Ángel Jaramillo Torres
There are three strategic points where the global war is unfolding. First is the theater in Eurasia, where a conflict is taking place that could fundamentally change European history. The Russian armed forces sent by Vladimir Putin to Ukraine to annex that country are in a stalemate. Second, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has metamorphosed into a war between Israel and Iran. The former has dealt a crushing blow to Hezbollah, which is an Islamic terrorist group controlled by Tehran. For their part, Shiite clerics in Iran have attacked the Jewish state a couple of times with missiles.
The third center of conflict is in the Asia-Pacific region. There, Xi Jinping’s regime does not cease its military harassment of Taiwan. Beijing recently deployed part of its air force inside a space near the island of Formosa as part of a military exercise, probably in response to President Lai Ching-Te’s statements that Taiwan is a sovereign country.
The U.S. government was quick to act but was not sufficiently critical of the Chinese government’s decision and called for restraint on both sides.
At least three variables would lead China to intervene in Taiwan—first, the evolution of the conflict in Eurasia. If Xi Jinping registers that the West decides to leave Ukraine to its fate, he will probably read such a resignation as an indication that neither the United States nor Europe will have the appetite to stop a Chinese military intervention in Taiwan. Second, a Trump win in November could force the U.S. government to scale back its naval presence in the Asia-Pacific. Undoubtedly, the Chinese premier will assess the first few months in power of the Trump administration before launching a campaign against Taiwan.
Third, socioeconomic developments within China may push the government in Beijing into an imperial adventure as a way to divert attention from the domestic situation. A major crisis in China is not entirely impossible. Even geopolitician Peter Zeihan predicts that she will disappear in ten years due to her demographic problems, the coming great real estate crisis, and the fact that the former rationalist mandarins of the Communist Party have given way to irrational one-person power.
That said, a Chinese incursion into Taiwan is not easy. First, Taiwan is ranked 24th in the world in terms of military might. Moreover, no intelligence service in the world knows China’s logistical and military weaknesses like Taiwan. If an amphibious attack by China could become a nightmare for Beijing, an air deployment with missile launches would have a devastating impact on the international community. Moreover, its military impact would be minimal.
On the other hand, even if Washington does not react as expected, Japan, South Korea, and other regional powers such as Australia and New Zealand will most likely respond immediately. For now, the world’s countries would do well to send the message that Taiwan’s security must be maintained at all costs.
*Angel Jaramillo Torres is an internationalist and political scientist.He is currently a member of the SNI, level 1, and an associate of the Mexican Council on International Affairs (COMEXI).
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