Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
Tomorrow, Xóchitl Gálvez will receive the accreditation of her nomination as national coordinator of the Frente Amplio Por México (FAM). In fact, she will be the next candidate for the Presidency of the Republic on behalf of the FAM.
The challenges Xóchitl faces are vast and complex. Let us review some of them.
To win next year’s election, she will have to broaden, deepen, and consolidate the support for her candidacy from political and social sectors that significantly exceed the boundaries of the organizations that have nominated her. She has two main challenges: to broaden the FAM and to achieve the support of important detachments of some social segments that currently support Morena.
The expansion of the FAM now involves integrating Movimiento Ciudadano (MC) or a relevant part of that party to his effort. Obviously, within MC, there is already a bitter discussion about what to do with Xóchitl’s candidacy. Grupo Jalisco is inclined to support Xóchitl’s candidacy, even if it does not necessarily imply joining the FAM organically. There are several legal ways to obtain its support to compete electorally, although the most efficient and forceful would be the full integration into the Front. It will not take long to define the scope and decisions of this process within MC.
Another potential that Xochitl has for her defense of specific social programs is the possibility of attracting political detachments disenchanted from Morena. The internal process of Morena in selecting its presidential candidate has been seriously muddied. This is due to the systematic violation of the internal rules by the contenders that they established among themselves. In addition, the atmosphere within Morena has become rarefied due to the factious, shameless, and illegal use of public funds by the candidates in publicizing each other’s faces. Additionally, new grievances are created by the obscure polls, both the mother poll and the “mirror” polls, which are obviously used only to justify López Obrador’s choice in favor of Claudia Sheinbaum.
This previously oriented process is causing significant discomfort among some contenders, especially Marcelo Ebrard. And not only from him but also from large groups of his organic supporters. There are expressions in social networks where sectors of his base clearly express that if they cannot vote for Marcelo in 2024, they prefer to vote for Xóchitl. This is in the “red circle” of morenismo.
But as important as the above is the possibility of provoking detachments among Morena’s soft voters. They can mean the victory or defeat of Xóchitl against Claudia. Those millions of citizens voted in 2018 for López Obrador’s promise to improve things and now disapprove of his management in security, economy, health, education, and corruption. Xóchitl has evolved in her discourse to defend senior citizens’ pensions and demand sufficient and quality health, medicines, and education for all. She has reiterated that full employment with well-paid salaries is the best social policy of any government.
The growing dissent of the Morenista grassroots with the failed public policies, however, has not diminished the president’s personal popularity. But nothing assures, under these conditions, that the president can transfer his popularity to the Morena candidate, especially challenged by her lack of charisma and empathy.
The 8 to 10 points that separate Xóchitl from Claudia will have to be settled in part among those soft and fluctuating voters inclined today towards Morena. The social mood in the electoral process, and on election day in June 2024, will count to define on which side the undecided and soft votes fall. Consistent work throughout her campaign will allow Xóchitl to rely on an important part of those votes. And that is precisely what López Obrador fears.
Xóchitl also has to consistently enthuse and mobilize the Mexican middle classes so that they see in their vote the privileged instrument to defend themselves against a regime that aggressively rants and acts against them. To win the election, the urban middle classes will have to turn out massively for Xóchitl Gálvez next June 2024, in precisely ten months.
To achieve the support in votes required to win over the federal government turned into an electoral apparatus turned in favor of its candidate, Xóchitl will need to have excellent, direct, simple, and understandable proposals on the grand national problems.
These are not new problems and are well known: insecurity, crisis in the health sector, deterioration of the educational and scientific sector in general at all levels, dismantling of the State’s capacity to ensure the full exercise of the population’s civil rights, lack of transparency and the fight against corruption, isolation from the world scene and loss of prestige and international respect, structural and long-term solutions to poverty, fiscal and legal reform of the internal economic order, reorientation of the relationship between the Armed Forces and the federal government.
Each proposal will provoke the wrath of the other side. This will be the case because the electoral dispute is political, between radically different conceptions of what Mexico needs to get out of the swamp it finds itself. Mexico is debating between plurality or single party, transparency or corruption and opacity, tolerance versus polarization, democracy or authoritarianism.
Xochitl’s campaign, which will be arduous and dangerous, will have an obligation to make society face itself and recognize the challenges facing the country. There will be no room for ambiguity or bargaining: the decision made in 2024 will determine whether the best of Mexico has a future or not.
[email protected]
@rpascoep
Further Reading: