When AMLO visits Biden

Somebody in his government should enlighten the Mexican President before his trip to Washington next week and explain that the U.S. priorities with Mexico are threefold: 1) controlling the irregular flow of migrants; 2) combat organized crime, drug trafficking, and border violence; and 3) protecting U.S. businesses and interests in Mexico.

1. Migration

   Regarding the first subject, it would be helpful to explain to him that the causes for hundreds of thousands of Mexicans to emigrate, risking their lives and their families, has to do with three main reasons: First, lack of opportunities to improve their living standards through well-paid jobs given their abilities; Second, running away from endless violence and lawlessness in their communities trying to save their lives and their families, and safeguarding their modest holdings and; Third, trying to ensure a better future for their children, in a country that offers them real opportunities for education, health, safety, and general well-being. Same reasons as most Guatemalans, Salvadorans, Hondurans, Nicaraguans, Haitians, Cubans, and Venezuelans crossing Mexico in transit to the U.S. Border.

Indeed, ten days ago, the more than 20 Mexicans dead from suffocation and heat inside a trailer were escaping, the same as 2,500 every day, from the lack of opportunities and the unbearable violence and insecurity of organized crime who enjoy the presidential sympathy and protection. They were fleeing the fantasy world that only exists in his daily morning sermons. Andrés Manuel López Obrador has a mistaken view of lower-income Mexicans. He thinks they are incapable of being self-sufficient and therefore – in addition to referring to them as “pets” to be taken care of, fed, and sheltered – that the best he can do for them is to give them alms so that they can subsist. This is wrong and humiliating.

He does not realize that those who emigrated in search of opportunities -whom he now thanks for sending money to their families as those remittances support the stability of the peso in the face of the brutal fall of other sources of foreign currency- have shown that when the economic, security, health and education conditions exist, even in adverse and extremely disadvantageous conditions, they are capable of getting ahead on their own and not through alms disguised as social programs that only manage to momentarily lessen their misery and ensure that it not only persists but also spreads, as demonstrated by the deplorable results obtained by his administration in more than three years, when the number of Mexicans in extreme poverty has increased by more than ten million, increasing to 56% the percentage of the country’s population that survives in that condition.

Those who stay are his electoral base, which in exchange for alms, vote for his political movement, deceived, humiliated, subjected, and condemned to remain in that situation as long as these policies prevent any possibility of a balanced and equitable economic growth. Instead of demeaning them with handouts in exchange for their vote, he should refocus social policy towards improving the capacity, ability, and productivity of the poorest so that someday they will cease to be poor, promoting economic growth without ideological phobias, paying more attention to what other countries are doing to ensure that the future reaches them in optimal conditions, instead of repeating a childish version of the history of what happened two centuries ago, or even worse since the conquest, just to feed grudges and foster hatred between social classes.  

Instead, the only action López Obrador took regarding migration was to issue the order to deploy the army disguised as National Guard to help Trump during his campaign by detaining those he welcomed with open arms shortly before.

2. Drug trafficking and Organized Crime

The U.S. Government has a clear picture of the problem: who are the bad guys, how and where they operate, which regions are under whose control, who and where are the suppliers, how, where, and with whom they launder the proceeds, and much more. And they share this information with their counterparts south of the border, expecting it to be used to combat organized crime organizations.

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According to the U.S. North command, 35% of the country’s territory is under the control of organized crime. “Organized crime groups have fragmented and diversified their criminal activities, resorting to extortion, kidnapping, oil theft, human smuggling, sex trafficking, drug retailing, and other illicit ventures.

     But instead of using legitimate force against criminals, an obligation he assumed when he swore to obey and enforce the compliance of the constitution, the President abdicates his responsibility and lets the cartels use their illicit forces. He argues that he is very respectful of their human rights, without concern for those of the victims, and as can be seen, the criminals have a complete disregard for the human and any other rights of the population.

   This derives from a misconception of the criminals. In his youth, the guerrilla causing terror were fighting against repressive governments in most of Latin America; right or wrong, they had ideological myths and foundations for their actions. That is why he appointed, as head of the National Human Rights Commission, the sister of a guerrilla fighter that federal forces disappeared and killed after he assassinated a business leader in Monterrey. But today, the organized crime cartels have only two reasons: profit and power; their illegal, inhumane, and damaging activities have no ideologies, no principles. Only money and power to protect and enhance their dominions. That is why they engaged in a semi-covert alliance with the ruling party during the past election, where they succeeded in winning positions in local and state governments and legislatures. It follows that those financed by the criminals end up in their service.

Nothing happens when criminals form a cartel or when they chase, run after, and insult Mexican Army members. The President of Mexico justifies it and says they did not respond to the aggression because they are protecting the people. The truth is AMLO is an anarchist disguised as a peaceful Franciscan monk. By refusing to use the legitimate use of force, which is essential to have a functional State, he has renounced the most important responsibility a State has towards its inhabitants. A State that does not protect is a failed State.

3. USMCA and the rule of law.

Geographically, Mexico is in a region where three countries share a part of the planet, generating 28% of the world economy with only 6% of the total population. However, despite the integration of our economies and cultures, the disparity in the level of education between the two of them and Mexico is enormous. The logical consequence is that while in Canada and the United States, the average annual per capita income is $44,500 and $59,288, in Mexico, it is $9,946 and falling since this administration began.

 When NAFTA came into effect 28 years ago, the Mexican economy benefited more than the other two countries and had the additional benefit of a transfer of technology and knowledge that allowed a considerable number of Mexicans to join the productive activity and improve their standard of living.

Despite the golden opportunity presented by the trade war between the U.S. and China, pushing American manufacturers to move production to their southern neighbor, AMLO’s hostile attitude to foreign companies, his authoritarian tendencies, and his erratic decision-making, along with the inability of the government monopolies to provide the essential infrastructure and services such as gas and electricity, make nearshoring difficult if not impossible.  

The Mexican government does not provide legal certainty for Mexicans, much less for foreign investment to promote productive chains and thus create jobs. Decisions that are both arbitrary and illegal end up in arbitration under USMCA. This attitude encourages businesses to seek more predictable and suitable places for their investments, as was recently pointed out by a bipartisan group of U.S. Senators in a letter to President Biden.

To read the whole document, the controls for turning pages and zooming in or out are at the bottom left corner above.

U.S. Companies do well in considering the experience of the Spanish energy company that owns and operates a group of electricity generating plants, accused of corruption without evidence. It had announced a 5 Billion investment in renewable energy projects during this administration. Instead, it has abandoned most of its assets and is fighting AMLO’s government in court.

AMLO’s complete disregard for the rule of law became immortalized by a phrase during his endless daily press conferences “mañaneras“. When he learned that the Supreme Court had ruled against an unlawful decree that he was trying to enforce, he stated: “don’t come to me with that tale that the law is the law”.

Conclusion.

His lack of concern for the rule of law helps understand his contradictory attitude of demanding respect for sovereignty when it regards the opinion of a foreigner about Mexico or his proteges (Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua), contrasting with his disregard for that of the U.S., as shown by his ridiculous demand of disassembling the statue of liberty and returned to France because of the extradition and potential conviction of Julian Assange.

Finally, somebody should let him know that Joseph Biden is President of the United States of America, and as such, he has to see for the interest of its citizens. That he needs a majority in Congress to be effective and that the November elections will force him to make decisions regarding immigration and drug trafficking. Biden can’t rely on the promise that the “sowing life” program of poor people planting trees will solve the problems, nor will the “youth building the future” projects. Perhaps they could in an imaginary world or in an alternate reality that works with other data.  

SEPGRA Political Analysis Group.