Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
The only significant announcement that President López Obrador made about his conversation with President Biden last Friday was that it was agreed that the Mexican Foreign Minister would go to Washington the following Monday. The other comments were ambiguities common to his way of expressing himself: “cordial”, “friendly”, etc. Before the conversation, López Obrador had said he had no idea what Biden wanted to talk about.
In the “read-out” offered by the White House about the conversation between the two Presidents, it was emphasized that there was a previous agreement taken at the North American Leaders Summit in November 2021 to boost the region’s competitiveness in the global economy.
The challenges imposed on the region by the economic and political volatility caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine were also mentioned. For this reason, it is essential to make progress in the meetings and work of the High-Level Economic Dialogue.
They also discussed the upcoming Summit of the Americas, to be held in June in Los Angeles, California, and the need to promote the economic and social development of Central America and southern Mexico.
They recognized the shared interest in addressing migratory flows and emphasized the need to coordinate efforts with the region’s countries.
Adding ephemeris, they noted that December 12, 2022, marks the 200th anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations between the two nations.
The question that arises from this report offered by the White House on the conversation, and in the absence of information from the Mexican side, is what is the purpose of Ebrard’s hasty visit to Washington?
No explanation for the trip can be gleaned from the information offered. Therefore, we must resort to an indicative mechanism to extract some logic from the matter.
First, there is a lot of tension between Mexico and the United States on the issue of Central America and the Caribbean. The Caribbean Basin is heating up politically due to the confrontation between Mexico and the United States. While Kamala Harris is building a block between the United States, Costa Rica, Panama, and the Dominican Republic, united in the Alliance for Development in Democracy, López Obrador wants to create an alternative mechanism integrated by Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, El Salvador, and Cuba as a counterweight to the U.S. initiative. But, which government will be able to offer more support to these countries?
Second, according to diplomatic sources, there is a conflict over Cuba’s participation in the Summit of the Americas. Biden distrusts the Cubans because he considers that they betrayed Obama’s negotiation in good faith after reaching substantive agreements between both nations. Apparently, López Obrador insists that Cuba be invited to the Summit, threatening to withdraw Mexico’s participation in the event if the island is not present. The haste of the conversation between Biden and Lopez Obrador had to do with the Mexican president visiting Cuba next week. The tone of his speech during the visit will reveal whether or not he reached an agreement with Biden.
Third, everything suggests that the USMCA is about to enter troubled legal waters, as the Mexican government applies its interpretation of what the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation agreed on the electricity industry law and, although different, the new mining law adds an additional component of uncertainty for foreign investment.
Fourth, the immigration issue continues to put pressure on both governments. With goodwill, they may be able to agree to manage a difficult situation. Or, if they do not, the situation on the border could dangerously deteriorate, much to the complacency of organized crime. With a side note: most undocumented migrants returned to Mexico are not Central Americans. They are Mexicans.
Presumably, this is the menu Marcelo will take to Washington. Will he double down, as he did with Trump?
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