Liébano Sáenz
The issue of over-representation in Mexico’s House of Representatives is multifaceted and deeply concerning. This problem has become particularly urgent following the recent presidential and congressional elections held on June 2nd, 2024. At its core, over-representation represents a grave inequity and disproportionality between the votes the electorate cast and the seats the winning party secured. This discrepancy threatens to pave the way for an undemocratic regime change, a shift that Mexican voters never anticipated nor endorsed. The fundamental principle of democratic justice dictates that the distribution of votes should directly correspond to legislative seats.
Currently, the House of Representatives is structured with 300 deputies elected by a relative majority and 200 elected through proportional representation. Two crucial constitutional constraints exist: no political force can hold more than 300 deputies, and over-representation must be at most eight percentage points. These provisions were designed to uphold the principle of constitutional stability, ensuring that no single political entity could unilaterally amend the Constitution.
However, these limits were established before the advent of the current coalition system. In this context, over-representation should apply to the coalition as a whole rather than individual parties. Parties like the PT and the Green Party subordinated to Morena, form part of the coalition. As a unified force, this coalition is constitutionally barred from altering the Constitution on its own. The framers of the Constitution intended for any amendments to be achieved through broad consensus among diverse political forces.
The present government’s pursuit of over-representation is alarming. It appears to be a deliberate strategy crafted to facilitate a regime change without the electorate’s informed consent. Despite securing only 40.8% of the vote, Morena has proposed sweeping constitutional reforms that could dismantle the core pillars of Mexico’s democracy. These reforms threaten to undermine the separation of powers, exclude political plurality in legislative bodies, and politicize the National Electoral Institute (INE). Such politicization would erode the INE’s independence and autonomy alongside that of the General Council and the Electoral Tribunal. Furthermore, the proposed reforms aim to eliminate autonomous institutions and fully militarize public security.
This is not merely an issue of electoral unfairness but a direct assault on Mexico’s democratic foundations. A literal interpretation of constitutional provisions, ignoring the intent behind them, sets a dangerous precedent. Overrepresentation in this context is not just a technicality but a calculated move towards autocracy.
This development poses significant risks for investors and stakeholders in the financial markets. The erosion of democratic institutions and guarantees could lead to increased political instability, a less predictable business environment, and potential disruptions in economic policies. The transformation of Mexico into a regime where democratic checks and balances are eroded could have far-reaching implications for governance, transparency, and the rule of law.
In conclusion, the over-representation being pursued in Mexico’s legislative process is not just a matter of disproportionate electoral outcomes; it represents a profound threat to the democratic regime itself. Both domestic and international observers must recognize this issue’s gravity and advocate for preserving democratic principles and institutions in Mexico.
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