Antonio Navalón.
2023 will be a more exciting year than it seems, not only because of what has already happened up to this point and with the preamble of the North American Leaders Summit, but also because between this year and the beginning of the next, the candidates who will seek to occupy the top positions of power in Mexico and the United States will be defined. Next year in our country, we will place a piece of paper in a ballot box marking who will lead us for the next six years; the same will happen in the United States by pressing an option on a tablet. 2024 will be the year of elections. However, this year is the one that will define, to a great extent, the future of the one that follows.
The upcoming Mexican and U.S. elections will be the first to occur amid the new macroeconomic context that today accompanies the world and that is being forged in parallel to the implementation of the CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC. Both presidential elections coincide at a critical moment that will significantly mark the future of what happens within each country and what happens in the bilateral relationship. From the political point of view and considering the circumstances and behaviors, it is convenient to remember and establish under what situations and conditions we will elect President next year.
We are looking for a President, and that President is not spontaneous, nor will he come from Mars, but is already among us and is part of the chain of errors or successes of the group to which he belongs and with whom he is surrounded. “Effective suffrage, no reelection” was the slogan adopted by Francisco Madero in his 1910 political campaign. Today, it is an expression that continues to watch over and seek to preserve the sovereignty of the Mexican people but, above all, the efficiency of the country’s democratic tools and practices. Hence, whether it is pleasing or not in the eyes of President López Obrador, the new occupant of the National Palace will be the one who must enforce this principle and reaffirm that democracy is still in force in our territory.
We arrive at the first election in which, after a conscientious and significant attack, we will take a giant leap into the void. For more than twenty-five years, we could feel proud of our walk in the guarantee that stealing votes or altering elections was difficult. And it was, first, thanks to the pressure exerted by civil society. Second, due to the democratic commitment of Mexicans to the transparency of elections; and third, thanks to the excellent behavior and structure of what was first the IFE and is now known as INE. Since we are lovers of risk and living amid uncertainty, these will be the first elections in a vacuum.
We have not succeeded in destroying INE and all the security we had until now, from a legal point of view – but we have succeeded in destroying it morally and in terms of the trust. This government, the one that has received the most votes in the history of Mexican democracy, never had a problem proving its history. However, its victory that was defended – although it did not need much defense – and legalized by INE has not stayed there but has gone further. The current administration has decided to bring the sins of the past to the present and has used them to undermine the confidence and authority of what, until this moment, was the maximum electoral referent of the country.
And now what? We will see if the next elections will be held in a similar framework to the consultation that was made to not build the Texcoco airport or those made to reaffirm the grand projects of the six-year term. We shall see whether or not the electoral process – regardless of the gigantic and, as far as we can see, useless cost of the next election – will have the same guarantee as one of the assemblies by a show of hands that our President likes so much. What is certain is that no matter how it is put and no matter how it is done, INE no longer has the safety belt that gives confidence and defense to a substantial part of the population. Besides, we will have to see how much damage lies do in power since, as it is seen, this is a problem that goes back to the ancient Greeks up to our days, despite proving that lies are being told or that reality is being altered from power, there is still no human solution to punish this type of misconduct.
Cases such as that of Justice Minister Yasmín Esquivel, who every day it becomes more apparent that there is no way she will resign from her position and, even if she were to leave, we would be in the middle of one of those legal debates in which the saying ” when the law is made, the trap is made” applies, in countries such as ours, they serve as a reminder that the laws clearly specify what must be done. However, as is our situation, there is always a back door to get out of the crisis if necessary. In addition to the moral disqualification that the plagiarism deserves, everything that has happened and, above all, the attitude towards the fact, there is no legal way to remove Minister Esquivel from her position. Likewise, all the decisions she has made in her legal career are by the law, even though she – at least on paper and theoretically – has no right to be considered a professional in the specialty she practices.
The most violent and terrible thing is that once you are caught in a fault, you commit a crime. From a crime, you move on to an assertion to finally demonstrate that you do not get to power by simply taking a walk. And in the end, not only will the Justice Minister not leave but this precedent will be marked in the history of such a valuable institution for the justice of Mexicans as the Supreme Court. If I were a member of the Esquivel Mossa family, the first thing I would wish for is peace. Because it is clear that if she does not resign, we will not cease in the matter and not only because it is worse than others – no, I do not mean that – but because in the behavior of our genesis, of our system, within our DNA is to pursue to the end the fallen, as well as to adore until the last moment the one who governs us. These are the elements with which we start this pre-electoral year in which we will also have to define what matters more to us, that the world is as we long for it or that it be in a way that allows all of us to grow and develop.
The CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC demands unambiguous definitions that, whether we like it or not, we will have to make. Are we going to bet on Mexico becoming the El Dorado of the new economic development of North America or not? Will we bet on continuing to have forty million people living in poverty? This last point is vital to clarify, above all, to know and clearly define if we will continue to use the poor as part of the power structure in office and as a guarantee of votes to be received. We also have to determine if we will continue to opt for the systemic destruction of education, which has not only been attacked in an inclement manner during the last few years but also leaves millions of children in the streets and many mothers without much margin of hope. And the fact is that, up to this point in our country’s history, the State has fallen far short of breaking the barriers and chains of poverty that can be mitigated through education.
In short, it is difficult to know how we are going to prepare, how we are going to put, or in what way we are going to make the electoral offers. But what is certain, believe me, is that those offers will not be full of local fights among the corcholatas (Official pre-candidates) or among the internal contradictions that all the power groups have at the moment of fighting to revalidate it. What the electoral proposals will result in 2024 remains to be seen. What we need more than ever are coherence and seriousness, but above all, the definition of a model that allows growth and development for all and not just for a few. I do not believe that we can convince all the people that what is best for them is poverty and clientelistic dependence on a government and, at the same time, that the only electoral offer revolves around blaming the past for all the ills of the present.
Further Reading: