Luis Rubio
It is impossible not to perceive the paradox that characterizes the government and Mexico today. On the one hand, we have a government that seeks (and requires?) the support and unity of the population in the face of a great challenge from abroad. On the other hand, there is a party and government that was born, grew up, and lived off division, polarization, and the systematic denigration of everything that is not them. If one adds to that the set of laws, constitutional amendments, destruction of key institutions, and the growing exclusive monopoly of power, one can only ask: How, in this context, can one expect national unity or development?
The scene recalls the lapidary phrase with which Barbara Tuchman begins her famous book The March of Folly: “A phenomenon noticeable throughout history regardless of place or period is the pursuit by governments of policies contrary to their own interests.” The book analyzes the glaring errors of one government after another, from Troy to Vietnam, where the common denominator is the inability to develop policies suitable for the circumstances. Driven by ideology, prejudice, misinformation, or any other bias, these governments become unable to understand their circumstances, leading them to make aberrant mistakes that undermine their objectives and interests. Thus, Tuchman concludes, “If pursuing disadvantage after the disadvantage has become obvious is irrational, then rejection of reason is the prime characteristic of folly.”
There is not the slightest doubt that Trump represents a monumental challenge that the President has skillfully handled. However, that does not excuse the enormous complications the government and its party, especially its predecessor, have incurred. All of them are self-inflicted and limit the government’s capacity for action both on the economic and political levels.
On the economic side, the capacity for growth is limited by the fiscal follies committed in the last presidential race with the obvious objective of winning the election at any price and regardless of the consequences, even if Troy were left burning, to continue with Tuchman’s logic. Much more to the point, AMLO chose to ignore, or intentionally not understand, the reason why the institutional framework of the last decades had been built. That is, like Trump, he dedicated himself to destroying without asking, without being interested in the why or the what for of each of these institutions, from the Supreme Court to the free trade agreements, passing through the commissions of telecommunications, competition, energy, transparency, etc. It is evident that it is always possible to optimize, make the governmental structure more efficient, and reduce expenses, but what was done throughout the last government and that was formalized in the constitution at the beginning of the current administration was irrational from the perspective of economic development and qualifies as madness under the aforementioned author’s yardstick.
On the political side, things have not been better. Morena achieved its objective of monopolizing the legislature, even if that violated the current legislation and regulations, and is on its way to subordinating and controlling the judiciary, with which it will take practically absolute control of the structure of the State. Furthermore, the entire strategy is exclusive, as if at least 40% of voters who opted for other political currents or a different institutional structure did not exist. It is still to be determined what the relationship between the party and the government will be, but there is no doubt that it will be a monopoly. The electorate endorsed it so that no one can dispute the legitimacy of the elections, but that does not deny the contradiction between this monopoly and the development objectives that the government has set. It is no coincidence that the country has seen practically no new investment from abroad and very little from national companies. When conditions are such that they discourage new projects, the country has been left with the mere reinvestment of profits but without new prospects for the growth that the administration aspires to. Not seeing, or not wanting to see, the contradiction is another facet of that same folly.
This is how things were in Mexico before Trump came to power in the U.S., and now we have to deal with the madness that comes from him. Still, it is impossible to pretend “national unity” when there is not even the slightest intention of correcting the political course, especially Morena’s dedication to the exclusion of almost half of the electorate, or of creating favorable conditions to attract investment on the economic side. Ultimately, the bet for growth through consumption depends on the economy growing quickly. Otherwise, the fiscal gap will grow even more, putting the country before risks that previous generations knew as crises that are not commendable for anyone.
The old Chinese proverb goes that crises are a mixture of danger and opportunity. Skillful handling of Trump suggests opportunity, but poor handling of the country’s future entails risk. The last thing we want is to fall into a crisis; it is better to skip it and get straight to opportunity, but that would require ending self-inflicted folly.
@lrubiof
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