Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
López Obrador has been caught in the maze of his bravado in favor of three dictatorships and against the United States. Whatever he decides to do about the Summit of the Americas-attend or not-he is going to look bad to everyone. And Mexico will be left with its international reputation devastated and its credibility in doubt.
He has not responded to the invitation he received to attend the Summit, citing a trifle: “I don’t understand the date they sent me the invitation,” he has said, to avoid deciding what to do on the spot. By the time this article is published, AMLO will possibly have already announced his decision. Be that as it may, the political trouble he has gotten Mexico into will persist and will last for a long time.
From their lair at the Bolivarian forum in Havana, Maduro, Ortega, Díaz Canel, and Luis Arce of Bolivia thanked López Obrador for his support to their countries and their governments. Maduro exalted the Mexican in heroic terms: he thanked López Obrador for his “firm and courageous voice” in defending his country’s inclusion, together with Cuba and Nicaragua, in the Summit of the Americas organized by President Biden’s administration. He explained the reason for the meeting in Havana: “We have convened to give the debate, to set a very clear position on the meeting that is being convened in Los Angeles and, well, a firm, forceful, absolute rejection of the imperial vision that seeks to exclude the peoples of the Americas”.
The Bolivian President, who joined the Summit boycott in solidarity with López Obrador, said: “if they want to have a meeting of friends, let them do it, but they cannot call it the Summit of the Americas”.
The leaders of Cuba and Nicaragua expressed similar sentiments.
Other countries that suggested they might not attend the Summit have finally decided to go to Los Angeles, including Peru, Chile, Argentina, Brazil, and Honduras. The Guatemalan president’s decision not to attend is no longer known, as he has kept a discreet silence. Belize is in doubt. From the Caribbean and Caricom, only the island of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, out of the 14 member countries, is reluctant to attend.
That is to say, at this moment, Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Bolivia have decided not to attend the Summit. López Obrador, the boycott’s promoter, has remained silent.
Lopez Obrador, the huckster, has kept quiet because he is caught in a tightrope walk. If he attends the Summit, he will look like a liar before his people and before the countries and governments that he encouraged to participate in the boycott. He would cease to be that “brave” guy praised by Maduro precisely because he is the author of the boycott. It is a situation of his own making.
But if he does not attend, he will end the functional relationship and dialogue with Washington that has existed for many years, which was enhanced by the signing of the NAFTA-USMCA. It will end the good graces of the U.S. Congress and could open a period of prolonged conflict, which could turn into a low-intensity war between the U.S. and Mexico. It cannot be forgotten that 12 million Mexicans live and work in the neighboring country and that the economy of millions of Mexican families on this side of the border depends on remittances. It is feasible that the U.S. Congress could decide, in retaliation, to restrict the sending of Mexican remittances to their families, as the U.S. does with Cubans who want to send remittances to their families and are prohibited by U.S. law.
The United States is Mexico’s leading economic partner through which 80% of our productive activity passes. In contrast, our economic relations with Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Bolivia as a whole are, for practical purposes, non-existent.
AMLO’s decision will move between his radical, sovereigntist, and anti-Yankee ideological stance against the reality of the Mexican economy, which is struggling to get out of the swamp of the Covid pandemic, so the political rupture with its productivity engine will provoke a situation of social instability in Mexico.
Moreover, there is another ingredient in this murky affair. There is a conviction in U.S. Democratic circles that López Obrador is playing for Trump’s team. There is plenty of data to incite speculation. Mainly his refusal to concede Biden’s victory, alleging legalities, when he recognized Luis Arce of Bolivia the very night of the event. As if he was waiting to see if Trump would articulate his coup d’état.
Moreover, internationally, the Mexican president is seen as one who bows to Trump, seeking to favor him in his possible re-election bid, even though the latter offends him publicly. He is also known as a leader who refuses to impose sanctions on Russia that invaded an independent country, killing thousands of Ukrainian citizens. At the same time, the dark shadow of an alliance between López Obrador and drug trafficking is seen as a very serious national and international security problem.
Lopez Obrador is considered by many in the United States and in democratic societies worldwide as a would-be dictator, fascinated by left and right-wing populists alike. He is not considered a “leftist”, but a populist only interested in defending and prolonging his presidency of Mexico. He is seen as a dangerous character because he is in love with himself.
Today Lopez Obrador is maneuvering to get along with both sides of the equation. On Biden’s side, he is negotiating concessions to U.S. companies on energy matters to please Washington, making deals with big U.S. capital that would make even the most dedicated Morenista militant blush. Ambassador Salazar’s frequent visits have to do with this negotiation. In exchange for these concessions, he seeks Washington’s “permission” not to attend the Summit so as not to disappoint the Cubans, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans, and Bolivians, who esteem him as “brave in the face of the empire”.
The problem with this way out, being so deceitful and having so little time to put it together, is that all the actors and governments involved will know what really happened. And they will discover in López Obrador a deceitful, lying, and untrustworthy person.
López Obrador intends to be, simultaneously, a sell-out and a sovereigntist. The question is: will the deception he is trying to pull work, or will he simply add to our national and international discredit?
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