Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
The devastation caused to the coast of Guerrero, to 45 municipalities, and with Acapulco at its epicenter, goes beyond the unimaginable. There are scenes of destruction, collapse, and incredible fragility of structures, buildings, foliage, trees, and even hills and mountains. Everything was severely affected. The humanitarian crisis is colossal. The risks to the health of the population are already beginning to be observed. At the same time, organized crime assumes its role as protagonist in the expropriation of public (e.g., selling stolen gasoline -huachicol-) and private property (extortion, robbery, and looting).
Meanwhile, the Morena members of Congress decided to turn their backs on Guerrero with the Federal Expenditure Budget (PEF). The budget basically remains as AMLO had proposed before the hecatomb in Acapulco. All of the country’s resources will be directed primarily to the Mayan Train, to PEMEX (the big black hole), to AIFA, to the Armed Forces, to the payment of the debt for the cancellation of the Texcoco airport, and, finally, to electoral programs -I mean social programs- aimed at strengthening Morena’s votes next year in the federal and State elections.
The President announced a plan to help Acapulco’s recovery. Those approximately 60 billion pesos he promises will only be helpful for a few months, approximately until March or April. Actually, they are in the form of money previously allocated to Guerrero (social support for the elderly, youth, people with disabilities, etc.). Much of what is offered is part of the already tendered budget in the PEF.
Therefore, what AMLO is offering to Acapulco in the form of emergency aid is like pretending to stop and cure a massive hemorrhage with a band-aid as a definitive solution. Of course, the joke tells itself.
There is no coherent action aimed at recovering Acapulco and the surrounding municipalities, also severely affected in their public services infrastructure and electricity supply, while also counting their dead.
The figures of what it will cost to recover in Guerrero from the effects of Hurricane Otis and the time it will take to get Acapulco back on its feet vary greatly. The President’s plan is designed to last a maximum of 6 months.
The Construction Chamber estimates it will take at least five years to recover. International insurers estimate it will take at least 50 billion dollars to get Acapulco back on its feet. The 60 billion pesos offered by AMLO will only serve to cover the hole of his guilt for not having attended in time to the warnings he surely received since, as he says proudly, he is the best-informed man in Mexico. Indeed, he was informed in advance about the danger of the event, but he decided to keep the information to himself and go to sleep. And what had to happen happened.
Now, what’s next for Guerrero? A probable massive migration out of the area is anticipated, even if it is temporary. There is no food, water, or medicine. The daily survival of the people is at stake. As has happened in similar tragedies in other parts of the world, a sector of the population will decide to try their luck in other less hostile latitudes. There will surely be an important migration to the United States.
Another part of the population will have no choice but to stay and try to survive. Organized crime will play a decisive role here. All efforts to recover normality will be marked by the presence of organized crime, occupying political spaces of authority, and undermining the decision-making power of the State. The danger for this part of Guerrero is that it will become a launching pad for new drug trafficking forces toward Mexico, the United States, and Asia-Pacific.
If the Mexican State does not act severely in the face of the presence of organized crime, the reconstruction of Acapulco could become the consolidation of a true “new frontier” for drug trafficking in Mexico.
Natural tragedies have a habit of becoming political crises. The fall of Somoza began with an earthquake that shook Nicaragua. Floods can precipitate the fall of governments. The fragility of democratic systems comes to the fore when the lack of capacity for effective responses shows the ineptitude of their rulers.
Just such was the effect of the 1985 earthquake in Mexico. The federal government reacted hesitantly, even with a hint of fear, to the phenomenon and its possible consequences. It was no coincidence that three years later, in 1988, a political earthquake occurred in the presidential elections, with a questioning of the results and a society openly antagonistic to the federal government. From there to the elections that transformed Mexico in 1997 and 2000 were a complex and violent but uninterrupted change process.
AMLO and his government are responding to the natural crisis provoked by Otis with hesitations, uncertain steps, and unwillingness to assume the seriousness of the matter, as evidenced by their budgetary hesitations and plans made on the fly and without serious foundations. They are reacting to the crisis in and around Acapulco in the same way as the federal government did in 1988. Consequently, they are opening the door for the impacts of the hurricane on society and the economic environment to transform this natural storm into a political crisis.
From what we have witnessed in the past, the social and political crisis engendered by a natural crisis of this magnitude has the strength and magnitude to topple a government.
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