to become the spoils of gangs (PRI, PAN, PRD), and others of recent origin that since their foundation emerged as family businesses disguised as activists for ecology (Green Party), for citizenship (Movimiento Ciudadano), for workers’ rights (PT), or for the defense of the poor (Morena). Except for the last one, which also has only one owner, all of them sell their support, affiliation, and loyalty to the highest bidder during the electoral processes, either as part of coalitions or nominating candidates as scabs to subtract votes from the opponents of their client’s candidate.
In the second case, it is enough to see the result of five years of a schizophrenic model of government that is a miracle. It is so because, despite their best efforts, they were unable to destroy an economic engine fueled by exports to their northern neighbors/partners, thanks to a trade agreement foreseen and orchestrated thirty years ago by the now demonized neoliberal regime, which, at the same time, created the institutions that foster and support the development of democracy that this regime is bent on destroying.
He had everything lined up to be a great President: popular support, legitimacy, a healthy economy, a qualified majority in Congress, a fully supportive private sector, a favorable trade agreement with the world’s largest economy next door, professionals in charge of democratic institutions, respectability and international goodwill, a climate of peace and social concord, negligible opposition, a strong health and social welfare system covering a substantial percentage of the population, particularly the lower income, violence and organized crime reasonably under control, a large world-class airport already fully funded and more than one-third completed, abundant liquidity to operate without raising taxes, favorable media, and an extremely valuable intangible: people’s enthusiasm, willingness and hope to improve their standard of living by expanding opportunities, to end rampant corruption, and to provide security and certainty in their daily lives.
He failed the Mexicans.
The image that best projects this six-year term is him being rescued by a truck and his security cabinet on the back panel after failing to continue advancing in a quagmire mounted on an army jeep that ended up stranded in the mud. The most powerful man in Mexico could not make it to Acapulco after a severe storm, not even with the help and resources of the Defense and Navy Secretariats. Is that credible? That image exposed the level of ineptitude of this government. He was not the leader of Burundi or Belize, nor the mayor of Calpulalpan; he was voted to be the President of the country with the then twelfth (now fifteenth) largest economy in the world.
The cannibals who rule came to power thanks to those institutions they are now bent on destroying. The prevailing anarchy is the result of the deterioration caused by a sick man*, surrounded by looters, incompetents, hicks, ignorant and revengeful people who want to do away with a legitimate political system to replace it with a totalitarian regime that concentrates all power in one person, the closest thing to the Supreme Leader of the Iranian theocracy or the dictatorships of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.
For almost six years, we have been living a successive coup d’état, a concatenation of deliberate acts to destroy the republican counterweights. AMLO has shown that he can be above the law, controlling the executive branch, the Congress, and part of the judiciary, manipulating and blocking the appointment of officials in the autonomous bodies that watch over transparency, accountability, and clean elections, promoting unconstitutional laws that eliminate limits or restrictions to his powers and strangling institutions by cutting their budgets, including that of the Judiciary, and attacking Ministers, Judges and Magistrates, accusing them of corruption without the slightest hint of evidence.
As a result, Mexico is a highly polarized country where, in addition, organized crime has increased its territorial control; 27% of all municipalities in the country have been abandoned due to cartel violence, and of the remaining, 9% are uninhabitable due to violence (INEGI). In the 2021 election, 36 candidates and 102 politicians were assassinated. During the current electoral process, that count has increased to 225 and counting (Integralia). They don’t care about the poor as long as the handouts they give them assure them votes; that’s all they care about. In reality, they want as many poor people as possible. Demagogy is not only in the rhetoric of the morning sermons but even in the name of institutions to which the word welfare is added, and the most ridiculous one is the Institute to give back to the people what was stolen.
His candidate to succeed him already emulates demagogic politicians who usually make unrealistic promises, and when they come to power, they elevate them to constitutional rank as if that, by itself, would change reality. After that, they promote writing those constitutional rights in gold letters to place them on the walls of Congress and thus mark their feat in history. Instead of writing a book titled “Gracias” (“Thank You”), he should have published one titled “Perdónenme” (“Forgive Me”). It would be more appropriate for the irreparable damage done to the country by one who has deeply defrauded his people.
The Future.
The only way to save Mexico from becoming an autocracy is to oust this ruling faction by voting heavily in favor of the opposition—the real opposition, the one that has managed to rally millions to protest against the Lopez Obrador government.
Then, it would be necessary to start with concord in order to agree on a new social pact since the current one is battered, dented, and exhausted. From there on, to impose order, to put an end to the culture of tolerance, to comply and enforce the constitutional mandates without exceptions, to recover for the State the functions and obligations that correspond to it and that have been unduly awarded to criminal groups, without objection and even with the support, complacency, and complicity of the authorities themselves. Only in this way will it be possible to agree on a long-term national project with the next generations in mind, with clearly defined objectives, based on a strategy that considers policies, plans and programs, responsible institutions, and the resources to achieve them.
To this end, education must be promoted, health services must be provided, the crime must be prosecuted and controlled, and law enforcement must be guaranteed, procedures must be facilitated and, productive projects must be supported, paperwork must be simplified and streamlined to comply with civic obligations, useful and efficient infrastructure must be provided, institutions that guarantee the functioning of democratic processes and accountability and those that regulate equity in economic activity must be strengthened, and the full force of the State must be used for the benefit of Mexicans.
In addition to all of the above, the new government will receive a bankrupt treasury, with spending commitments far in excess of revenues collected and with an interest payment obligation on a public debt that far exceeds the payment capacity of a government that collects only a portion of what it could. In view of this, the challenge for the tax authority will be to make it very attractive for those who represent the largest percentage of economic activity, both businesses, and workers who operate informally, to become fully incorporated into the formal economic system in order to have access to all the benefits that this represents. In addition, many of those who are in the informal economy already pay a tax, but not to the tax authority, but to criminal groups and some authorities that extort them.
In summary, whoever wins the election will receive a government in bankruptcy, a level of violence that needs to be urgently addressed in a significant part of the territory, a culture of tolerance that needs to be replaced by one of compliance with the law, a government with mediocre officials who do not meet a minimum professional profile and whose poor pay justifies them to provide poor service, almost 40% of the population that lacks access to health services, an economy that during this administration had an average annual growth of less than 1%, an expenditure budget committed to pay campaign promises and to the payment of interest on a debt that they deny has increased, but that together absorb an amount greater than what is allocated to education, health, and security.
It is very desirable that the electoral process takes place in a civilized environment and that the result of the election is by a wide enough margin to avoid a crisis due to lack of legitimacy. The panorama looks different from outside the National Palace. It is necessary to do more than blame everything on a dirty war for the electoral stage, waged by the dark forces of the evil empire controlled by the emissaries of the past.
* https://sepgra.com/how-to-spot-a-self-centered-megalomaniac-psychopathic-narcissistic-president/
SEPGRA Political Analysis Group.
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