Antonio Navalón
Nobody said it would be easy. When one is part of such a concrete and concise plan in terms of its objectives – like President López Obrador has – one must remember that the degrees of maturity or acceptance of reality are not the same in all people. A charismatic leader is not inherited, only obeyed. The great challenge for Claudia Sheinbaum is not to dissolve herself into what was and continues to be the torrent of her predecessor’s words, ideas, and objectives and -why not say it? – also her prime mover. I do not doubt that it is in her spirit to fully comply with the agreements she has established with President López Obrador. But at the same time, I am aware that Dr. Sheinbaum – to whom the democratic legitimacy that accompanies her and that was primarily imposed, encouraged, supported, and directed by her campaign manager and who was the only one who campaigned for six years, that is, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, cannot be disputed – will face a significant challenge. Her real test will not be to see how far she will go or if she will be better or worse than her predecessor; her real challenge will be to see how far and when she will follow the instructions and mandates of the one who flattened her path to power.
Dr. Claudia Sheinbaum is today the most-voted leader in the history of Mexico, surpassing even the number of votes that seemed impossible to surpass. Not only did she achieve the remarkable feat of becoming the nation’s first female president, but she did so by achieving a democratic legitimacy that, in turn, gave her ample room for maneuver. But make no mistake, López Obrador is to be thanked that – for better or worse, although the election results make it clear that everything went in his favor – he has always been unequivocal and has never deceived anyone about his intentions. What remains to be seen is whether he understands the old wisdom of Jesús Reyes Heroles – when he was an enthusiastic PRI militant – that in politics, rituals mean substance. Therefore, the most crucial point is not only in the negotiation on the appointment of the cabinet -which undoubtedly exists-but also in the prioritization of objectives.
In the twilight of this administration, accounts and pending issues need to be resolved. One of them, and the one that in the last few days has been the most relevant issue, is the one surrounding the question of whether she will finish this first installment of the 4T with the Judicial Reform regardless of the costs involved or whether it will be left as the first priority of the mandate to be inaugurated next October 1. Is the next president as convinced of the commitments inherent to her appointment as with what she needs to do to make a good government?
The presentation of the first part of Claudia Sheinbaum’s cabinet was impeccable. The people she invited to be part of her government—above all suspicions—are sufficiently prepared and have the necessary credentials to fulfill their future functions. By reading the resumes of the first six appointed secretaries, Sheinbaum bestowed the prize and, above all, the value she placed on training and efficiency. She also made it clear that loyalty must be accompanied by the ability to fulfill the designs and objectives of the nation’s next president.
Everything has begun to change, and my only doubt is not whether or not the president has the right to make mistakes—since it is obvious that she does—but how the maturation cycles between the two will be and how they will work so that a policy can be implemented that does not end up mortgaging the president’s political capacity to comply with her mentor’s program.
This week, we have to see how the key secretariats still pending to be appointed will be defined and established. The appointment of the Secretary of National Defense has always been important, however, since the irruption of the 4T this position has become one of the most significant in the cabinet. Since he came to power and despite having said the contrary during the campaign that led him to occupy the National Palace, President López Obrador decided to associate his destiny and the country’s with the armed forces. The Mexican army has become a first-rate executor of political decisions – often criticized – regarding the great flagship works of the 4T and has established itself as an institution closely linked to the country’s direction.
What remains to be seen is whether the successor to the incumbent Secretary of National Defense will be proposed by the Secretary himself, the President-elect, or President López Obrador. Another key issue—although there is still time to do so—will be determining how many new resources will be granted and extracted from the country’s GDP to satisfy and comply with the demands and requirements of such a Secretary, although this is already an important issue for the election of the new Secretary.
Beyond the slogans – fortunate or unfortunate – of “hugs and not bullets”, I believe security will be an absolute priority issue in this new government. The situation and reality of the country are undeniable, and not putting this as a critical point to be solved would be a severe mistake. In this sense, and according to what has been said and interpreted, it seems that the appointment of Omar Garcia Harfuch is a fact. However, it remains to be seen if the creator of the Fourth Transformation makes his right, if not of veto then of reservation, on the possible new Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection.
Rosa Icela Rodriguez has always been very important to Dr. Sheinbaum, so much so that she appointed her as her Secretary of Government when she was Head of the Government of Mexico City. That is why it is logical that at this moment, she is being considered to occupy a key position next to the president-elect, especially in the reorganization of security and the multiple political relationships. Or, put another way, Rosa Icela will be important in relocating and reinstalling the concept and functioning of the Interior. Secretariat
In 2018, President Lopez Obrador dissolved the value of the cabinet. He and he alone made the decisions. All the decisions and – except for the Secretary of National Defense – no one in the cabinet could be important when setting the guidelines and behaviors for controlling the armed forces. With Lopez Obrador in the National Palace, he is the first and the last combatant. All the critical decisions – including this fantastic electoral campaign led and devised by him – have been made by him.
I have little doubt that President Sheinbaum’s style of government will be different from that of López Obrador. This does not mean that in so many years, she has not learned the value of having real power; it means her understanding of the need for a cabinet that is loyal, efficient, and can project Mexico for the second part of this 21st century.
Names, gestures, and reforms are essential, although the most important thing is to know the existing margin in the degree of maturity and living within the reality of both. The reality of the one who is leaving because he is going out and of the one who arrives because, even if she has a significant dependence on all the orders of the president who made her, she has everything to succeed. To achieve it, she will not only have to juggle between the affection and loyalty she owes to a man used to set the political agenda from the first hour of the day for so many years and her true desires and objectives for her mandate. And the fact is that, no matter how much she seeks to make her way, it remains to be seen what the mornings of the man who has been the primary occupant of the National Palace will be like and see what his dawns will be like when he is in La Chingada.
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