Federico Reyes Heroles
“Furthermore, drug trafficking organizations have an intolerable alliance with the Mexican government … (which) has provided a safe haven for cartels to engage in the manufacture and transportation of dangerous narcotics that, together, have led to overdose deaths for hundreds of thousands of American victims. This alliance jeopardizes the national security of the United States …” Clearer?
That is the Core of the discussion. The tariffs are a weapon to shake up the Mexican government. Is the accusation a surprise? Not at all. For six years, it was pointed out that the now former president’s attitude was not erratic but strategic: “hugs, not bullets,” inaction against certain cartels, mockery of US warnings, and five visits to Badiraguato (27,000 inhabitants)—including the friendly greeting to El Chapo’s mother and the warning to return in June 2024.
He was received like a rock star. The same in the “Golden Triangle”. In Acapulco, devastated (800,000 inhabitants) by Otis, he never came into contact with the people. The expression “narco-president” was not a campaign by the enemies of the 4T. Their link was evident and gross. What would they know in the US? Vice-president Vance spoke of the “era of consequences” for Mexico. Sheinbaum inherited this and the destruction of the judiciary, among others. Calling for unity with a narco-government – the accomplices are there for all to see – is absurd.
However, Trump knows the dire consequences of applying these tariffs for the American consumer. That is the tremendous silent but active interlocutor. Just look at the reaction on social networks in the 24 hours following Trump’s announcement. In this respect, Mexico has a massive field of conquest in the consciousness of the citizens, who, for the most part, are unaware of the multiple advantages of trade liberalization. The impoverished Secretariat of Foreign Affairs could use her vast consular network to spread the word. Let’s work on that. From the F 150 pickup to beer (bravo to Modelo for its propaganda of authentic national defense), tequila, and avocado – the Super Bowl is coming with guacamole – raspberry, blackberry, pepper, beef, strawberry and many others. Mexico is the US’s largest source of vegetable imports (63%), and fruits and dried fruits take 47% of the market. They know that the “general winter” does not give pause. In addition, the US automotive chain passes through Mexico. I don’t think Trump wants to revive the much-feared inflation. That explains the Federal Reserve’s caution.
Having seen Sheinbaum achieve the remarkable feat of putting the entry into force of tariffs on hold (a very fashionable expression), let us now take a cold look at what can really strengthen the Mexican State. To begin with, it should give sovereignty the place it deserves in the 21st century and not demagogically reproduce what Jean Bodin said in the 17th century. In the 21st century, sovereignty does not exist as an absolute. All Nation-States are subject to another axiological level of values derived from multiple civilizational conventions and agreements that emerged in the 20th century, from human rights to war relations or the production of atomic weapons or trade. If Sheinbaum wants to defend Mexico, she needs to shake off the stench of narco-state quickly. Rescue the Armed Forces from the doubt about their complicity. Without it, they are a great asset. She will have to rethink reforming the judiciary since foreign investment has not grown anymore, mainly due to the politicization of the judiciary. She could also carefully consider the idea of a North American security agreement, which Eduardo Guerrero has insisted on to achieve regulated cooperation. The information that is already there can go a long way.
Combating anti-immigrant phobia in a country with a fertility rate of 1.66 children per woman does not require much imagination.
Realism instead of demagoguery will help us succeed.
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