Antonio Navalón
Today, with so much technology, dependence, and people so little accustomed to suffering and with so little pride in themselves, what awaits us is that the strongest can strike. And that it will do so without even taking out weapons, but simply threatening us and grabbing us by the stomach so that either in the form of yuan, cryptocurrencies, or under the new economic and social realities, they will turn us into enslaved people they need us to be.
The dead of Ukraine, including the Russians who have lost their lives in this still-simmering conflict, are still wondering why they are dead. From the point of view of valuation and functioning as democratic systems, Russia and Ukraine are tied. According to The Economist, Russia is classified as an authoritarian regime and Ukraine as a hybrid regime; not sure what this refers to. This survey measures and takes into consideration five fundamental categories – within which, although they are not categorized as holding the same type of regime, both the Russian and Ukrainian systems are similar – which are: electoral processes and pluralism; government functioning; political participation; political culture and civil liberties. The index also includes countries that are members and participants of both the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, also known as NATO. Surprisingly, many of these countries are classified as flawed democracies, and only a few countries enjoy full democracies.
The agreement being negotiated to end the war has a big loser: Putin and Russia. However, there are also other losers from this conflict. The Russian President failed in his attempt to break the national spirit and resistance on the Ukrainian side. Neither the thousands of soldiers nor the tanks nor all the Russian technology and military capabilities – which were clearly superior to the Ukrainian ones – were able to win. In this war, the West also lost because, make no mistake, neither NATO nor the attempts by the President of the United States to have another Cold War have been as successful as expected.
Starting from the premise that Europe cannot survive without Russia’s energy resources, this conflict did not have much room for negotiation or for the interposition of interests. One of the overriding factors in this dispute is the guarantee and necessity of keeping the homes of European societies and the functioning of their industries warm. Considering this, the possibility of political cohesion to face the Russian challenge simply vanished.
Putin miscalculated neither the desire for independence nor the bravery of the Ukrainian people. He calculated very well the comfort needs of the West – especially the most influential countries in Europe – and the absolutely unquestionable fact that Europe; the Europe we know; the Europe that dominates the European Union and NATO, cannot live without Russian gas.
The United States has to be very careful since it cannot embark – other than at home or out of necessity – on another war after so many lost wars. Considering the accumulation of internal shattering being experienced on U.S. soil, the country with the Stars and Stripes only can embark on a conflict that it is either sure to emerge victoriously or at least has the full backing of its allies. However, with fragmented allies and – in the end – in the hands of their enemies, it was complicated to embark on a war adventure with NATO and with a series of countries that would not follow the battle until the triumph was achieved. A victory also intrinsically consists in defense of values. But what values were they defending, democracy, the inalienable right of peoples not to be crushed with savage invasions that kill us? What were they seeking to preserve?
At the end of the day, Putin is a loser. Europe has lost. NATO has also been defeated. And Joseph Biden – who I must admit from the beginning had a ruthless and impeccable policy in the face of the Russian danger – cannot win either as reality simply weighs too heavily.
Just as in the First World War, the end could be written and reflected by Ernest Hemingway in his novel “A Farewell to Arms”, this current situation is in many ways similar to the Munich meetings, with Chamberlain’s parade or the guarantee that the Sudetenland would be incorporated into Germany to protect the Germans in the area. Considering this and in a scenario in which a country like Turkey is the guarantor of freedom and democratic functioning of another country like Ukraine, this context is very similar to what Hemingway reflected in his novel published in 1929.
Whichever way you look at it, there is only one winner in this situation: China. With a GDP per capita of more than ten thousand dollars, the overwhelming numerology gives a victory that is also based on the solvency and personality of the rulers when it comes to dictating their policies. If its inhabitants are added up, the world cataloged as free today has a significantly smaller composition than countries such as China, India, or Russia. These three countries alone have a population of almost three billion inhabitants, representing more than a quarter of the world’s population. Moreover, these three countries are characterized by the same thing: being formal democracies and having an absence of freedoms. In these territories, it is the state’s hegemony over the individual.
Ukraine will remain formally free, albeit without teeth and weapons. But it is the only participant in this war that will have something to show with pride, which is how it defended its
inhabitants in the face of Russian brutality. The Russians will have to show that either next time they get their hands on nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles from the start or – by the looks of it – if they try to occupy a country that has pride in itself and a conscience, they will fail and die as Putin’s troops have been killed.
In this case, that farewell to arms translates into a farewell to the ballot box. The 1945 triumph against the totalitarian system – which was not the only one in that battle – of Adolf Hitler and his friends is over. At that time, Joseph Stalin’s totalitarian system had also triumphed. Today, with so much technology, dependence, and people so little accustomed to suffering and with so little pride in themselves, what awaits us is that the strongest can strike. And that it will do so without even taking out weapons, but simply threatening us and grabbing us by the stomach so that either in the form of yuan, cryptocurrencies, or under the new economic and social realities, they will turn us into enslaved people they need us to be.
There is no end to the Ukrainian war. In fact, it will never end. And the truth is that – even if both countries, Russia and Ukraine, had similar democratic structures – it is necessary to emphasize that it lost history, although Ukraine won the war.
In the end, Germany and the European Union that comes out of all this is what it is: countries that are weak because of their lack of values, but, above all, because of their severe dependence on Russian gas. They are countries that do not exist without Russian calories and energy. As for the United States, its internal crisis is deepening with each passing day. Values have been blown up, and now – I repeat – after so many internal and external failures – the Americans can maintain testimonial policies and condemn invasions such as the one in Ukraine. However, today, there is no way that the United States can gamble its status as a country by going into a war that has no guarantee of winning. And the truth is that the heart of the Americans can no longer admit any more defeats.
