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The Future of U.S.-Mexico Relations Under Trump

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Antonio Navalón

Credit where credit’s due. President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo has shown that the best way to deal with Donald Trump is with a cool head, in contrast to Justin Trudeau’s impulsive strategy. However, when analyzing the facts with perspective, it is inevitable to ask ourselves if deploying 28,000 soldiers was already excessive and if adding 10,000 more is not just a matter of reinforcing an agreement that was an imposition from the beginning.

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History tends to surprise us with unexpected turns, but what Trump is doing is nothing new. His strategy is the same as always as if he were starring in another season of “The Apprentice,” where, at any moment, he will say to someone: “You’re fired!” alluding to a phrase used on the legendary program. His plan is clear: to dismantle old politics, abandon international organizations such as the United Nations and the World Bank, and reinforce his slogan of “America First” or his disturbing and insatiable desire to “make America great again.”

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To reconstruct his vision of a great United States, Trump must first dismantle others and use any action or strategy to achieve his goal. In this sense, he is very clear about the real solution for immigration – both legal and illegal – or with one of his main objectives: eradicating organized crime that affects the territory he governs. But, above all, Trump knows and is aware that to achieve everything he sets out to do, he has the greatest tool of power: the 800 military bases, which, like the Roman Empire in its time, remind the world that, beyond speeches and principles, he who has the force imposes the rules.

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More than a century ago, President Theodore Roosevelt and his Secretary of State, John Hay, debated the legitimacy of turning the United States into an empire. Those discussions forged the nation’s identity. However, Trump is not interested in his country’s history or legacy. His promise is something else: to restore the United States and its citizens to their youth, glory, and image as invincible cowboys.

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Donald Trump wants the world to admire and aspire to be like the United States of America again. He wants the American dream to once again be present in the minds of societies as an unattainable and enviable dream. The cost? He doesn’t care. Others will pay the price, whether they like it or not, no matter how high it may be.

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Let’s not fool ourselves. I don’t know what Trump will do when March 4th rolls around, when the extension on tariffs expires. But I do know that he is someone who, like any good showman, will always look for ways to get attention and stand out for his performances. When the time comes, he may choose mercy and say, “I forgive you, and for now, I’ll look the other way,” or, on the contrary, he may decide to harden his stance with a clear message: “I didn’t like what you did with the opportunity I gave you.” The fact is that, deep down, the governors linked to drug trafficking at that time will remain in their posts, and the migration crisis will continue unresolved; although an initial agreement has been reached that has made it possible to postpone tariffs, it will not be possible to ignore the fact that the current occupant of the Oval Office has, through an official White House communication, labeled Mexico a narco-state.

Screenshot: on X.com

Trump does not want to act or be remembered as a good leader. He wants to be the embodiment of strength, the manly side, and unquestionable authority. He seeks to be remembered more than to have been the first candidate to beat female candidates twice. Donald J. Trump seeks to consolidate his place in history as the man who brought back the great American empire.

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Given the circumstances, President Sheinbaum’s reaction is not only a response to Trump; it is also an internal message and an inevitable comparison with the previous government’s handling, of which she was a part. According to Mike Pompeo, Trump’s former Secretary of State between 2018 and 2021, they had never seen a government break down and give in so easily to US pressure as on that occasion when the negotiation ended with the sending of 28,000 troops “for free,” as Trump later put it.

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Today, with practically the same actors on the scene, we are reliving a chapter that can be described as neither historic nor glorious. On two occasions, under the threat of tariffs, we have allowed a man with delusions of grandeur to question Mexico’s sovereignty and risk the country’s stability.

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The border problem will not be solved with soldiers or temporary operations; it would have to be fixed with a structural change in the socio-economic conditions of the area. Meanwhile, what the country needs is leadership. We need President Sheinbaum to act like one. We need her and her administration to help us regain and strengthen the confidence that comes from knowing we are in good hands.

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If she and her team do not take the initiative to resolve internal problems, history will repeat itself sooner or later and could have worse consequences and results. If we do not act and seek effective solutions, we will have the same military problem with the United States and the same military problem with drug traffickers. However, unlike other times, the solution will be imposed on us from outside this time.

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