Antonio Navalón
It is written that men unleash hell by promising the heavens. History is full of excesses. Excesses are sometimes committed in the name of the gods, most of the time in what we humans deserve, and other times of hunger, justice, and equality. The problem is that all these promises and excesses usually lead to hell. It is inevitable to recognize that we are so absorbed in the agenda of the whims, caprices, stubbornness, and cunning- which in the Mexican case, we must admit are many and very noticeable- that, little by little, our brains become absorbed. Gradually, our intellect loses the capacity to see things globally, and we think, respond and move according to the promise of the heavens made to us by our President. Many times we tiptoe past the hells he is leading us into.
I do not want to continue to be part of the chorus of those who criticize President López Obrador. And I say this because we have reached a point where criticism is no longer enough. The time has come when it is necessary to do summations, present balance sheets, and deliver concrete facts. And from that point of view, I humbly recognize that the Mexican president is way ahead of me. In fact, he is ahead of us all. With his courageous honesty, he continues to make us believe in the promises he makes. It is a practice he has been doing since he was the Head of Government of Mexico City, then the Federal District. Since that time, who is now President of Mexico, in his mañaneras, he used to answer and justify everything under the dictates of his finger. And now, we are a country at the tip of the President’s finger where everything happens fast and with someone who can move the cocktail shaker of national emotions in such a way that no one can truly take into account what he says, what he does and where he is leading us into.
Currently, there are several Presidents in serious difficulty—presidencies in trouble. Really – including President Vladimir Putin, who is facing the consequences of disinformation coming from his intelligence services thinking that the Russian military was unstoppable, that his military tour of Ukraine would be a cakewalk, and that the Ukrainian people would easily fall apart – many administrations around the world are in trouble. In the case of Russia, an invasion that was thought to culminate easily and quickly ended up being the biggest fiasco since Josef Stalin’s failed invasion of Finland.
Putin is in trouble as he either pushes the red button and starts playing with nuclear weapons or pulls out through an intelligent peace treaty. Moreover, at this point, Putin would need a figure like Leon Trotsky who would be able to articulate a Brest-Litovsk-like treaty to explain why the disaster in Ukraine is not going to take away not only the fame and capability of a military that passed for unstoppable but has also cast doubt on its intelligence services. It may even be inexplicable how someone who can be so decisive – as when he succeeded in placing a President in the United States – is failing, point by point, because of all the miscalculations made for him and that he believed in his Ukrainian war.
Putin’s problem lies in how to negotiate or how to withdraw. In addition, there is a question that needs to be considered and cannot be excluded, which is, if he is indeed seriously ill – as is claimed – and if his future is not certain, what will make him stop? Now, wholly surrounded and having produced an effect utterly contrary to what he sought – Russian security through controlling the military and intelligence flow from Ukraine – he has caused NATO to change its plans and actions. Although NATO is not physically present on Ukrainian soil, it is thereby sending arms and the support that the Western world is giving to the regime of Volodymir Zelensky. But not only that, but the actions of the Russian leader have led countries such as Sweden, Finland, and Poland – that is, most of the countries surrounding Russia – to join or intend to join the Atlantic alliance.
But, as much as one may think, Putin is not alone, and the future is still a coin flip. For a leader like Putin, who is a half thug and half intelligence specialist, and who has made revenge, hatred, and force his system of governance, finding himself in a threatening situation is very dangerous. For someone who despises politicians and has as much of a warlord’s view of himself as Josef Stalin did in his day, his pride is one of his most precious treasures. And while Putin’s big problem lies in how to get out of where he is stuck, the big problem and the world’s big worry is that his exit will not be in the form of a mushroom cloud.
If the Russian President is not alone, the opposite is true for us Mexicans. Although we have not invaded anyone, the reality is that -whether we know it or not or whether we want to accept it or not- we have been plagued by foreign armies, which in this case are the armies made up of those who act outside the framework of the Law.
It is well known that you may enter the mafia, but you never get out. It is also known that the bad thing about serving those who have no other law than the tip of their gun or the whim of their strength won by blood and fire against others always ends badly. It is known that since the Cosa Nostra – incidentally invented by the Spaniards in Sicily at the time of the Catholic King – organized crime has been evolving and diversifying. And it has done so in such a way that today it is a force present in many more areas and sectors than we imagine, even forming part of the world’s most important financial and industrial networks. Nor is it a new fact that no one can stand up to them. But, above all, it is well known that the great challenge for any ruler is not to prevent evil but to ensure that the strength of the State is sufficient and superior to that of its enemies.
Unfortunately, this is not something that can be said of our country. There is no country with more mafias, more developed, or more perfect than the United States. Yet so far – and despite the growing hatred among Americans, internal destruction, and ever-increasing polarization, even though they are more divided than ever – the strength of the American State has always been greater than that of any mafia. It has been superior to the Italian mafia, the Irish mafia, or the Jewish mafia. On U.S. soil, any mafia has been crushed by the needs of the State.
The President of Mexico is not alone either. Although you may not know it, I forget it occasionally, and although it is hard to believe, the world does not revolve around the mañaneras. Mexico is not a planet that orbits outside the planet Earth. The President of Mexico knows very well where he stands and where he has put us. I also believe that he plays with the idea that none of us can exactly figure out the problem that lies ahead of us every day and every morning. In a nutshell, a problem boils down to the following questions, which – be it his own or those who are against him – once in power, will be able to govern with an economy and infrastructure handed over to the military and security handed over to drug traffickers? Who will be able to live with being a convicted and confessed enemy of the United States of America? Who will be able to live with accounts of economic failure such as those that will undoubtedly be put at the service of the six-year term? After all that we live through and with ever-increasing homicide rates, what will be left?
Finally, it is necessary to question and analyze how the President will withdraw from his three great star projects. Projects that the only thing that is clear to them is that they have exceeded the tax forecast and the money needed to invest. Projects that it is doubtful they will be able to return to the nation what has been invested. In fact, when will the Felipe Angeles International Airport be profitable? Indeed, when will Dos Bocas refine its first liter of fuel? When – without destroying one of the most beautiful ecological heritages in the world – will we have a Mayan Train that has served for something more than altering the balance of the jungle and destroying all the natural treasures that pass through the presidential mega-project?
Presidencies in trouble. Let’s hope that what they sell us as heaven does not become the worst of hells.
