Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, like the character in Dickens’ novel, refuses to leave the Presidency and establishes himself in the corridors of the National Palace. He is a ghostly presence in that place of decisions, but he also has a physical presence. He has an office near the President’s office, supervises every decision, and makes decisions when he deems it convenient.
His presence, virtual and real, only confirms Claudia Sheinbaum’s dilemma as President of the Republic. Every day, she faces a challenge in front of her office. She faces a power even greater than her own. And yet, she is nominally the head of the Federal Executive.
Recognizing reality is vital to meeting the requirements of a new and unusual situation of split power. Acknowledging the dual power governing Mexico makes it possible to explain many things that happen in the Morenista ecosystem.
It turns out that today, AMLO enjoys the power he had in 2018, with the qualified majority, but did not know what to do with it. In 2021, when he lost the qualified majority, he understood, for the first time, what he had to do to perpetuate himself in power. He turned the federal government militantly into his party. He used the budget, including the country’s indebtedness, as a weapon to literally make the country vote for his party and his candidate. He organized the army, directed it in all its electoral stages, and considered victory his.
Just when he knows for the first time how to take all the power, the Political Constitution of the United Mexican States forces him to always stay away from power and the Presidency. He considers that this restriction is absolutely unfair. But when has the Constitution been an obstacle to achieving any objective? Never! The Constitution is only obeyed when it suits his interests and projects. When it does not, it does not. The same with the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation (SCJN). It is ignored when it does not respect the President’s wishes. Furthermore, the SCJN was eliminated from the Constitution when it became an unacceptable obstacle.
The agenda of the President who won the elections in June is AMLO’s agenda. Obviously, she categorically states that it is her agenda. But she has to recognize, already at the pinnacle of power, that by the work and grace of the destruction of the Judicial Power, her six-year term will pass without functional justice and by accepting that the insane process of dismantling the justice system to continue, she condemns Mexico to be a lawless country during her six-year term and possibly the next one. And she accepts the politicization of law and justice in Mexico.
She will be responsible for the irresponsibility of AMLO’s decisions and impositions. And she is so because she allows dual power to exist in Mexico. There is the nominal power of the President and the omnipresent power of the former (?) President López Obrador.
In addition, having appointed his son as leader of the Morena party, AMLO devotes his time to what he did as President: prepare for the 2027 elections and promote his loyal cadres in the Chamber of Deputies and governorships. In this way, he will be able to continue controlling not only the party but also the parliamentary majority, the legislative agenda, and more: the agenda of the President in 2027 and at the end of her term in 2030. The most important and the culmination of his political “work” will be to nominate the presidential candidate and the candidate for the head of the Government of Mexico City in 2030.
Signs of conflict in the dual power mechanism have been seen at various times, especially in the eventful legislative process. When the process of eliminating the SCJN’s capacity to annul constitutional changes approved by Congress in the so-called “Legislative Supremacy” moved forward, the President expressed, with a certain naivety, that she was not aware of the intention. Of course, she did not know! López Obrador ordered it directly to the parliamentary leaders without consulting the President.
The appointment of the President of the National Human Rights Commission (CNDH) in the person of Rosario Piedra was against the President’s express candidate, Nashieli Ramirez Hernandez. AMLO pushed Piedra and won the vote against Ramirez Hernandez. It was a direct confrontation between the President and AMLO, where, apart from defining the Presidency of the CNDH, it was an exercise to know who controls the senators and deputies in Mexico. The result is evident.
Congress has been the most notorious forum of dual power in Mexico, but it is not the only one. Another area of conflict is the President’s policy towards organized crime. Omar García Harfush is a character that López Obrador detests with particular fervor since he has the President’s complete confidence. Although Congress granted him plenipotentiary powers in the fight against organized crime, that directive contradicts AMLO’s conciliatory policies. Harfush implements a policy of active confrontation with drug trafficking and defense of the citizenry, which ruins the negotiations that both AMLO and Adán Augusto López held with the Sinaloa Cartel.
Security analyst José Luis Pliego has analyzed the obstacles placed in the way of Harfush’s task by AMLO’s operators in all instances of the Legislative and Executive branches, opposed to the President. Harfush’s approval of his new functions was delayed until almost the end of the legislative term. And the Chamber of Deputies agreed to a considerable budget reduction for the SSC.
Nor have almost 10,000 elements of the police career been transferred from the National Guard as sabotage from the Army to the Secretary of Civil Security. Nor have more than 50 strategic installations throughout the national territory been handed over to him. Nor have aircraft owned by the Secretariat been handed over to him. All this, courtesy of the new Secretary of the Interior and former Secretary of Civil Security. They have not delivered weapons that are property of the Secretariat. Finally, the peace roundtables within Civil Security were abruptly transferred to the Interior, removing Harfush’s capacity for citizen contact.
In short, the Legislative Branch, the Army, and the Interior are waging war against Harfush. This offensive bears the distinctive seal of López Obrador. In essence, those instances do not seem to endorse a policy of confrontation and containment of organized crime; instead, they seem to endorse the Obradorist policy of making a pact with the narco under the guise of “hugs, not bullets.” To sabotage Harfush is to undermine the President.
This whole route describes the impossibility of dual power in Mexico. And it poses grave dangers to peace and institutional stability in Mexico. The thread will break at the thinnest point. The big question is: when?
@rpascoep
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