Antonio Navalón
Vladimir Putin began to lose the war in Ukraine when he ordered his troops to invade something that he already controlled and invaded and that it was only a matter of time to execute. The pressure exerted on the Kyiv government and Ukraine is a pressure that, as has been repeated many times these days, has a direct precedent in Adolf Hitler’s way of solving what was the protection of the Germans or simply the need for space – which was what stifled the Third Reich – and which entirely coincides with Putin’s ultimate goal and reason for living. The Russian President was born when his Russia was an empire and wants to die in an imperial Russia. Joseph Stalin built the empire Putin was born into after the Soviet victory over the Nazis. The empire that Vladimir Putin wants to donate to the Russians, which he needs to remain a determining factor of pressure and strength in today’s world in the face of the hegemony of China and the United States, is an empire based above all on the failure of Western democratic models.
Through cyber-attacks, the management of Russian mafias, and the distribution and control of energies, Putin has been feeding Western and democratic decadence for years. However, his best success was the arrival of Donald Trump and the sort of mind control he exerted on the forty-fifth President of the United States. Until the day the Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine, the battle, the politics, and the propaganda strategy was being won by Vladimir Putin. No one believed that there was the slightest possibility of delaying for even twenty-four hours, with the troops and the Ukrainian people’s blood, the storming of the well-trained and well-prepared Russian forces. Moreover, despite the comings and goings of Western leaders, there was the legacy left to us by Trump’s tenure with his resignation to remain the leader of the free world and with the attacks on American alliances. Furthermore, none of this would have been possible without the internal and systemic crisis that the United States is going through. This situation has caused the country to split and has already wreaked significant havoc.
The reality is that the Western world lacked a leader, and Putin, who knows us so well and exploits our weaknesses, took advantage of the moment and the circumstance we were in. A case in which Trump had already put a price on NATO membership and, above all, on a country to have the privilege of being an ally of the United States of America. Biden is a surprise. Therefore, it is understandable how difficult it has been for him to implement his Democratic political program even though he has a majority in Congress. The role of the current US President was to act as the leader of the free world in one of the most profound crises of recent times. However, on the day when Putin’s tanks rolled into Ukraine and what already seemed like a bad joke was confirmed – that not only were Americans not winning wars, but they were also failing in their intelligence work – the world was able to witness, once again, the crisis of leadership that the West is going through. If one adds to the whole situation Europe’s energy dependence on Russia to the particular reasons of countries like Germany or France, one could understand why they are taking a stand on the conflict.
Up until the moment the first bullet from a Russian weapon was fired, Putin was winning the battle. However, everything changed as soon as he moved from threat to action. With NATO becoming less and less active, with the allies divided, and with a crisis that has more significant repercussions every day, Putin had everything to gain. Everything changed when last February 23 Putin ordered his troops not to respect any of the areas he had previously pledged not to attack and limit their military engagement to protecting the Donbas area and the two newly recognized pro-independence republics, Lugansk and Donetsk. From that day on, we began to test – Putin’s imperialist intention or to what extent diplomacy is effective – things that we did not need to test before.
The best thing about deterrent weapons is that no one really knows whether the propaganda of their destructive power is accurate or inaccurate. It is well known that a weapon loses fifty percent of its effectiveness once it is used. The worst thing that can be done to an Army so overwhelmingly superior and so tough – as can be proven by its history and according to the official propaganda of the regime – is that a small Army and civilians with Kalashnikovs, which they do not even know how to use, stand up to them and keep them for days so close to their borders and homes, but so far from victory. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian President is gaining time and relevance in a time when everything is TV series or exclamations in the networks. Having a hero of flesh and blood to stand up for his people with his blood becomes a symbol that, on the one hand, gives the world hope. And on the other hand, it helps to understand the trickiness of the crisis unleashed by Putin. A crisis that is a fundamental step for the reconstruction and resurgence of the Russian empire.
Without wishing to engage in any kind of futurism – since mathematics and military logic says that sooner rather than later, the Russian army can crush the Ukrainians – the cost of the Russian adventure in invading Ukraine is a factor that I doubt very much that the very forward-thinking and intelligent Putin would have computed intelligently. If things continue as they are and if negotiations fail, Ukraine will eventually fall. In the meantime, the world is no longer just worse and more insecure, but the consequences are getting more severe. Whether we want to or not, we have entered an uncontrollable situation where we do not know what new factors may trigger military action or when the case may get entirely out of control. And this can be exemplified by what the Ukrainian President said when he said that he did not need a plane to take him out of his country; what he needed was ammunition.
The problem is that Putin, not satisfied with what has been done in Ukraine, has continued his escalation and has allowed himself the luxury of also threatening Finland and Sweden. Finland was the only country that held off and defeated Joseph Stalin’s troops before World War II, and the Soviet Union was never able to occupy Finnish lands.
NATO, the United States, and the European Union put bigger and bigger bets on the table. Meanwhile, the other masters of the world – the Chinese – are in a situation where they do not applaud it but have also chosen not to condemn the Russian action.
The fact that China and India – which together account for about a third of the world’s population – abstained from condemning the Ukrainian invasion in the UN Security Council is very revealing. It gives an insight into where the world is heading.
We are living in a situation where the internal costs – given the financial, economic blockade imposed on Russia by the West – plus the levels of internal discontent on the one hand forces Putin to seek a quick and resounding victory. And on the other hand, it shows wear and tear in front of the world and consequences in the new economic reality that will make his people suffer even more. Putin began to lose the war the day he forgot the first principle of any political or military deterrent: fear. And once he ordered his tanks to crush whatever they come across in Ukraine, what he achieved in the first place was that fear disappeared from the Ukrainian people. A people who are dying and shedding their blood for their country and freedom. But, secondly, Putin is marking a path in which naturally, if a situation of agreed pacification is not found – and at this point, this option is very difficult – it is inevitable that at some point, someone will get out of control. We will go from firing missiles at apartment buildings to the capacity and effectiveness of weapons of mass destruction.
When Vladimir Putin exhibits the same arguments that Adolf Hitler showed in the Sudeten Crisis and later in the invasion of Poland, he is producing a phenomenon of collective cynicism as he knows the difference very well. Neither the Ukrainian regime is Nazi, nor the poor pro-Russian inhabitants of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions are oppressed. The problem is that Ukraine facilitates the real Russian dream, which lies in the desire and ambition to be an empire.
We are in danger. We know that, and we all are, including the Mexican government. As the hours go by, the tensions and the costs – in this case, those that the Russians have – are increasing. There will come the point where they will be so great that what began as a geopolitical and diplomatic victory is becoming more evident by the day, a defeat.
