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Overrepresentation: A Coup d’État?

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Ricardo Pascoe Pierce

Listening to AMLO denounce a “coup d’état” against him, one falls into his trap: he accuses the opposition of preparing what he intends to do. He is actively preparing a coup d’état against the Constitution.

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With 54% of the votes, he intends to obtain 75% of the legislators in the National Congress to impose his longed-for Plan C. The opposition received 45% of the ballots, but with the rules AMLO wants to impose on the electoral bodies, it will only have 25% of the legislators. This is different from how Mexico voted. It resolved a majority and a minority, but by no means in that proportion. The Congress should reflect the real balance of forces in the country: 55% and 45%, but by no means 75% and 25%. Mexico did not vote 75% and 25%. It voted 55% and 45%.

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That is the reality of the country. Therefore, how should we interpret the intention to change the results that violate the people’s will legally? And why does AMLO believe he can impose this nefarious legacy on the electoral bodies?

The legal interpretation that grants 75% of legislators to Morena and allies is deliberately twisted. He claims that each party of his coalition “deserves” 8% more legislators. That is to say, it increases their number of legislators by 24%. However, the law only mandates the majority party, not its allies. Legally, only Morena is entitled to 8% more legislators and not the Green Party or the PT. They will receive the same plurinominal legislators as the rest of the parties. That is to say, according to their votes. The PAN, as the first minority, would receive the largest number of plurinominal legislators, and thus, they will be distributed proportionally to the rest of the parties.

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Under this principle, no party won a qualified majority in the national Congress.

Then, why is it assumed that Morena will have 75% of legislators? Because it is confident that it has managed to co-opt (read buy or blackmail) a majority of the Magistrates of the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judicial Power to vote in favor of this twisted mathematical equation, which favors the over-representation of one force over the others and is contrary to the constitutional spirit, which favors the principle of proportional balance of political forces in the Legislative Power.

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Do we have electoral bodies colonized by the Executive Branch? Is that why President López Obrador dictated the line to them since the night of the election, instructing them to approve his twisted interpretation of the law to give 75% of the Congress to his party? Will the Magistrates themselves understand that, by giving 75% of legislators to a single party, they are digging their own grave because that branch will vote to elect Ministers, Magistrates, and Judges by popular vote in a few weeks? Morena will vote for a procedure that will destroy the Judiciary in Mexico for decades and cause international distrust towards our country (e.g., Justices elected by lottery, not by knowledge).

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The Magistrates should understand two things when voting for this illegal and political aberration. One is that they misinterpret the Constitution and the electoral laws, which seek to give political and democratic stability to the country and not return to the times of a single or hegemonic party. Their obligation is to provide stability to the country and not destabilize it, giving flight to the resentments and fury of a single man.

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Two, what has been clearly warned: Morena is going for the destruction, in fact, of the Republican system of three Powers, equal and independent among themselves, which are the heart of the constitutional order that governs us. Morena has already announced it, and it has its legislative project ready. AMLO instructed that it will be voted on and approved in September before he leaves the presidency.

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Is this what Mexico is like—the ranch of the cacique? We are on time to say that Mexico is nobody’s ranch. It is a Republic guided by its Constitution, with respected laws and rules.

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The Electoral Tribunal of the Judiciary of the Federation has the legal, political, and moral obligation to reject AMLO and approve a distribution of plurinominal seats that assumes the principle of a weighted balance between forces in the Legislative Branch. That is the legal obligation of the Judiciary—not to serve anyone but Mexico.

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Not respecting its constitutional function and bowing to the voracity of the Executive Branch can effectively be interpreted as being a participant and guarantor of a coup d’état.

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