Antonio Navalón
At this moment, no one knows if these last hours that Claudia Sheinbaum is living before her inauguration as president of the United Mexican States are moments of joy or suffering. What we do know is that, so far, regardless of the circumstances, her loyalty is unquestionable. So far, she has demonstrated that she will be loyal to President Andres Manuel’s feelings, which later turned into law. We know that if the attitude of the Spaniards 500 years ago was reprehensible, that is enough for the current King not to be present at his inauguration. So far it seems that the mañaneras will continue to be the daily bread of Mexicans and the space where the agenda and the daily course of the country will be dictated. If, at first sight, everything or almost everything remains the same, the inevitable question arises: why change the leader?
The end of an era…or something like that. The beginning of another era…or something like that. The only sure thing is that, as of tomorrow, the precious presidential sash, the one that, just as Moctezuma’s plume turned men into Tlatoani, the one that makes the difference and is capable of changing everything, that sash will be worn tomorrow by a woman for the first time in the history of the country. That tricolor sash tomorrow – after 74 male rulers – will give Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo the honor of being the first woman to govern the country. And then what will happen? After that will come the consolidation – or the attempt thereof – of all that has been said, promised, and desired.
It seems clear that we will not be able to escape the inevitable dependence on the United States in the short term. Not only is our neighbor to the North our biggest trading partner, but also, in a certain sense, it has become our biggest enemy if we take into account the problems derived from the eternal enigma of what is permissible for the cartels and everything that happened during the now defunct six-year term of Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
No more bullets and let the hugs come. I will not wear black again nor will I cry – an act that would be justified – for the almost two hundred thousand dead of the six-year term that ends tomorrow. I will say that the line and program maintained by the six-year term at the beginning of the 4T leaves only two alternatives: the peaceful -and I hope constructive- coexistence between the cartels and the State is definitively consolidated, or the State wins the battle. At the end of the day, if history has taught us anything, it is that all countries have corruption and mafias and suffer challenges that threaten their internal security; the difference is that what saves or kills a State is its capacity to face any threat that comes its way. Otherwise, if force only serves to be displayed in parades, the State will undoubtedly not be able to survive the challenge posed by external forces fighting against it.
Sheinbaum knows that the CUSMA/USMCATMEC is much more than one of the largest economic operations in the world. She is aware that it is a treaty that has potentiated North America’s commercial and economic integration, that it is a trilateral trade relationship that 2023 reached more than 1.5 trillion dollars, and that this agreement represents more than 3 million jobs related to its implementation. She also knows that the trade exchange between Mexico and the United States alone – which in 2023 exceeded 800 billion dollars – is vital for the country’s livelihood. She is aware that part of what saved the United States after the disastrous economic crisis of 1929 was the creation and development of the largest domestic market in the world at the time. Today, the CUSMA/USMCA/TMEC, comprised of Mexico, the United States, and Canada, is one of the world’s leading domestic markets.
While the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership that integrates the countries that make up ASEAN and other countries, the reality is that, with less than 500 million people and proportionally, the CUSMA/USMCA/TMEC produces more millions of dollars than any other trade bloc in the world. But, more importantly, the structure and geographic advantage of the treaty gives unbeatable and privileged strength to the three countries that comprise it. Therefore, make no mistake, what the former Foreign Minister and new Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, is going to take care of is the component of greatest strategic and national security value that – besides the fight against drug trafficking – Mexico, the United States and Canada currently have, which is the correct application of the CUSMA/USMCA/TMEC.
The CUSMA/USMCA/TMEC is not only an economic instrument but an agreement that ensures the coexistence and sustained growth of the three countries involved. It is an agreement that will ensure the disappearance for a long time of any doubts as to why the dollar should continue to be the currency that dominates, regulates and governs the economic life of this planet. In my opinion – despite the banks, China, Russia, or the irruption of India – as long as the CUSMA/USMCA/TMEC remains solid and in operation, it is very difficult for any currency to replace the global power of the dollar in the economy.
Mexico cannot sign a treaty of this dimension in the morning only to disregard it in the afternoon. You are either in or you are out of the CUSMA/USMCA/TMEC. In the meantime, all investments made under this treaty – as was the case with the old NAFTA – will enjoy a legal safeguard that will in turn serve as a guarantee. This does not set aside or replace the fact that it is clearly preferable to have a reliable and consolidated legal structure. But since in this case this is not possible, it is clear that – as promised in the reform to the Judicial Branch – soon, very soon, although nobody knows exactly when, we will again have a legal scheme in our country. What will it be and how will it work? That is something I do not know. I know that any investment made under the CUSMA/USMCA/TMEC framework will enjoy full protection from the three countries that comprise it and also from the International Court of Arbitration.
I don’t know how much game-playing ability the new President Sheinbaum will have in adjusting national security and cartel dynamism. I know the room for maneuvering regarding the CUSMA/USMCA/TMEC and the trilateral relationship is very limited. Proclamations can be made every day, communiqués can be issued, or any other type of maneuver. However, at the end of the day, the question is very simple: Does Mexico want to be part of the CUSMA/USMCA/TMEC or not?
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