Federico Reyes Heroles
One would like to believe that the President has started to correct course. Very harsh critics like Carlos Loret de Mola have expressed this. Carlos maintains his still dubious position. 1.- Security: the hugs have disappeared. 2.- Health: the appointment of Eduardo Clark, who, from the beginning, accepted the shortages. It is a first step, but it continues, and is serious. 3.- Mexicana de Aviación: It reduces operations, but we are still throwing money away. 4. Nursery schools: They are returning and being renamed. 5.- Segalmex to Diconsa: the loss of prestige could not be more significant. 6.- Debt: To stop its growth is recognizing that the financial markets can punish our country. However, these glimmers of common sense are not enough.
The IMF puts US growth for 2025 at 2.7%. For Mexico, the most optimistic forecasts are around 1%. But, given the economic behavior of recent months, others claim that we are entering a recession. No matter how much they claim, foreign investment has not grown, and important sectors of our economy, such as construction, are declining (23.5%). Consumption is stagnating. The hated IMF, in its forward-looking realism, sees the Mexican economy falling from 13th to 15th position by 2025. Spain and Australia will overtake us. The healthy ambition of reaching the top ten is receding. The mortal wound bleeding certainty dry is the reform of the Judiciary, furiously ratified by Sheinbaum. An independent and professional judiciary is a central requirement of a true rule of law. The traps set by Morena—denounced by Roberto Gil Zuarth—to guarantee control of key courts are coming to light. What perversity! Many investor advisors suggest to their clients not to invest in Mexico or to associate with companies that can litigate abroad or, at the very least, agree to arbitration.
The absurdities of suicidal austerity continue. The possibility of renewing ambassadors and consuls who are an embarrassment is limited by the lack of funds from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for their transportation of household goods. Meanwhile, Mexicana de Aviación has cost us around 35 billion pesos – plus whatever accumulates – the National Institute of Access to Information disappeared for a thousand. The Mexican state is languishing. The new pensions for women will cost just as much. Where will the money come from? Without growth due to mistrust, the main taxes, such as VAT and income tax, will not be collected anymore. “The best social program is for people to have jobs,” it was not a neoliberal who said this, but Clara Brugada, in a display of realism. Hopefully, they will listen to her.
Many of us wish Sheinbaum well in her administration. It would be good for Mexico and everyone. But for that to happen, Sheinbaum needs to ratify that common sense clearly prevails. Putting genetically modified corn in the Constitution is an aberration.
The sword of recall hangs over Sheinbaum. For many, that explains her risky caution. Others are sure she is convinced of 4T as an economic “model” (?). By leaving his son as the dominant figure in Morena, by showing off his ability to protect his untouchables, from the former director of Pemex to Garduño (because of his good experiences), AMLO, wherever he is, in Chiapas or the Zócalo, shows his enormous real power. The problem is that the national disaster could be huge if Sheinbaum does not make corrections quickly in finance, growth, employment, and even security. The Armed Forces have denied García Harfuch the resources he was promised. Chiapas is burning despite the efforts of the new governor. Tabasco is exploding. Sinaloa has been in flames for five months. In addition, the arrested drug traffickers in the US have many stories to tell. Could they implicate the former president? That will be the crux of the matter, the explanation.
Betting on a repeal could be a tragic illusion. The worst-case scenario would involve a crisis, anger from the boss, and punishment. She has to choose. Arriving without a crisis is her salvation.
There is no time.
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