Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
It has been fulfilled as it happens with all waiting for a date. The date of the long-awaited rally of the Pink Tide has arrived, and its purpose was more than fulfilled. Despite the constant harassment and threats from the Presidency of the Republic, the Ministries of the Interior and Education, the government of the CDMX, and the CNTE contingent that was paid to remain threatening in the Zócalo, the pressure was not enough to make the demonstrators desist in their purpose.
All the pressure was in vain. In fact, in the only hand-to-hand confrontation between teachers and protesters, the teachers had to give in to the overwhelming majority of the Pink Tide. The tidal wave of people “burst the dam,” and the protesters entered the public square where the Pink Tide literally wiped out the teachers.
Anticipating that the last two weeks will be a time of great strategic efforts for the two contenders, it is noteworthy to highlight their intentions. Everything indicates that the Morena candidate decided to dedicate a significant part of this remaining time to Mexico City, trying to fix what Morena had broken down in the cradle territory of its movement. Without Mexico City, Morena is nothing.
Rumors of disagreements between the two Morena candidates are true. Clara has been affected by her sectarianism, refusing to work with many Morenistas because they did not support her in the internal elections. However, her campaign went backward instead of advancing, and many polls already placed her as a loser in the city. Claudia is apparently dedicated to rescuing the city for Morena. But how can Claudia recover a city she herself lost? To this day, it is a question without answers.
Especially today, in a demonstration of strength, unity, and decision, the opposition showed that it could fill the Zócalo as many times as necessary (three full houses and a fourth at the Monumento a la Revolución) and do it without money. There are no paid people in the crowd, and there are no bought demonstrators. These are events of consciousness. All this shows that the social mood in Mexico City is against the Morena government. It is quite possible to conclude that the city is lost for Morena.
Then, what sense does it make for Claudia to remain campaigning in a city she will lose? Apparently none. But, at the same time, that conclusion leads to a fatality: if Claudia loses CDMX, Veracruz, Puebla, Jalisco, Nuevo León, and Guanajuato, of course, she may lose the Presidency. That is her dilemma.
On Xóchitl’s side, her strategy is to try to attract the growing number of “soft” Morenista voters (i.e., who might vote for another party if they perceive that therein lies their most significant benefit). She also wants to attract the undecided voters or “switchers” susceptible to changing their vote for another party or stop being abstentionists if she captures their imagination and most pressing needs. This explains her speech in the Zócalo calling for a plural and united Mexico without vengeance. The call goes to those who have not yet decided their vote and who, in the opinion of several analysts, is a pool of votes that can go directly to Xóchitl if she knows how to court those well-defined groups, both in need and geographic location, for their easy anti-government propensity.
Given that with the event in the Zócalo, Xóchitl can say that she has made her “national closing”, now she will be able to dedicate all her time to closings with the candidates to the governorships and the most relevant places throughout the country and, if possible, in the mayoralties of Mexico City.
This is how the last two weeks will be. These are moments of tactical and strategic decisions, and neither side wants to make a mistake. In his desperation, the President could activate drug trafficking to create disorder in an attempt to delegitimize the elections.
There will be many dangers in the last two weeks. One must be attentive to the ruling party’s dirty maneuvers to try to discredit the elections, perhaps even, some say, to annul them.
The next two weeks will be key in defining the winner and loser of the presidential election.
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