EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report analyzes the ten key risks that could impact the business environment and democratic governance in Mexico in 2025. The analysis is based on Integralia’s methodology, which evaluates each risk’s potential impact and likelihood using quantitative and qualitative indicators. Each risk has a distinct probability of occurrence, which may shift throughout the year.
Most of the risk scenarios are linked to the growing concentration and centralization of power within the federal Executive Branch, as well as the erosion of the system of checks and balances.
2025 is expected to bring heightened political risk, as the lack of effective oversight and accountability mechanisms for government authorities could encourage opacity and arbitrary decision-making.
It is worth noting that President Sheinbaum enjoys high approval ratings, and there is considerable optimism among Mexicans regarding the country’s direction. In this context, the government is likely to prioritize policies that sustain its popularity at the expense of initiatives aimed at fostering long-term economic growth and social development.
In the short term, this undermines the Mexican state’s capacity to capitalize on nearshoring opportunities. In the medium to long term, it erodes the competitiveness of the national economy and its productive potential.
Nine of the ten political risks identified by Integralia in January 2024 materialized. For instance, Morena’s electoral victory that allowed it to approve a constitutional amendment enabling the election of Supreme Court justices by popular vote. Additionally, that Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. would place Mexico in a vulnerable position.
Throughout the year, Integralia closely collaborates with its clients to monitor each risk scenario, aiming to jointly develop targeted mitigation strategies while identifying and leveraging growth opportunities.
For 2025, Integralia has identified the following ten risk scenarios as having the greatest potential impact on the business environment.
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