Luis Rubio
Years ago, during my student days, I attended a performance of an experimental theatrical work that, I think, was called Chaos in the Scenario. It was a parody of an orchestra conductor who could not decide which work to interpret. Each of the orchestra’s instruments attempted to convince him to select the score that would allow for the greater showing off of its instrument and played small selections of those works to exert pressure for its proposal. Since the conductor would come to a decision, passions flared in parallel to the volume of the music until the play ended up in absolute scenic and acoustic chaos.
After last Sunday, it is crucial to give serious and careful thought to how Mexican politics will advance from next October on, if not before. The election produced a return to the party monopoly but from a party that is not a party. Morena, a “movement” that responds to a sole individual, its only source of cohesion and contention, will now pass on to a leadership that has never been a relevant political factor, leaving more questions than answers concerning both the next president as well as to her predecessor. And many more questions about the future of the country.
Mexicans will have a presidency legitimized by an overwhelming popular vote, qualified majorities (or close to it) in both legislative chambers, and nearly total “control” of the national territory. However, control here is a relative term because no one controls anything in today’s Mexico, starting with Morena itself. López Obrador attained an extraordinary milestone, the product of his personality and political shrewdness, but those elements are neither transmittable nor repeatable. No one else will achieve the appearance of control garnered by President López Obrador. The question then is how to function.
According to Max Weber, there are three types of authority: the traditional, the charismatic, and the legal-rational. The president has been a charismatic figure (which surely explains 80% of the result). Notwithstanding that, charismatic authority is not inheritable, and Mexico does not possess traditional characteristics of leadership. Historically, the non-existence of traditional structures or exceptional charisma was what led to institutionalization. Paradoxically, then, the winner in the polls could come to be the great institutional transformer. I cannot imagine any other scenario under which she could be successful within the current political context.
The typical and traditional manner of acting in Mexico’s government was to fill potholes. I remember a newspaper headline during a presidential campaign some decades ago in which a woman from the state of San Luis Potosí told the candidate, “Better cover up the ravine instead of pulling the ox out every six years.” What’s facile, typical of Mexican politics, has always been the easy way out: settle the immediate problem to avoid engaging in a substantive transformation. But this election and the complex political reality the country finds itself in does not lend itself to that. What’s key would be to turn a politically complex scenario into an inclusive and broadly based summons for institutional change that truly transforms the country or that, at least, lays the ground for that to happen. In other words, to cover up the ravine, as in the previous example.
Last Sunday night, there were two emblematic speeches: that of the election winner and that of the president of Morena. There is no way to hide the contradiction of visions, postures, and realities in the interior of Morena that were exhibited there. While the next president was conciliatory and revealed a complete understanding of her new role as leader of the entire citizenry, her party’s head accentuated the divisions and the polarization, to a degree even infrequent for the outgoing president. The contrast illustrates the exceptional complexity of the political management soon to be required. And of the challenge for the next president.
The country’s situation is increasingly difficult in the fiscal arena, in the relationship with the United States, in the reigning corruption, and security, at least four of the most precarious spaces and ones clamoring for immediate attention. Being able to confront them is going to require an unusual capacity of political articulation because, while these might appear to be technical issues, confronting them will require exceptional political skills to bring together interests in conflict, build complicated alliances, and maintain the control of groups that, in addition to being violent and belligerent, are part of the movement called Morena. And, to fill the plate to overflowing, there is the agenda of constitutional reforms, AMLO’s toy chest, which, were they to be approved, would deepen the divisions and place at risk not only the next government but also the whole nation. How will the new president do it to contain all these factors so that the country does not come apart in her hands?
The country is exhausted, and each of the rubrics the next government team will soon have to tackle will demand uniting rather than polarizing. Critical decisions regarding crucial appointments (e.g., Defense, Treasury) and criteria that could divert from the current administration will demand exceptional political talent. In addition, the first great challenge lies closer to home: imposing limits on President López Obrador and resolving the relationship between the two. Without that, there is no future.
The citizenry should come around to support the victor of this presidential election and trust that she will succeed in this central task.
@lrubiof
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