Antonio Navalón
These are not just turbulent times but a moment of profound significance in the U.S.-Mexico relationship. The events of last Thursday, whether viewed as a turning point, a closure, or a setback, herald a new era. To grasp the full impact of the U.S. government’s intervention, one must recall the 1985 murder of Kiki Camarena, a stark reminder of its determination to bring justice to its most wanted.
Ismael El Mayo Zambada is much more than the co-founder of the Sinaloa Cartel. He is a man of moderate manners, discreet and, although the U.S. government is claiming $14 billion from him, he is someone with a different demeanor than the one generally identified with someone who is part of the rumble and the senseless handling of the wealth obtained by the drug empire.
The Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco Cartel – New Generation are the most important in Mexico and much of the Americas. Having had characters like its other co-founder, El Chapo Guzman, who complete not only the legend but the milestones of the fight against drug trafficking around the world, the Sinaloa Cartel is one of the organized crime groups that have caused the most headaches – if not the most – to both the Mexican and US governments. That is why El Chapo is in a maximum-security federal prison in Colorado and has no right to visits or phone calls from friends, family, or even his lawyers.
El Mayo Zambada was like a catalyst within the confines of the cartel. His capture – which by all accounts was an ambush – leaves many enigmas in the air. If the United States kidnapped him against his will without telling the Mexican government, it was a wrong move. If, as is also rumored, El Mayo Zambada voluntarily surrendered to the U.S. government without guaranteeing his defense, it was worse. This event could have significant implications for Mexico’s political, social, and economic conditions, and the Mexican government should take note of what is happening.
In any case, this is an event of such relevance that it will affect not only the bilateral relationship but also the country’s internal peace. What does it mean that, as it has happened on other occasions -although never of this dimension- the communication between the United States and Mexico governments could allow a situation like this? Either because of the possible kidnapping of some Mexican citizens or because an agreement has been reached and it is not a kidnapping but simply a surrender to, after a negotiation, have a clearer picture from a legal point of view. The Mexican government should take note of what is happening, mainly because from here on -and remembering other experiences such as the detention of the former Secretary of National Defense of Enrique Peña Nieto, Salvador Cienfuegos, during the administration of Donald Trump- this situation may end up being like a sword of Damocles that conditions, on the one hand, the action of the new president of Mexico. On the other hand, it may serve to sow concern about what may happen to those responsible for the current situation.
Moving on to another topic, Joe Biden’s farewell speech delivered from the Oval Office last Wednesday at 8 p.m. US Eastern Time represents not just what he is but also what defines an era that has passed in the American nation. We find ourselves amid a situation in which polarization, confrontation, rift, and internal crisis in the United States are the elements that mark not only this campaign but the behavior and political performance of a society that does not end up finding its course or identity.
At this point, I am surprised that Donald Trump’s campaign strategists have yet to realize that with Joe Biden’s farewell, their model for the campaign has ended. The arrival of Kamala Harris changed the situation so much that anything can happen from here. In her first days of a kind of pre-campaign -since, although it seems that it is only a matter of time, it must be remembered that formally, she has not yet been elected as the Democratic Party’s candidate for the Presidency- the current Vice President of the United States has shown how many people are willing to donate money so that Trump does not reach the White House. Beyond her fantastic fundraising ability, what is striking is that it is money that taxpayers were willing to give to the cause, but they did not do so while Joe Biden was the candidate.
Kamala Harris could become the answer for those who failed to feel represented by either Trump or Biden. However, at this point, it is challenging to predict what the effect of Harris’s entrance into the presidential race will be. It will be interesting to see what impact her arrival has, for example, on the female electorate or those groups that look favorably at what the first woman in U.S. history to achieve the vice presidency represents. It is too early to know what effect she will have, for example, on the youth. Nor do we know what portion of whites – whether or not they belong to the Rust Belt, to which Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance also belongs – may feel represented by the offer that Kamala Harris represents. Her entrance into the race could potentially shift the dynamics of the election and influence various voter groups.
Today, in most of the world – mainly in the Western world – people have the freedom to be whatever we want to be. The conquest of freedoms and rights has been one of the outstanding achievements of this generation. After movements and phenomena as shocking as Me Too, feminism and the struggle of women to be respected, valued, and protected are elements that are marking and will be an essential part of the development of societies. The Kamala Harris option could be the answer to the desire to impose this path in the United States and achieve something unprecedented and historic, which would be to become the first woman to occupy the Oval Office.
If Harris were to become the ruler of what is left of the American empire, it should be remembered that she is a very different ethnic representative than, for example, Barack Obama. Kamala Harris’ father is Jamaican, while her mother is of Indian nationality. The current U.S. vice president has no identification with the life and wounds so profoundly marked in the soul and history of African Americans. Nor does she identify with Asians since she represents and is within a part of the result of the ethnic mix that allows her to have, if not the best of all worlds, then circumstances in which, at least in principle, she did not inherit the burdens of hatred or social hindrance that other representatives of ethnic minorities have.
Let us not fool ourselves. As happened with Barack Hussein Obama, someone somewhere in the structure of his party or of what is left—which is a lot—of the American deep state will already be prepared who will be the main companions in case of a Democratic electoral victory. A victory that, if it were to happen, would be almost as surprising as Donald Trump’s electoral victory in 2016.
The world is in chaos. We are living in a situation that has no parallel. In the United States, the main problem is that it is necessary to make politics and return to social prominence so that the longest-lived democracy in history does not forget who it is. That it remembers the legacy of the Founding Fathers. This is a country that, up to this point, has always done what it has wanted or proposed to do based on unity. Ever since Abraham Lincoln’s famous speech about how it is impossible to succeed with a house divided, the most significant American problem has always been the breakdown of balances or civil wars.
Can Kamala Harris win the election and represent the end of this polarization? Hopefully. The experiment of having a color note in American presidential history did not calm the waters. On the contrary, I am convinced that Trump would never have come to power had he not been preceded by Obama.
The day the Rust Belt rejected having a president like Hillary Clinton, in my opinion, did so because, after the exotic ride of having had an African-American in the Oval Office, it was rejected – at least for what was left and for the importance of the electoral colleges in the states that gave Donald Trump power – that what we were seeing now was the beginning of the rule of the power families. Or, put another way, as Benjamin Franklin once pronounced – and Joe Biden recalled in his speech last week – America is a republic, as long as it can be maintained as such.
The circumstances are quite unlike any other. At no other time in U.S. history has internal strife been as intense as it is now. Therefore, the consequence of producing a change in the electoral trend must be understood on the basis of the government’s chaos. This chaos, as already happened in 2016, may result in Kamala Harris becoming the next president of the United States.
We are in a situation where President Lopez Obrador will have to live with the stigma that they were taken and it was an invasion. It is not the first time this has happened, but it happened in the middle of a moment when the U.S. electoral campaign and the changes produced are happening at such a speed that it is dizzying.
The capture of El Mayo Zambada and Chapo Guzman’s son significantly affects the electoral landscape in the United States, as well as having repercussions in our country, even though the Mexican government has denied any involvement in the capture. It should be noted that it is much easier for El Mayo to get on the same page with Kamala Harris or President Biden than with Donald Trump and his people. In any case, they are already in Texas, and what happens from here on has to be told either from the absolute violation of the relationship by the kidnapping or from the collaboration and participation, becoming protected witnesses for both kidnapped. We will see what happens from here.
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