Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
The closing of the six-year term has ushered in a period of turbulence, shrouded in uncertainty, confusion, and vile abuse. The growing presence of drug trafficking across the national territory and signs of economic deterioration cast a shadow of doubt on Morena’s electoral victory and its legitimacy. Instead of a state of euphoria, the government and its party find themselves in an increasingly fragile situation, devoid of a clear path to consensus. This landscape of uncertainty, rather than offering solutions and relief, is rife with ghosts, contradictions, apparent lies, and confusion, leaving the audience with more questions than answers about the management of the government, both outgoing and incoming.
Which public affairs are corroded with ghosts, contradictions, and lies?
AMLO wants to erase the effect of the gigantic fraud and corruption of SEGALMEX and cover up the perpetrators with the phrase: “I’ll take the stain,” as if he had nothing to do with it. The Electoral Tribunal saves him from being an electoral criminal, affirming that he did nothing irregular in the campaign and never violated the law. He delivers a letter to the relatives of the disappeared from Ayotzinapa with an “it was not the Army…I know for a fact” to bury the issue forever. His children present a letter in which they say, “It wasn’t us,” to avoid being prosecuted for corruption. He affirms that Claudia will do what “his program” dictates and appoint whoever he tells her to. He assures his party’s qualified majority in Congress and demands that Plan C be voted on in September. It is his legacy to future generations.
All these issues, plus the new ones that accumulate between now and September 30, are the subject of doubts, questions, and contradictions about the outgoing government and affect the incoming one.
What are the new issues on the board of conflicts and contradictions? We can mention at least three: Mayo Zambada, Elon Musk, and Kamala Harris. Each of these figures could potentially be a game-changer for the outgoing and incoming governments, sparking a wave of concern and attention among the audience.
The Zambada case has sent shockwaves through the Morena political system. The prospect of Zambada’s potential confessions about the collaboration of some Morena governors, the federal government, and the cartel he leads has left them trembling. They are acutely aware that the information Zambada possesses could lead to the downfall of entire governments, a revelation that should leave the audience feeling apprehensive and alert.
They were so nervous in the morning that, wanting to provide information about the case to cover up their ignorance, they gave wrong information about the plane, the pilot’s identity, and the names of the officials at the immigration checkpoint in Hermosillo. They were livid with fear and anger. They were afraid of what Zambrana might reveal about them, starting with the President, and angry because the U.S. security agencies saw their faces.
The worst way to end a term in office is to find out who your real enemies are and that they are going to remain in power well beyond your own term. This suddenly creates a feeling of great impotence and portends bad times ahead, with indictments, possible prosecutions, and even jail time.
For all that, Zambada is terrible news for this government, and its lousy mood is fully justified.
The Elon Musk case is also a bird of ill omen. The announcement of the withdrawal of the investment planned for Tesla in Mexico comes at a coldly calculated moment. Perhaps he had already considered withdrawing the investment for the company’s own reasons, but the announcement was put to political use. It demonstrates that if things in Mexico do not move in the right direction, for example, the reform of the Judiciary, investments in the country can go elsewhere. This case serves as a stark reminder of the potential economic consequences of a deteriorating rule of law in Mexico, and the importance of maintaining a business-friendly environment to attract and retain foreign investments.
The message is for those who have to listen to it when the destruction of the Judiciary is accelerating. If those who promote this reform in Mexico believe that international investors are unaware of the disaster that the judiciary reform has meant for the rule of law in Bolivia, then they are more ignorant than necessary. It is time to restrain the most extreme reform impulses and think about the country long-term.
Elon Musk showed that it is perfectly possible to withdraw funds and investments from Mexico in drips and drabs or en masse in an instant or over periods. And make no doubt about it: he showed that door to investors who now have reservations about the convenience of investing in Mexico or contemplate withdrawing their funds in the eventualities of a severely deteriorated rule of law.
We do not know Kamala Harris as we do Trump. While we know how Trump would relate to Mexico, we have yet to learn about Kamala. Especially after this display of toughness that Biden has just given us, it is safe to assume that the relationship will be a tug-of-war in both cases. Zambada’s arrest, however it happened, sets a new bar for the bilateral relationship. It comes at a time when thoughts of re-election no longer constrain Biden. He has a freedom he didn’t have before. He used his new freedom to order an operation of this magnitude in Mexico, essentially deceiving the Mexican government. Thus, he is imposing a new measuring stick on Trump and Kamala Harris if she wins the presidency about Mexico. In her logic, it is okay to ignore national laws if, in her judgment, Mexico does not react to existing circumstances that seriously affect relations between the two nations, such as drug trafficking and the lack of respect for the rules of the CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC. This could significantly alter the dynamics of the US-Mexico relationship, particularly in the context of drug trafficking and trade agreements.
Kamala Harris is a question mark for many, and rightly so. She was not in the campaign plans until two weeks ago. Suddenly, she is the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate and may have to be dealt with. Claudia and Kamala. It will be a complex challenge because they are two firm and intelligent women. But one is more powerful than the other. And Kamala, as she advertises in her electoral publicity, is the Prosecutor who pursues anyone who dares to break the laws. It will be an unequal relationship, even if they say it is one of equals. And Biden has just introduced a new factor, and a new yardstick, of harshness by allowing this operation to be carried out on national territory. On the other hand, Claudia is tied, hand and foot, to Lopez Obrador’s program.
The closing of Lopez Obrador’s six-year term is turning into a nightmare full of nooks and crannies, shadows, and contradictions, which are causing the beginning of the next six-year term to reflect great uncertainty, recessive tendencies in the economic field and dubious political legitimacy-unrest, in other words, a nightmare of uncertainty, recessive tendencies in the economic field and dubious political legitimacy. In other words, uneasiness.
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