Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
The assassination of Ximena Guzmán and José Muñoz in the middle of a Mexico City avenue added a murky and dark element to the country’s already troubled atmosphere. The political crisis and social unrest result from poor decisions made by the ruling movement. The lethal combination of arrogance and ignorance creates the perfect storm for the country to drift into uncontrollable chaos.
Faced with the chaos in Mexico, the federal government has opted for more authoritarian and centralist solutions to halt the coming debacle.
The economic situation is gently sliding into recession. All indicators point to a steady flight of dollars invested in government bonds, mainly CETES, although this is a low-intensity, not abrupt, flight. Formal sector unemployment is growing, nominal wages stagnate or decline, and informality is exploding. Inflation is rising (more than 4%), while prices for food and materials for industry and construction are rising at twice the rate of inflation (8% or more on average). The federal government’s cash flow is restricted because tax revenues are falling as domestic and industrial consumption slows.
The threat of tariffs, and the reality of some already in place, creates an environment of uncertainty for investment. Even Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Europe, Japan, and Korea as of June 1 does not bode well for the economic environment. And that dynamic, even though it is external, does hurt Mexico. As a result, there is visible restraint in private investment projects. At the same time, the public sector continues with its unsustainable investments, such as the Mayan Train, the Dos Bocas refinery, the AIFA airport and surrounding areas, the Mexicana airline, the mega-pharmacy, and the payment to private companies for the cancellation of the Texcoco airport.
The institutional deterioration of the country is part of the destruction of the rule of law symbolized by the election of judges, magistrates, and justices of the judiciary. No worse time could have been chosen for such an experiment in destabilizing the country’s institutional framework. The world looks at Mexico with horror at the specter of creating a judiciary composed of unconditional supporters of a single political party. It is yet another incentive for capital flight, given that there is no legal certainty in Mexico except in terms of agreements that an investor can establish with the president of the republic in office, whoever that may be.
The striking teachers are just the tip of the iceberg of social discontent in Mexico. However, their virulence and disruptive attitude attract attention. Something deeper is stirring there. It cannot be forgotten that Section 22 of Oaxaca, in particular, has always been led by clandestine guerrilla organizations that advocate armed revolution in Mexico. Their tentacles extend to the teachers’ union sections in Chiapas, Guerrero, Michoacán, Zacatecas, Mexico City, and other states. Their struggle is not primarily for economic or social demands. Their struggle for political power in Mexico is through armed struggle.
The president is offended because they will not sit down to resolve the demands of the teachers’ movement rationally. If that were the case, things would have been resolved long ago. But that is not the case today. There is an idea in the leaders’ minds that their struggle for political power can advance significantly now. What gives them that idea? Their closeness to Morena analysts and political leaders who believe, like the teachers’ leaders, that the moment of revolution is approaching and that this is the right time for radicalizing society. And it is happening at a special juncture: they consider the president politically weak, with little support in her own party and no control over Congress. That is the thinking of current and former Morena leaders. The same people within Morena are encouraging the continued radicalization of the teachers’ blockade. This was never seen when López Obrador was president. Who in Morena is promoting the destabilization of the country and the presidency through the teachers?
At the same time, the president intends to appoint Omar García Harfuch as czar of the fight against organized crime in Mexico. There is an opposing bloc that not only disagrees with Harfuch being the anti-crime czar but is actively blocking him. Opponents of the presidential policy include legislators, Morena leaders, the army, and the National Guard. These opponents receive moral support from Andrés Manuel López Obrador. The fundamental point of disagreement is that Harfuch is not respecting the agreements that the former president, the military, the National Guard, and Morena legislators made with segments of organized crime.
Congress does not want to approve new regulations that would give Harfuch broad powers to control intelligence gathering, its restricted distribution among security agencies, and the direction and decision-making on anti-crime operations throughout the country. To this end, he would be granted extensive financial and material resources, including weapons, to form police squads under his command.
Former President López Obrador suspects that Harfuch may have made many deals with the Trump administration that could harm him, even personally. This resentment within the ruling party ranks has created tension because of fears of a predictable reaction from the dark forces that will demand compliance with previously agreed-upon agreements. These dark forces will demand with good reason because they received a promise from the former president: the “Second Floor” of the Fourth Transformation will fully comply with its commitments. Why? Because the then-candidate and now president agreed on the same mold and discipline. She would respect all agreements until it was no longer possible.
Trump’s election complicated the situation in Mexico in terms of security and compliance with political agreements with organized crime. The president, with relative political strength, must make decisions on security matters. The US government’s offensive is coming, and it is coming strong. There will be no direct military invasion, but rather specific punitive actions that will alter the political forces in the country in many ways. Indirect actions are the most difficult to repel, because of their subtlety and because they touch on many internal interests.
This whole situation suddenly reached a breaking point with the assassination of Ximena and José. The message is for many, and not only, as has been suggested, for the head of the Mexico City government. It is also for Sheinbaum, Harfuch, López Obrador, and the cadre of Morena leaders who negotiated their electoral victories with local criminals. This sophisticated assassination operation speaks to all of them, warning them that commitments must be respected, or there will be consequences, as in everything in life. It is the murder of two people who unexpectedly became symbols of all those Morenistas who made deals with criminals, thinking that the time to pay would never come. They have been warned: the time has come to settle the score, courtesy of pressure from the United States.
The political, social, criminal, and economic breakdown of Mexico is rapidly reaching a boiling point. The sign of the times is conflict between everyone.
@rpascoep
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